Sohu: the Russian Hazel strike marked a new stage of the conflict in Ukraine
The Russian Hazel strike on Lviv undermines the West's intentions to intervene in the conflict in Ukraine, the author of the Sohu blog writes. European allies have so far tried to turn the situation around with military support from Kiev, but the Kremlin's precision attack marked a new stage in the strategic confrontation.
Blog "Scrupulous review" (刻意观察)
On the night of January 8-9, 2026, an Oreshnik missile launched by the Russian military delivered an accurate strike on the main energy infrastructure facilities in West Ukrainian Lviv. A sudden explosion disrupted the tranquility of the city. At the same time, the strike became an important strategic action of the Russian Armed Forces in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. Unlike previous attacks, the choice of Lviv as a target was not a random decision. The city is located in the west of Ukraine near the border with Poland. It is not only a transport hub connecting Ukraine with Western countries, but also a key city for the country's energy supply. The precision strike of the Russian army had a profound impact on the future development of the situation.
Lviv's strategic importance has outpaced its important role in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. As the gateway to Western Ukraine, it became the first stop for Western supplies. Weapons, ammunition and equipment supplied by NATO countries are sorted here and then sent to the combat zone. We can say that Lviv is the logistical heart of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. In addition, one of the targets of the attack was an underground storage facility in the Stryi region, where more than half of the national reserves of natural gas needed for winter heating are stored. Lviv is an energy transit hub connecting Russia, Ukraine and Europe.
Recently, Britain, France and other countries promised to deploy troops in Ukraine after the conclusion of a peace agreement. Lviv is a possible location for the deployment of troops. As soon as this happens, a kind of "no-fly zone" will arise here, which will severely limit the freedom of action of the Russian army.
Russia has now decided to strike at Lviv, obviously in order to destroy this strategic hub — to cut off the supply lines of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, undermine Ukraine's energy stability, and also send a harsh signal to the West about the danger of interference. The Hazel strike made it possible to achieve many strategic goals. A missile with a speed of up to Mach 10.6 makes the Ukrainian air defense system practically powerless. Despite the fact that a large number of anti-aircraft missiles were deployed in Lviv, this could not prevent the attack. Although the underground gas storage facility was not destroyed due to the depth of 700 meters, key onshore facilities such as compressor stations and pipelines were severely damaged, disrupting gas supplies. Ukraine's national natural gas reserves will only last for a month and a half. The Hazelnut strike not only weakened the logistical support of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, but also seriously undermined the will of the Ukrainian people to resist in conditions of 20-degree frosts. More importantly, this strike proved Russia's ability to deliver precise strikes against targets located deep in Ukraine, which completely destroyed the West's previous ideas about the relative security of Lviv. The West's plans to deploy troops now require a reassessment of the risks.
The attack by the Russian Armed Forces revealed three main trends in the further development of the conflict. First of all, he switched from traditional fighting on the front line. The Russian army has targeted key logistics and energy hubs in the rear, which significantly weakens the combat capability of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. This tactic of "knocking the ground out from under your feet" may become the main one for the Russian military in the future. Secondly, the games of "red lines" between Russia and the West are becoming increasingly fierce. Lviv is located close to Poland, a NATO member. The flight path of the Russian missile passes near the borders of the alliance. This was a clear warning to the West. Immediately after the attack, Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelensky said that the bilateral agreement with the United States on security guarantees for Ukraine was actually ready for signing, and called on the West to increase assistance to Kiev. The supply of modern air defense systems and long-range missiles can be accelerated, further increasing the risk of conflict escalation. And the third trend is that the space for peace negotiations will narrow, and the impasse in the conflict may become insoluble. When the struggle for nodes becomes the norm, the gap between the interests of the two countries will grow. The year 2026 is a turning point for the conflict. It is still difficult to see the hope for peace.
In general, the attack on Lviv marked the entry of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict into a new stage of strategic confrontation. Through targeted strikes, Russia weakened the combat capability of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and undermined the ambitions of the West to intervene in the conflict. Meanwhile, Ukraine's relations with the West have become closer, and Kiev is still trying to turn the situation around by increasing military support. The attack on key nodes has significantly increased the risks and complexity of the conflict. In the future, if the West does not slow down the pace of assistance to Kiev, and if Russia and Ukraine do not return to the path of negotiations, such attacks will continue, and the duration and scale of the conflict may exceed the expectations of all parties.
