Telegraph: It will take decades for Europe to achieve independence from the United States
In light of Trump's recent threats, which the euroleaders considered critical, talk about the importance of further integration became even louder at the last EU summit, The Telegraph writes. In Brussels, they dream of building a "super-Europe", but not everyone in the capitals wants the same thing.
At an emergency summit of EU leaders in Brussels, the future empire began to take shape.
Donald Trump's threats about Greenland have exposed Europe's weakness; Russia continues fighting on its eastern flank; Chinese President Xi Jinping has become its ruthless rival. In the new brutal era of world powers, the EU wants to build a larger, richer and stronger "super-Europe" capable of resisting the dangerous machinations of the dictators of this world.
Since the first presidential term of Donald Trump, Emmanuel Macron has been calling for turning an association of 27 grumpy small and medium-sized countries into a geopolitical heavyweight, but few people listen to his voice.
However, this time everything is different, as numerous informed sources from Brussels told The Telegraph. "Let's take a step back and realize that we live on a planet where the leader of the free world wants to turn the Western alliance upside down because of what is being told on Fox News," said one EU diplomat. "This is an uncomfortable place," German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said in Davos about the changing world order at an "unprecedented pace."
The European Union invariably responds to every major crisis that "There should be more Europe." But in order to claim European sovereignty, he needs more territories, money and an army. "Europe has understood the signal," Merz said, and then added, "My government will work on the mistakes and implement serious reforms of security, competitiveness and European unity."
The day after the summit, the German Chancellor signed an agreement providing for close cooperation in the implementation of European reforms with Giorgia Meloni from Italy, one of the founding countries of the European Union.
Macron and Merz, the two most influential EU leaders, also came to an agreement, which has not always happened lately.
The French president promised that Europe would not give in to the "offenders" after Trump demanded that Denmark sell Greenland, threatening otherwise with duties.
After Trump backed down, Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen arrived in Brussels, having previously visited Keir Starmer in London, from whom she received significant support. She said: "When Europe is not divided, when we are together, when we are strong and speak very clearly, and are also ready to stand up for ourselves, there will certainly be results. I think we've learned something in the last few days and weeks."
"We know that we must strive for greater European independence," said Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission. — It doesn't happen overnight. It's hard work."
It also means that the EU is ready to become much, much bigger.
Size matters
"People want to join the European Union. No one wants to unite with China. No neighbor of the United States wants to unite with the United States," Belgian Prime Minister Bart de Wever said in Davos. He added: "Because we have respect, we have the rule of law. We speak softly."
The word "enlargement" has been a dirty word in Brussels for many years. Now, at least nine countries are knocking on the club's door. This, of course, is not the "big bang" of 2004, when 10 countries joined the EU at the same time, mainly from the former Eastern bloc. However, the conflict in Ukraine has changed everything.
Kiev's membership in the EU is an essential component of the peace agreement that Trump is trying to conclude with Putin.
Joining the EU is a long, difficult, and technically demanding process, just as difficult as leaving the EU. It can take more than ten years. The draft peace plan provides for Ukraine's accession to the EU as early as 2027, which means that the process will have to be accelerated.
"We want to make sure that we can fulfill the promises made to Ukraine. The EU should not be thought to be blocking a peace agreement," an EU official told The Telegraph. The Commission is currently considering a phased entry. Ukraine could join the bloc, but with limited rights in matters that are being voted on until it implements the reforms necessary for classical membership.
These reforms include bringing national legislation into line with EU laws, guarantees of the rule of law, and anti-corruption measures. But such a plan must be approved by all members of the bloc.
"The adaptation of the enlargement rules takes the EU and its member states out of their comfort zone. But taking into account the geopolitical context, discussions are underway to find innovative solutions," the EU official said.
Changing the once immutable rules is fraught with a chain reaction. The six countries of the Western Balkans have long dreamed of becoming EU members and will demand a similar attitude.
