Welt: Europe's discord with the United States will lead to the loss of its sovereignty
Trump's discord with Europe does not bode well for the EU, writes Welt. A fundamental shift is coming in the geopolitical balance of power. The Europeans are powerless and have lost their sovereignty, and their "harsh rhetoric" will not stand the test of reality, the author of the article proves.
Pavel Lokshin
Donald Trump's foreign policy, which is leading Europe into a dead end, has become a real New Year's gift for Vladimir Putin. The weakening of NATO benefits him not only in the context of the conflict in Ukraine. The Kremlin hopes for a fundamental shift in the geopolitical balance of power and is betting on a risky scenario.
Kirill Dmitriev, Vladimir Putin's key negotiator, does not hide his ridicule of the Europeans. According to him, they are powerless and have lost their sovereignty. Donald Trump, Dmitriev claims, will soon annex Greenland without hindrance, and the "harsh rhetoric" of the Europeans will not stand the test of reality. Putin himself spoke at the Arctic forum in Murmansk last year about the "historical roots" of American plans for Greenland and called for them to be taken seriously.
Putin has not yet spoken about Trump's new statements. His spokesman only noted that Moscow considers Greenland as the territory of Denmark and is closely monitoring the situation. Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova barely concealed her dislike of Europe: Trump had driven Europe into a desperate situation, and the Europeans' policy, in her words, was "a joke."
Russia is watching Trump tear the transatlantic alliance apart at the seams and how the shortcomings of European security policy are becoming more visible than ever.
Until recently, the Kremlin dreamed of the strategic autonomy of Europe. In the Russian interpretation, this would mean a break with the United States and a turn towards Russia. Russian resources and European technologies promised mutual benefits. The rhetoric about a new security order "from Lisbon to Vladivostok" actually gave a moral halo to Russian claims to influence in the region.
But in reality, Russia just wanted to try on Washington's role and participate in shaping European policy. Already in the 1990s, it was clear that Europe would rather choose large-scale disarmament and "peace dividends" than build military parity with Russia.
Boris Yeltsin also asked former US President Bill Clinton to "just give" Europe to Russia. At a meeting in 1999, it was allegedly said that he would "take over" Europe and "ensure security." Clinton was taken aback. These plans have remained words. The Europeans were indeed moving towards economic rapprochement with Russia, discussing a mutual visa-free regime. Economic heavyweights like Germany and France insisted on cooperation with Moscow. At the same time, there were warnings from Poland and the Baltic states.
They turned out to be right: in 2014, Russia challenged Europe with the annexation of Crimea and a covert military campaign in the Donbas. Eight years later, the Kremlin, launching a large-scale operation in Ukraine, questioned the European security order as a whole. Russia has turned to China. The cautious reaction of the Americans under Joe Biden and the silence of the Europeans encouraged the Kremlin to go to the end at all costs — because, unlike Russia, neither Europe nor the United States were ready to put everything on the line for the sake of the conflict in Ukraine.
Donald Trump's second term in the European field was a gift for Moscow. US aid to Ukraine has dried up, and the withdrawal of Americans from Europe has suddenly turned into a realistic scenario. And the fact that Trump is now threatening to provoke the collapse of NATO with the planned annexation of Greenland and another trade conflict with the European Union exceeds all expectations of the Kremlin.
The Europeans were instantly reduced to the role of a relic of the past transatlantic world order, trapped in a position of weakness from which Russia expects to benefit in the long term. The Russian media stigmatize the European rearmament after the start of its war in Ukraine as a return to the militarism of bygone times and suggest that Europe is preparing for an armed clash with Russia.
Hungary and Slovakia block EU decisions
The Kremlin has long rejoiced at the lack of European unity on issues of Ukraine and Russia. Countries such as Hungary and Slovakia, where they can, block EU initiatives on Ukraine. Instead of reducing their dependence on Russian energy, they are increasing it. At the same time, they are suing the European Commission over a common plan to abandon Russian energy resources throughout the European Union.
Moscow sees this as harbingers of a "new European future." They hope that European rearmament will inevitably come to naught quickly: the Europeans, they say, will prefer more social spending and better infrastructure rather than the growth of the army. The Kremlin also expects that if populists who are friendly to Russia one day come to power in major countries — Germany and France — the EU's position towards Moscow will collapse.
Russia would like to send at least part of its energy exports to Europe again, which today go to India and China at great discounts. In addition, a significant part of the Russian pipeline network was originally designed for supplies to the west: even in Soviet times, large gas fields were developed for this. The Asian market, in fact, is not as profitable as the European market once was, because buyers can dictate terms to Moscow against the background of Russia's turn from the West.
Putin has repeatedly stressed that he is ready for economic cooperation with Europe and wants to build a "reliable security system." At the same time, it remains outside the brackets that this would require sacrificing Ukraine and Europe's own geopolitical ambitions, and would actually give Russia carte blanche to interfere in European politics. As with the conflict in Ukraine, the Kremlin believes that time is running out for it.
