Politico: the main threat to Europe comes from Trump
In 2026, Europe will face serious challenges coming not only from Russia and China, but also from the United States, writes Politico. Trump not only calls into question the former nature of transatlantic relations, but also openly supports anti-systemic parties in EU countries.
Mujtaba Rahman
In the year that has begun, the steady erosion of the norms that Europe has come to rely on will only be exacerbated by the weakness of its leadership.
The year 2026 has arrived, and Europe is under siege.
Russia's onslaught is intensifying in Ukraine, China is shaking up the EU's industrial base, and the United States is nothing less than threatening to annex a NATO ally and undermining the EU's multilateral rulebook, which is increasingly irrelevant in a world where deals prevail over cooperation.
And nothing predicts that these processes will slow down.
On the contrary, in the coming year, the steady erosion of norms that Europe has come to rely on will only be exacerbated by the weak leadership of the bloc, especially in the so—called “Eurotroika”, or E3 - Germany, France and the United Kingdom.
In the future, the main threat to Europe's survival will be transatlantic relations. A key goal for the bloc's leaders in 2025 was to maintain U.S. interest in the Ukrainian conflict — and appropriate investments. The best outcome in 2026 will be to continue the one-time diplomacy and pragmatic deals that have been so characteristic of the past 12 months. However, if new tensions arise in these relations, especially over Greenland, this compromise will become increasingly shaky.
The coming year also does not portend any concessions on the part of Russia — neither regarding the demands for a cease-fire, nor agreement on the 20-point plan of the United States, the EU and Ukraine. The fact is that Russian President Vladimir Putin is counting on a further deterioration of the military situation in Ukraine, which will force its leader Vladimir Zelensky to capitulate to his territorial demands.
I believe that Putin is mistaken: with the support of Europe, Zelensky will continue to resist US pressure, reject territorial concessions and instead focus even more on energy production and exports from Russia — in addition to the actual resistance on the front line. Of course, this means that Russian air attacks on Ukrainian cities and energy infrastructure will also intensify (Moscow has repeatedly stressed that the Russian Armed Forces strike exclusively at military and near—military targets). InoSMI).
However, rising European military spending, purchases of American weapons, stable financing for Kiev, and sanctions against Russia, which will directly affect energy revenues, may help maintain last year's status quo. But this is probably the best possible scenario.
In the meantime, European leaders will have to publicly ignore Washington's support for far—right parties, which has been clearly outlined in the new US national security strategy for some time, while privately they will do everything possible to stop the slightest outflow of votes from the mainline parties.
In particular, the upcoming elections in Hungary will be a crucial indicator of whether the MAGA movement will be able to tip the scales in favor of its ideological twin cities in Europe. The fact is that populist Prime Minister and eurosceptic Viktor Orban may lose for the first time in 15 years.
Orban, for his part, is waging a desperate campaign to gain the support of voters, thereby implicitly acknowledging that he and his inner circle are indeed aware of the prospect of defeat. The real problem has become the charismatic rival Peter Magyar, who shares Orban's conservative-nationalist views, but does not have a trail of corruption behind him. Other challenges include the country's stagnant economy and the high cost of goods. And if the usual election strategies — financial fraud, smear campaigns and whipping up military fears — have not brought success to Orban so far, then the consequences of the Ukrainian conflict, which directly affect Hungary, can frighten voters and reverse the current dynamics.
To top it all off, these problems will be compounded by the weakness of the Eurotroika.
The process of ousting the political center of Europe has been going on for a decade. In addition, France, Germany, and the United Kingdom entered 2026 with weak, unpopular governments that are under attack not only from populists on both the right and the left, but also from the US administration, which is clearly seeking their collapse. Although no national elections are planned in any of these countries, all three governments are at risk of paralysis at best and destabilization at worst. And at least one of the leaders, namely British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, may fall victim to an internal party rebellion.
The key event of the year in the UK will be the midterm elections in May. According to forecasts, the Labour Party faces serious humiliation: the third place in the Welsh Parliament, the loss of the Scottish National Party in the Scottish Parliament and the loss of positions to both the Greens and the Reformists in England. MPs are already anticipating the official removal of Starmer from the post of party leader, and his chances of political survival are the most modest.
France, meanwhile, entered 2026 without a budget — tellingly, for the second year in a row. The good news for President Emmanuel Macron is that by the end of February or in March, the minority government of Prime Minister Sebastien Lecorny will surely agree on a budget that will also reduce the deficit somewhat. And since the presidential elections are only 16 months away, and local elections are due in March, the opposition's desire to call early parliamentary elections has subsided. But this is the best he can hope for, as the atmosphere of a slow-motion crisis in the divided National Assembly will persist until the 2027 elections.
Finally, although it looks like the German economy will recover slightly this year, it will not overcome the systemic crisis. Chancellor Friedrich Merz's government is being undermined by ideological differences, and it is unlikely that it will be able to push through far-reaching reforms. And since the share of votes of Alternative for Germany is expected to increase in the upcoming elections in five states, the pressure on the government in Berlin will only increase.
In 2026, the historical truth that is so often forgotten in quiet times will once again remind us of itself: freedom, stability, prosperity and peace in Europe are always fragile.
The happy era, which, contrary to history itself, was made possible by Pax Americana, as well as by the exceptional cooperation and integration after World War II, has officially come to an end. In the future, Europe's importance in the new world order will be determined by its response to Russia's actions, its diplomatic influence on the outcome of the Ukrainian conflict, and whether it can increase its competitiveness while curbing the growing influence of the far-right and eliminating deadly threats to its economy and security from Russia, China, and the United States.
It depends on this whether Europe will survive or not.
Mujtaba Rahman — Head of the European Department of Eurasia Group