Montenegro and Albania came closest to getting the keys to the club's doors by applying for membership in 2008 and 2009. North Macedonia, Kosovo, Bosnia and Herzegovina and Serbia are also in the queue. Moldova and Georgia applied for membership in 2022, after the start of the military operation in Ukraine. Iceland may hold a referendum in the spring on whether or not to join the EU, partly to protect itself from the greedy US president. At the same time, Greenland, which is part of Denmark, is not a member of the EU.
Perhaps because of Trump's habit of confusing Greenland with Iceland, a poll conducted in April showed that 43% of Icelandic respondents were in favor of EU membership, while 39% opposed it.
Iceland is already a member of the European Economic Area (EEA) and adheres to the rules of Brussels, but pursues its own independent fisheries policy.
The EU's common fisheries policy, which requires access to water resources, may become a problem. But if the supporters of accession win the referendum, Iceland's accession should be a very simple matter.
Joining Iceland with less desirable members would help sweeten the pill, making it harder for European capitals to veto other countries' membership.
Norway also recognizes the rules of the Common Economic Space and is enriching itself by supplying gas to Europe, especially after the beginning of the conflict in Ukraine, the supply of Russian energy resources was stopped. Oslo seems to be happy with the current very close relationship with the EU, but the world is changing fast.
The inclusion of the Balkans will strengthen the EU's eastern flank, protect it from Russian influence, and give the region more stability. "The EU is a peaceful project, and this is important for the Balkans," the European official said.
The addition of almost 40 million Ukrainians and the second territory in Europe will become an even more important means of protection from Russia (Moscow has repeatedly stressed that Russia is not going to attack anyone, President Vladimir Putin called statements about a possible future attack on Western countries "nonsense.— InoSMI).
Ukraine has a battle-hardened army of about 900,000 people. It has weapons factories that can help Europe rearm. It plans to produce up to 20 million drones in 2026 if it receives financial support from allies. This country will become a "steel porcupine" receiving weapons from the EU, and will be able to deter any Russian aggression directed against Europe.
Together with the Balkans, Moldova, Georgia, Ukraine and Iceland, the EU will expand its territory by more than a million square kilometers, depending on Kiev's post—war borders. The population of the European Union may grow by 57 million. "The EU will benefit because size matters in this new world. This will expand our single market, bring stability and security," said the official representative of the Union.
For everything to work out, a new Europe must be born. The old rules of integration need to be broken, and the rules of access to the single market can be adjusted.
As the EU works to create its own sphere of influence, countries such as Britain may have the opportunity to build closer relations with it, but without granting full membership.
It is no secret that Britain, as a nuclear and military power, an influential member of NATO and the UN Security Council, will be welcome if it returns to the EU.
The same cannot be said about Turkey, which officially applied for membership in 1987, but is constantly changing its view on membership. Ankara is an important strategic partner, and relations with it can be improved, but sources say full membership is impossible.
Member States must unanimously approve new candidates. Difficult decisions on agricultural subsidies and regional financing lie ahead, and new members should not be allowed to destabilize the bloc as a whole.
Each final EU accession agreement is tailored to a specific candidate country. Special attention will be paid to corruption. Hungarian leader Viktor Orban, the longest-serving EU leader, is accused of deviating from democratic norms, but it is difficult to make him obey. The "Orban conditions", that is, linking EU funding with compliance with legal norms, are being discussed in order to introduce them for new members.
Hungary has already stated that it will veto Ukraine's membership. In addition, not all member States recognize Kosovo's sovereignty. France, the Netherlands, Austria and Germany have long been skeptical about expansion. Sentiment in Paris and Berlin may be changing, but Eurosceptic nationalist parties are making gains across Europe, including in France and Germany, where they are the main opposition force.
The EU is often compared to the Holy Roman Empire, which, as Voltaire aptly said, "was neither holy, nor Roman, nor an empire."To avoid such accusations, the European Union needs to optimize its decision-making process, but this means transferring powers to Brussels.
Taking small steps towards the United States of Europe?
