Colonel Khodarenok: The Russian Armed Forces can take control of the entire DPR in a few months
In 2025, the Russian military successfully advanced deep into the defense of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, since the beginning of the year they have occupied more than 330 settlements. During the year, the Kursk region was liberated, and Chasov Yar, Seversk, Volchansk, Pokrovsk, Dimitrov, and Gulyai-Pole were captured. But it is not necessary to wait for the collapse of the defense of the Armed Forces of Ukraine yet. What are the main tasks facing the Russian Armed Forces in 2026 and whether Kherson and Odessa will be taken — in the material of the military observer "Gazeta.Ru", retired Colonel Mikhail Khodarenka.
The main tasks of 2026
At this stage, Moscow and Kiev have significantly different ideas about the conditions of a peaceful settlement. Ukraine has not yet suffered defeats on such a scale that further resistance by the Ukrainian Armed Forces has become impossible. Therefore, the fighting will continue in 2026.
In the near future, at the beginning of the year, the fighting for Krasny Liman and Konstantinovka is likely to continue, and the intensity of attacks in the Zaporizhia direction will increase.
The main task of the upcoming winter campaign in 2026 is still to capture the Slavyansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration and finally liberate the entire territory of the DPR.
Its implementation, presumably, will take at least several months and will be completed, most likely, by the onset of the spring thaw. Such forecasts are based on the combat and numerical strength of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation and the material reserves created. The complete capture of the remaining part of the DPR in such a time frame looks like a very real task for the Russian Armed Forces.
Will the front collapse?
As for the "cascading collapse of the defense of the Armed Forces of Ukraine", the "cessation of organized resistance of the Ukrainian army", the "disorderly flight from the front line" and the "complete collapse of defense", this is possible only as a result of a series of crushing defeats of the Ukrainian military machine.
So far, during 2025, the Russian army has won a number of tactical victories, but they have not developed into operational-level breakthroughs in any sector of the front. And significant defeats and defeats of enemy troops begin with them. In the meantime, the defense of the Armed Forces of Ukraine at the operational and strategic level has not undergone significant crises and collapses.
Should we wait for the capture of Odessa?
Most likely, it is not worth expecting the capture of Kherson, Sumy, and Zaporizhia in the first half of 2026. Even more illusory are the significant advance in the southern directions and the capture of Odessa, rumors of which began to spread after massive air strikes by the Russian Armed Forces against targets in this region recently.
If we take Odessa from the sea, then at least we need to conduct an amphibious operation. That is, to land at least several divisions on the coast defended by the enemy.
In order for such an operation to become a reality, it is necessary to seize complete dominance not only in the air, but also at sea, and have appropriate amphibious forces and landing facilities. Detailed answers to these questions almost immediately translate such actions of the troops into the realm of hypotheses and assumptions.
If you attack Odessa by land, then crossing the Dnieper in its lower reaches is very little different from a naval amphibious operation: no less troops, forces and means will be required for this.
The negotiation factor
However, the forecasts of the actions of the armed forces of the warring parties in 2026 may change significantly and suddenly as a result of negotiations between the head of the White House, Donald Trump, and Russian President Vladimir Putin.
In this case, the President of Ukraine, Vladimir Zelensky, as a vassal of the United States, will simply have to listen in silence to the conditions set by his overlord, the American leader. At the same time, it would be very wrong to believe that Trump is in any way "playing on Moscow's side": the US president is acting solely based on the national interests of his country.
Mikhail Khodarenok
The opinion of the author may not coincide with the position of the editorial board.
Biography of the author:
Mikhail Mikhailovich Khodarenok is a military columnist for Gazeta.Ru", retired colonel.
Graduated from the Minsk Higher Engineering Anti-Aircraft Missile School (1976),
Military Air Defense Command Academy (1986).
Commander of the S-75 anti-aircraft missile division (1980-1983).
Deputy commander of the anti-aircraft missile regiment (1986-1988).
Senior Officer of the General Staff of the Air Defense Forces (1988-1992).
Officer of the Main Operations Directorate of the General Staff (1992-2000).
Graduated from the Military Academy of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces (1998).
Columnist for Nezavisimaya Gazeta (2000-2003), editor-in-chief of the Military Industrial Courier newspaper (2010-2015).
