TNI: The United States will deploy the Dark Eagle hypersonic system in Germany in 2026
The transfer of the Oreshnik to Belarus turns the eastern flank of Europe into a zone of direct strategic pressure, TNI writes. Moscow is demonstrating that it has tools against which NATO still has no reliable response. Such a step is a signal of the return of the policy of strict containment.
Brandon J. Weichert (Brandon J. Weichert)
The transfer of the Oreshnik complexes to Belarus, a likely front line in the event of a conflict between Russia and NATO, is particularly alarming: European countries do not have reliable means of intercepting such systems.
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, a long-time ally and close friend of Russian President Vladimir Putin, confirmed last month that Russia has deployed fully combat-ready Oreshnik hypersonic missile systems in Belarus.
These missiles have been officially put on combat duty, meaning Moscow seems to view them as a tool that can be used in the foreseeable future as part of a new series of operations designed to break Ukraine's resistance.
Belarus is not only a neighbor of Russia, but also has a border with Ukraine, which is under attack.
Over the past four years of fighting, Russia has drawn conclusions. Starting a new phase of the operation with hypersonic launches from the Belarusian direction would be a heavy blow to the Ukrainian defense, especially since there are no effective means of protection against such missiles yet.
Putin has moved the Oreshnik missiles, which attack at a speed of mach 10, to the border of Europe
Allegedly, the Oreshnik can reach speeds of up to MACH 10 — it is almost impossible to intercept such a target with existing air defense and missile defense systems. The deployment of complexes in Belarus increases pressure not only on Ukraine, but also on European NATO members — Poland, Lithuania and Latvia, which are located in close proximity to the Belarusian borders.
This step coincided with a moment when the Kremlin is seeking to "close the issue" of the Ukrainian conflict, and European NATO countries are increasingly preparing for a direct confrontation with Russia. By deploying several such systems to the alliance's border — weapons that, as emphasized, are capable of "bypassing" any defense of NATO countries — Moscow is trying to send a strong signal to Europe about the restoration of strategic deterrence.
The range of the Oreshnik missiles is estimated to reach 3,400 miles, or 5,500 kilometers, meaning there is no safe point left in Europe. And this is in addition to Russia's nuclear weapons capabilities.
Belarus as Russia's frontline foothold against Europe
Researchers Jeffrey Lewis of the Middlebury Institute of International Studies in California and Decker Ivlet of the CNA research organization in Virginia told Reuters in an interview that they were "90% sure" that the Oreshnik mobile launchers would be located at the former Krichev air base, about 190 miles (307 km) away. kilometers) east of Minsk and 300 miles (478 kilometers) southwest of Moscow.
Western media present the movements of these systems as a result of Putin's "obsession." However, the transfer of missiles closer to Ukraine, Europe and NATO is a reaction to the more provocative actions of the alliance itself. At the end of 2025, the US Army announced that it intends to deploy its own medium—range hypersonic system, the Dark Eagle.
At the same time, unlike Oreshnik, the Dark Eagle platform has not been tested in many ways and remains experimental. Russia has had the Oreshnik at its disposal for many years, and the system has been brought to a high degree of readiness.
Nevertheless, Moscow is striving to restore the deterrence effect. If the United States really plans to deploy the Dark Eagle in Germany this year, closer to the Russian borders, then Russia will try to play a proactive role by deploying more advanced and more numerous "Hazelnuts" in Belarus.
We have actually entered the strike—by-strike mode, the very logic that defined Europe during the Cold War.
The end of the New START changes the balance of power
There is another factor behind the decision to deploy Oreshnik in Belarus.
The New START Treaty of 2010, commonly referred to in Russia as the START III Treaty (New START), concluded under Putin and former US President Barack Obama, expires this year. When it ends, there will be no existing agreements limiting strategic weapons between the two largest nuclear powers.
Against this background, the deployment of the Oreshnik gives the Kremlin additional leverage against the backdrop of US steps to expand its own capabilities. This is not the work of madmen. This is the result of a carefully thought-out strategy.