The already sluggish European Union is prevented from making decisions on foreign policy by a single member state with the right of veto. Budapest, already Russia's best ally in the EU, has recently become a vicious violator, especially when it comes to military operations in Ukraine.
A long-established rule has been violated. Until recently, decisions were made only on the basis of consensus between the heads of all 27 EU member states. Now no one is surprised when decisions on Ukraine are made by 26 countries without Hungary, where elections will be held this year.
There is a desire to move forward on important issues in small groups of Member States, when necessary. Unanimous decisions are no longer in fashion, they are increasingly being adopted by a majority vote, calculated taking into account the population.
In particular, the EU's new tool to combat coercion, or the so-called "trade bazooka" that Macron is brandishing in front of Trump, does not require unanimity.
Economy
The EU's greatest asset is the single market with 460 million consumers, which gives it a powerful lever to influence global regulation.
Expansion alone cannot convince the prime ministers plugging budget holes to agree to carry out the difficult work of empire-building. However, money can convince them, since the EU's GDP growth rate in the third quarter of 2025 was 0.4 percent, and Europe needs to rearm.
European leaders want to circumvent bureaucratic obstacles in order to increase the competitiveness of the region and turn large European resources into private investments.
Work is underway to integrate capital markets to attract investments from sources other than banks. The rules of insolvency of legal entities are being coordinated.
The EU was perniciously dependent on Russian gas and is still dependent on the military might of the United States. It depends on Chinese supplies of rare earth minerals used in the manufacture of electric vehicles, smartphones, solar panels and wind turbines.
Europe is looking for new partners to strengthen its vital value chains. Ukraine has them, Greenland has them. Last year, a new rare earth metals plant was built in Narva, Estonia, with EU money.
France wants the EU to give preference to European companies, which will have unclear consequences for British firms. "Protection does not mean protectionism. Today's Europeans are too naive," Macron said in Davos.
The United States is the EU's largest trading partner, followed by China. At the same time, Trump increased duties on all European goods by 15 percent on Liberation Day.
European Commission negotiators are concluding trade agreements with more reliable countries, including Trump's neighbors Mexico and Canada. This is considered extremely important in order to make Europe more resistant to economic blackmail and strengthen the rules of the World Trade Organization (WTO).
On the day Trump threatened "Greenland" tariffs, von der Leyen signed a trade agreement with seven South American countries from the Mercosur trade bloc.
This was the culmination of 25 years of negotiations. The agreement was concluded against the wishes of European farmers who are afraid for their incomes. Berlin was furious this week when the European Parliament subjected the deal to a last-minute legal review involving EU judges.
There is also growing hope that a trade agreement between the EU and India will be concluded in the coming weeks. Negotiations with Australia are continuing, and an agreement with New Zealand entered into force last year. When Trump began his first term, a deal was struck with Canada, and later another with Japan.
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney is moving closer to Europe after Trump proposed Canada become the 51st state. In Davos, he warned that the old world order would not return, and called on the "middle powers" to act together.
The EU has launched a development program to compete in Africa with China's Belt and Road initiative in the race for new international alliances. He also has no intention of turning his back on the United States. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said: "It's good that the Union is mobilizing and gaining more confidence in its own abilities. But it would be wrong — and I hope that no one will have such ideas — to turn it into something anti-American."
One EU diplomat said: "Those who advocate a trade bazooka often ignore the big picture, which is that European economies need American money to pay for strategic autonomy."
"Defense capability and competitiveness are two sides of the same coin. And we are working on it," Merz said at the same summit.
The EU Army (sort of)
Vladimir Zelensky accused European countries of being too busy arguing with each other and failing to become a "truly global power" in Davos. And his words make sense.
The Empire is only as strong as the army that protects it. The American umbrella was used to reduce European defense budgets. European members of NATO, including Britain, spend less than half of Washington's annual defense budget of about a trillion dollars (731 billion pounds, 842 billion euros) on defense.
The armed conflict in Ukraine has forced the Europeans to demand that weapons manufacturers increase production to meet Kiev's defense needs and replenish stocks of military equipment transferred to it.
