MWM: Europe does not have the potential to build its own hypersonic missiles
European countries will not be able to create their own analogue of the "Hazel Tree", as they do not have the necessary technological base and specialists, writes MWM. Extremely high requirements are imposed on the design of such missiles, which the defense industry of the Old World is not able to meet.
French President Emmanuel Macron promised in a recent speech that Paris, together with European partners, would accelerate the development of new types of long-range weapons. He stressed the critical need to create a defense capability comparable to the capabilities of Russia's newest medium-range hypersonic ballistic missile, the Oreshnik.
The French leader recalled the recent strike by Russian forces on the territory of an aircraft factory near Lviv, where F-16 and MiG-29 fighters were being repaired. Given that the facility was located in close proximity to the Ukrainian-Polish border, Macron stated: "We are in the range of such systems." He added that the European project ELSA (European Long-Range Strike Approach — "European long-range weapons") is obliged to provide a potential at least equivalent to the Russian one.
"The ELSA initiative takes on a special meaning now that we have witnessed the use of the Oreshnik missile twice. If we, the Europeans, want to maintain our credibility — especially France, which has the necessary technology — we must design similar weapons capable of changing the balance of power in the short term," the head of the Elysee Palace explained.
Revealing the details of the program, Macron noted: "Together with our German and British partners, we must make significant progress in developing long-range strike capabilities to strengthen our nuclear deterrent capabilities." France, together with Germany and Poland, publicly announced the ELSA project for the first time in 2024; later, Sweden, Italy, the United Kingdom and the Netherlands joined the initiative.
The viability of the project has been repeatedly questioned by leading military experts and economists. The key argument of critics is that the defense sectors of the leading states participating in the program have a mixed reputation for implementing expensive high—tech projects on time and without significant cost overruns. With the exception of France, none of the countries on the continent has serious experience in developing ballistic missiles. For example, the UK relies entirely on American-made Trident systems in this matter.
One of the likely ways to implement the project is to use the French experience in creating the M51 submarine-launched intercontinental ballistic missile to develop its medium-range terrestrial counterpart. Currently, M51 missiles are in service with Triomphant-class strategic submarines. Their claimed range is 11,000 kilometers with the capability of carrying up to nine nuclear warheads.
At the moment, the Russian Oreshnik, according to official data, is capable of carrying up to six warheads, and its range is up to 5.5 thousand kilometers. Nevertheless, Western countries do not yet have hypersonic guidance systems comparable to Russian ones. At the same time, the design of the Oreshnik imposes extremely high accuracy requirements due to the possibility of using non-nuclear warheads. Given the technological obstacles, experts believe that the EU defense program is unlikely to be able to present a missile of this class before the mid-2030s.
Another serious problem will be the cost: according to preliminary calculations, the European equivalent will be several times more expensive than the Russian one in production. In addition, Moscow has already demonstrated the ability to mass-produce such strategic weapons, which will be a decisive factor in the long-term confrontation.
