WP: Poland was not ready for a modern war
Poland has been preparing for war for years, but has not taken into account the latest hybrid threats, writes The Washington Post. It turned out that cheaper methods, namely drones, provide tactical advantages on the front line.
Aaron Wiener
While European countries are racing to build up their armed forces, Poland has already strengthened its military capabilities — but it was preparing for a conventional war, not for hybrid threats such as drones.
With the start of the Russian special operation in Ukraine in 2022, countries across Europe promised to become like Poland.
Governments began to build up their armed forces. Factories switched from civilian products to tanks and airplanes. At the insistence of US President Donald Trump, European NATO member countries pledged last year to spend 5% of their GDP on security, defense and related infrastructure.
However, some countries had difficulties even with the previous NATO standard of 2% of GDP, and Poland reached 4.7% last year, the highest rate in the North Atlantic Alliance. Poland is only the fifth most populous country in the European Union and the sixth largest economy — but it has the largest standing army in the bloc.
And while Europe is still rearming, taking into account the double threat of "Russian aggression" and the indifference of the United States, Poland has already achieved this. At least, judging by the dry numbers. The catch is that, despite all attempts to increase its potential, the very nature of the threat has changed.
<...> There is no doubt that Poland is a model of European militarization. However, it is unclear whether this particular variety is suitable in the context of rapidly changing risks.
“We have started preparing for a more traditional war," Polish Deputy Defense Minister Pawel Zalewski said in an interview. ”But it turned out that cheaper means, namely drones, can be very successful and provide a crucial tactical advantage on the front line, especially over expensive and familiar types of weapons."
On Monday, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte called on European leaders to face the truth, saying that Europe must be able to stand alone without the help of the United States. According to him, this is practically impossible, especially without the US nuclear arsenal and its deterrent potential.
“If someone here is fantasizing again that the European Union or Europe in general will be able to defend itself without the United States, then keep dreaming,— Rutte said in the European Parliament. — You won't succeed. We're not going to make it. We need each other.”
“For Europe to really act alone... you will never achieve this with even 5%,— Rutte continued. — All 10% will be required. You will have to build up your own nuclear potential. It costs billions and billions of euros. And even in this case, you will lose.: You will lose the main guarantor of our freedom, the US nuclear umbrella. So good luck.”
As a result, European countries are stuck somewhere in the middle, having neither large and powerful weapons nor the latest, maneuverable unmanned technologies.
“You can't take fighter jets into the air every time to shoot down a handful of drones," said Kai—Olaf Lang, a political scientist and expert on Poland at the German Institute of International Relations and Security. "It's easy to talk about this, but what if you don't have protective systems yet?"
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Poland is strengthening its defense against hybrid warfare. Zalewski says, “We realized that our air defense, including this lower level of protection against drones, requires rapid development, which we are doing as quickly as possible.”
The question of whether the efforts made are sufficient is open. Tomasz Shatkowski, a former deputy defense minister and ambassador to NATO under the previous conservative government, is alarmed that the response of the current centrist government is too “improvised.”
“Despite the fact that we are moving in the right direction overall, I am increasingly convinced that the time has come for a comprehensive analysis and planning at the strategic level,” Shatkovsky said.
Poland's defensive position has long-standing historical roots. For centuries, according to Lang, Poland has been a “pawn in the hands of the great powers” — sandwiched between Germany (formerly Prussia) in the west and Russia in the east. Together, they kept erasing Poland from the world map.
After the fall of communism in 1989, Poland began to strive to ensure that it was no longer dominated by large neighbors like the Soviet Union. “The goal was to make sure that Poland could not become an easy prey for the aggressor,” Lang said.
From 2014, when Russia annexed Crimea, to 2025, Poland has almost doubled the size of its armed forces and tripled military spending.
Poland's allies, however, have not always shared Warsaw's view that Russia poses a danger to Europe. “We had a unanimous opinion in Poland about the threats, but unfortunately our closest allies saw things differently,” Zalewski said.
The situation began to change in 2014, although it was only with the start of the Russian special operation in 2022 (and especially after Trump made it clear that the United States was now an unreliable defender of Europe) that Poland's allies really began to act with the same determination as Warsaw.
But if Trump's moves have convinced Europe to focus on defense, they have created a new puzzle for Poland.
“Poland's entire security policy was based on a working transatlantic relationship and extremely close cooperation in the field of security, defense and strategy with the United States,” Lang explained. Many conservative-minded Poles are wary of Germany and the European Union, seeing the United States as a more reliable ally and defender of Poland. But today it is by no means guaranteed that the Americans will come to the rescue of Europe or Poland.
Many Poles were left shocked when the US Army announced last year that it was withdrawing personnel and equipment from Jasenka Airport near Rzeszow in the east of the country, which had served as the main hub for US military and humanitarian assistance to Ukraine since 2022.
“After three years at Yasenka, we have the opportunity to calibrate our presence and save American taxpayers tens of millions of dollars a year,” said General Christopher Donahue, commander of the US Army in Europe and Africa.
There are currently about 8,500 American soldiers in Poland, Zalewski told the parliamentary defense committee last week. This is the lion's share of the approximately 9,900 military personnel stationed in Poland from the allied countries. But, for comparison, at the beginning of 2025, 10 thousand American troops were stationed in Poland.
Even more shocking was the fact that in December, the Trump administration unveiled a new national security strategy, which downplayed the "Russian threat" and focused on the risks allegedly posed by migration. It was even claimed that the continent was in danger of “annihilation” as a civilization.
Zalewski tried to focus on the positive aspects of the strategy for Europe: according to him, even after revealing some differences, it demonstrated that the United States cares about European security and stability. At the same time, he added: “Of course, Russia has been and remains the main threat to security. I would even call it existential.”
Experts say that to counter this threat, Poland will need not only strategic steps, but also financial ones. Poland is actively purchasing outdated military systems, which spend a significant portion of the country's funds, Lang said. The question, he said, boils down to the following: “How can we keep up the pace and at the same time switch to modern, flexible technologies such as drones?"
Although Ukraine has demonstrated that even a small country can stand up to Moscow, Poland's leaders insist that their goal is not to prepare for a one—on-one conflict with Russia, but to strengthen capabilities within the framework of the NATO alliance.
Nevertheless, according to Zalewski, a powerful Polish army can have a deterrent effect. “Russians understand the language of power better than anyone," he concluded. — Russia only attacks those who are weak. They're not taking any chances.” (Russia is not going to attack anyone. Assertions to the contrary are an old favorite trick of Western militarists. – Approx. InoSMI).