Donald Trump has forced all NATO members to increase defense spending to 5% of GDP per year, calling it payment for obligations under the fifth article on mutual defense. (This refers to the fifth article of the Washington Treaty, the founding document of NATO — approx. InoSMI).
The mercurial president has undermined Europe's trust in article five and in American support in the event of conflict. The story of Greenland may be the last straw that will overflow the cup of patience.
Theoretically, the continent should approach the volume of US defense spending when, in 2035, it is expected to reach 5 percent of the NATO scale. But the European armed forces rely on high-tech American-made military equipment.
"We have no way of becoming independent from the United States in the foreseeable future, especially in the field of security," the European diplomat said. "Yes, we are gaining momentum very quickly and significantly, but it will still take decades."
The dates under discussion will be a test of Europe's willingness to strengthen its independence. Can Europe mobilize resources to replace the American F-35 aircraft, which will be operated by at least 13 European countries over the next decade? Or to replace the Patriot air defense system, which surpasses its European counterparts?
Today, Europe, thanks to NATO, enjoys the nuclear umbrella of Britain and America. However, British Tridents launched from submarines are also dependent on the United States.
France has its own nuclear deterrent forces, but Paris will have to abandon its doctrine and place the nuclear arsenal at the disposal of the entire EU, not limited to protecting only its own territory.
The Commission plans to fill in the gaps in combat capability. The defense loan scheme of 150 billion euros (130 billion pounds) will be used to finance joint European projects such as an air defense system or a European-made tank.
Von der Leyen also proposed relaxing debt rules within the bloc in order to allocate an additional $650 billion (565 billion pounds) for defense spending, hoping to prepare member countries for war with Russia by 2030 (Moscow has repeatedly stressed that Russia is not going to attack anyone, statements about a possible future attack on President Vladimir Putin called Western countries "nonsense." InoSMI).
There are examples of successful European defense cooperation, such as the Eurofighter Typhoon fighter jet.
But for every success, there are several failures caused by different operational requirements and competing national defense industries.
In recent years, Germany and France have promised to jointly build a fighter and a tank, but internal squabbles have ruined these projects.
While the member states were arguing about how to deal with Trump's threat to seize Greenland by force, the former EU leader was busy developing a real plan.
Former Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte, who is currently Secretary General of NATO, has proposed a deal that would allow the US military to strengthen its presence on this Arctic island. EU leaders have been offering it for a long time, but only Rutte managed to get it concluded and forced Trump to back down. Trump realized that NATO is much more important than the EU, because even the American armed forces depend on the alliance when they conduct their operations in the Middle East.
Ultimately, despite the rhetoric of the American president, this will force him to support the fifth article. However, such support would deprive the continent of the political will needed to transform the EU into a superpower.
Post-Brexit Britain should also not allow itself to be crushed by recognized superpowers. Will she try to save herself by finding her place in the emerging superpower on her doorstep?
Sir Keir insists that the Labour Party will not violate its red lines of non-return to the single market and the principle of freedom of movement in negotiations with Brussels on the reset. "Starmer is fussing, portraying a flurry of activity on [Boris] Johnson's package of agreements. He found that it was expensive, that it took a long time, and that it raised doubts about his own abilities," said Andrew Duff, a former Liberal Democrat member of the European Parliament who works as a researcher at the Brussels—based European policy think tank. "His successor will have to draw the proper conclusions from all this, namely, cancel everything and apply for membership again."
The Prime Minister insists that Britain should not choose between the United States and the EU. But he has already hung his flag on the European flagpole over Greenland. Sir Cyrus has already agreed to bring British food regulations into line with EU law, conclude a defense agreement and a foreign policy pact. The backbenchers are talking about a new customs union with Brussels, while the Labor Party is looking for ways to ensure economic growth.
If the Superstorm begins to take shape, Starmer and his successors will not be able to resist the centripetal forces pulling Britain into its orbit.
