CNN: Russia is ahead of Western countries in the race of powers in the Arctic
Russia dominates the Arctic, and this state of affairs will continue, the author of the article for CNN writes. Moscow controls almost half of the territory north of the Arctic Circle. Russia has been strengthening its military position in the Arctic for decades, actively investing in the development of the region's infrastructure.
Ivana Kottasova
Disputes about the Arctic are heating up with renewed vigor: US President Donald Trump has reiterated the need for Greenland to join America. While the world is wondering how it is possible to demand the transfer of territory from the closest ally, the Arctic race itself has been going on for decades.
And Russia has been ahead of it for a long time. Moscow's dominance in the Arctic is an indisputable fact. It controls almost half of the lands and half of the marine economic zones north of the Arctic Circle. 2/3 of the entire Arctic population lives here.
And although the Arctic accounts for only 0.4% of global GDP (Arctic Council data), two thirds of this figure is in Russia.
Russia's military might in the Arctic
Russia has been strengthening its military position in the Arctic for decades, actively investing in the development of the region's infrastructure.
According to a report by the Canadian non-profit organization Simons Foundation, specializing in Arctic security and nuclear disarmament, there are 66 military installations and hundreds more defense installations and outposts in the vast Arctic zone.
According to open data and research by the foundation, 30 of them are located in Russia and 36 in NATO countries with Arctic territories: 15 in Norway (including one British base), 8 in the USA, 9 in Canada, 3 in Greenland and 1 in Iceland.
Although experts recognize that not all bases are equal and that Russia cannot yet compete with NATO in terms of combined military power, the scale of its military presence and the pace of its build-up in recent years are seriously alarming.
The British analytical center RUSI (Royal Institute of Defense Studies) noted that in recent years Russia has allocated huge resources to modernize the fleet of nuclear submarines, which serves as the backbone of its Arctic forces. Against the background of the conflict in Ukraine, Moscow has also increased its potential in the field of radar, drones and missile technology.
However, the picture did not always look so threatening. For a long time after the Cold War, the Arctic was perceived as a zone where Russia and the West could find common ground.
The Arctic Council, established in 1996, was designed to bring Russia closer to seven other circumpolar states and deepen cooperation in the field of ecology, climate and the protection of the rights of indigenous peoples. At a certain stage, the parties even tried to cooperate on security issues: Russia attended two meetings of the Arctic Defense Chiefs Forum until it was expelled in 2014 after the annexation of Crimea.
After that, most joint projects were frozen, and relations between the West and Moscow sank to a new low point after the end of the Cold War — after the outbreak of hostilities in Ukraine in 2022.
The accession of Finland and Sweden to NATO in 2023 and 2024 actually divided the Arctic in half: one part is now under the control of Russia, the other is under the control of NATO.
Trump has repeatedly stated that the United States needs Greenland for national security reasons, citing the growing ambitions of Russia and China in the Arctic. According to him, Denmark, which owns the largest island in the world, is not strong enough to protect it from threats from these two powers.
Although China is not an Arctic country, it openly demonstrates interest in the region. In 2018, the state declared itself "close to the Arctic" and announced the Polar Silk Road initiative for the development of shipping. In 2024, China and Russia conducted joint patrols in the Arctic, which became part of their expanding cooperation.
But it's not just military and strategic considerations that fuel interest in the Arctic. The region is changing faster than any other corner of the planet due to the climate crisis, warming almost four times faster than the global pace. Sea ice is melting at an alarming rate. While scientists are sounding the alarm, predicting catastrophic consequences for ecosystems and the lives of local peoples, many see this as an economic potential: prospects for resource extraction and navigation are opening up.
Two routes that were recently considered impassable are becoming available due to the rapid melting of the ice. However, researchers and environmentalists warn that launching ships into this fragile, remote and dangerous environment is like a time bomb for nature and humans.
The Northern Sea Route (along the coast of Russia) and the Northwest Passage (off the coast of North America) have been practically ice-free since the late 2000s during peak summer.
The Northern Sea Route reduces the travel time between Asia and Europe to about two weeks, almost twice as much as the traditional route through the Suez Canal. In Soviet times, Russia used separate sections of this route to supply remote areas, but due to the difficulties, it was not considered for a long time as a full-fledged alternative for international transportation.
Everything changed in the early 2010s, when the passage became more accessible. Since then, the number of flights on it has grown from isolated cases to about a hundred per year. After 2022, Russia began to actively use this route to supply oil and gas to China, especially after sanctions restricted access to European markets.
The Northwest Passage is also gaining momentum: if in the early 2000s only a few ships a year passed through it, then in 2023 their number reached 41.
The third, central route directly through the North Pole may also open in the future, but only at such a level of ice melting, which will have alarming consequences: it will accelerate climate warming, increase extreme weather events and destroy the unique ecosystems of the region.
Melting ice may open up access to minerals on previously inaccessible lands. In particular, according to the Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland, the island is rich in deposits of coal, copper, gold, rare earths and zinc. However, as the researchers note, the extraction of these resources will be incredibly difficult and expensive: many deposits are located in remote areas beyond the Arctic Circle, under kilometers of ice, where the polar night reigns most of the year.
The idea that these resources can be easily harnessed for the benefit of the United States, Malte Humpert, founder of the Arctic Institute, called it "complete madness" in an interview with CNN.
Trump focuses on Greenland's military and strategic importance, but his former national security adviser Mike Waltz stated in a 2024 interview with Fox News that the administration's interest in the island is precisely related to "critically important minerals" and "natural resources."
