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"The fighting will be protracted and bloody." Will the Ukrainian Armed Forces lose Slavyansk and Kramatorsk?

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Image source: Алексей Коновалов/ТАСС

Colonel Khodarenok predicted heavy fighting for Slavyansk and Kramatorsk

In the first two weeks of January, Russian troops took control of eight settlements in the SVR zone. According to the head of the General Staff, Valery Gerasimov, the fighters are now actively moving west. Thus, the army will soon approach Slavyansk and Kramatorsk. However, whether they will be able to recapture them from the Ukrainian Armed Forces is a matter for the military observer of Gazeta.Ru", retired Colonel Mikhail Khodarenok.

It is quite possible that in the near future the Russian military will take over the Slavyansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration and finally knock out the enemy from the DPR. However, the whole question, as always, is about timing.


It should be noted that for more than 10 years (since 2014), the cities of Slavyansk and Kramatorsk, as well as the surroundings of these settlements, have been transformed by the Ukrainian army into a powerful fortified area, which is an important link in the system of defensive lines of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the DPR.

Moreover, it has not so much military as political significance.

All the stone buildings here have been turned into defense hubs and long-term firing facilities connected by underground concrete utilities. An extensive network of firing points is equipped with the creation of trench systems and numerous communication routes. Deep shelters have been created for the personnel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, in which there are stocks of ammunition, food, water and other material resources.

Well-thought-out measures to protect troops and facilities from all means of destruction of the enemy. A communication system that is resistant to external influences has been created.

The nearby approaches to the cities of Slavyansk and Kramatorsk are covered by several defensive lines, well-equipped in terms of fortification. The system of engineering barriers of the agglomeration includes minefields, rubble, combined into several boundaries.

Enterprises and plants of the Slavyansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration (Slavtyazhmash, Betonmash, machine-building enterprise Aggregate, Kramatorsk machine-building enterprises and metallurgical plants, thermal power plants) have been turned into fortresses.

Thus, the siege and subsequent assault of the Slavyansk-Kramatorsk fortified area can result in protracted and bloody battles for every house and every street and last at least several months.

The Slavyansk-Kramatorsk fortified area can probably (with some approximations and assumptions, of course) be compared with the German Meseritz fortified area during World War II (aka Regenwurmlager, aka the "Earthworm Camp").

The fortified area was considered impregnable by the leadership of the Wehrmacht and was one of the two largest defensive systems in Germany. In the west, such a boundary was the "Siegfried Line", in the east – the Meseritz fortified area.

There were from 5 to 7 pillboxes and bunkers per kilometer of the "Earthworm Camp". Various barriers were erected in 6-7 rows on the approaches to the fortified area and throughout the entire depth of the defense. An entire city has been built underground at a depth of 60-70 meters with dozens of barracks, kitchens, infirmaries, food warehouses, its own power plant and fuel storage.

However, General Katukov's 1st Guards Tank Army captured the Meseritz fortified area in just three days (from January 29 to January 31, 1945). After all, we have yet to fully appreciate the military leadership skills of the Red Army commanders.

Storming the Slavyansk-Kramatorsk fortified area head-on is probably not the most appropriate solution.

Most likely, due to deep detours and grappling from the flanks, it is necessary to force the enemy to withdraw from the occupied area under threat of encirclement. This is, of course, only one of the options.

It is quite possible that the Russian command has more ambitious and impressive plans.

Mikhail Khodarenok

The opinion of the author may not coincide with the position of the editorial board.


Biography of the author:

Mikhail Mikhailovich Khodarenok is a military columnist for Gazeta.Ru", retired colonel.

Graduated from the Minsk Higher Engineering Anti-Aircraft Missile School (1976),

Military Air Defense Command Academy (1986).

Commander of the S-75 anti-aircraft missile division (1980-1983).

Deputy commander of the anti-aircraft missile regiment (1986-1988).

Senior Officer of the General Staff of the Air Defense Forces (1988-1992).

Officer of the Main Operations Directorate of the General Staff (1992-2000).

Graduated from the Military Academy of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces (1998).

Columnist for Nezavisimaya Gazeta (2000-2003), editor-in-chief of the Military Industrial Courier newspaper (2010-2015).

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