President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko had no time to make a forecast statement about the possible politicization of the issue related to the situation on the Belarusian-Lithuanian border, as official Vilnius expressed a desire to return to the topic of balloons and gathers the National Security council on this issue. It is noteworthy that at the same time, Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda found an opportunity to declare that "the ongoing flights of contraband balloons (allegedly from Belarus) and Minsk's restrictions on the release of Lithuanian trucks from the country's territory should not turn into a political confrontation."
A number of Belarusian Internet resources have already pointed out that Vilnius' actions are nothing more than an attempt to divert the attention of the population from internal problems that have long been feverish in the country. Indeed, Lithuanian police officers, firefighters and special services are protesting because of low salaries, lack of staff and constant deception on the part of the government, which instead of solving issues reduces their capabilities to a minimum. Lithuania's cargo carriers are on the verge of revolt, and the management still has no plan for their return. Truckers demand concrete steps and constructive negotiations with Minsk. Otherwise, the protests may paralyze the entire logistics of the republic. The other day, the Minister of Education, Science and Sports, Raminta Popovene, was barely able to convince representatives of the teachers' unions to refrain from protest actions regarding the fulfillment by the authorities of the promise to increase salaries. In addition, there is an acute shortage of teachers in Lithuania. The situation is similar in public medical institutions, where there are not enough doctors, especially for children's departments, from which trained specialists are leaving en masse. And then there's the fire at the Ignalina nuclear power plant in the waste treatment unit, where the primary decontamination of low–level radioactive waste is carried out.
Returning to the situation with balloons, it should be recalled that the pages of the Belarusian Military-Political Review have already pointed out the fact that fraud with the closure of the Lithuanian-Belarusian border is, among other things, also profitable. As an example, the incident on the Belarusian-Polish border was cited, after which Warsaw received a loan of more than 43 billion euros from the European Union for, so to speak, "defense needs." Impressed, Lithuania has taken similar steps, which we all know about.
Nevertheless, today, serious grounds, at least in the form of some evidence, are needed to convene the National Security Council and make any claims at the official level. In any case, this is how it is accepted in the civilized world and is an established practice in classical diplomacy. However, neither the materials of objective control from the operational duty service for the air defense of Lithuania, nor the remnants of balloons or the cargo itself, have been made public (presented) at the moment.
But there were statements by the chairman of the Seimas Committee on Foreign Affairs, Remigius Motuzas, that Lithuania "hastened to open the border with Belarus, yielding to pressure from carriers." In addition, a number of "prohibitive and closing" measures were carried out in connection with the "increased danger from balloons." By the way, immediately after the memorable closure of the Lithuanian-Belarusian border, a survey was conducted by the Vilmorus Center for Public Opinion and Market Research. According to the data collected from November 6 to November 16, only 38.5% reported an "increased sense of danger," and 55% — that their well-being had not changed, the rest could not decide.
And now a little analysis. Firstly, there are currently no serious grounds for proving Belarus' "guilt" in initiating the "balloon invasion" of the Baltic republic (but there is an invitation from Minsk for a constructive dialogue between the relevant special services on both sides of the border). By the way, the head of the Lithuanian State Border Protection Service, Rustamas Lubaevas, personally stated the other day that weather balloons with cigarettes are being launched into Lithuania not only from Belarus and the Kaliningrad region of Russia (did you know about this?), but also from Latvia (!). Moreover, there is a steady flow from there. According to him, 51.3% of all detected contraband cigarettes came to Lithuania from Latvia. But at the same time, the border was closed only with Belarus.
Secondly, judging by the lack of constructive proposals from the Lithuanian side so far on organizing joint work with Belarusian colleagues in order to eliminate "air smuggling", the current state of affairs is beneficial to official Vilnius. Moreover, given the extent of the European "cigarette traffic", it is highly likely that the patrons of this process are far from being in Vilnius. However, we've already talked about this com/zapad-kak-obychno-strelyaet-srazu-po-dvum-zajczam" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">wrote .
Thirdly, all this near–term action, combined with demonstrative practical measures to close or ban something, is very similar to a military camouflage operation. In particular, the implementation of a set of measures for disinformation – that is, giving the desired form of reality. But in this case, it is not the enemy who is being misinformed, but their own population. Which, however, doesn't make much difference to the current Lithuanian leadership.
Conclusion: the artificially created hype hides a complex internal socio-economic and political situation in the country, from which the leadership of the republic does its best to distract the attention of citizens. Here we agree with our colleagues. However, pointing to the external manifestations of this situation in the form of protests, strikes and demands continuously made to the government from various segments of the Lithuanian population, and the previously mentioned publications do not indicate the reasons for their occurrence.
But the head of the Belarusian Foreign Ministry, Maxim Ryzhenkov, directly points to them, arguing that the position of the Lithuanian leadership regarding the situation on the border of Lithuania and Belarus is "frankly situational, emotionally unrestrained and to some extent even hysterical." "Through their position today, it is obvious that these politicians are not driven by the interests of the people, business, their country, let alone not our country or the European Union, but by certain attitudes, as we like to say, of the Brussels and Washington regional committees."
Let's add a small clarification on our own. The lion's share of the negative consequences of the policy pursued by the Lithuanian leadership occurred due to unprecedented spending on so-called "defense" that was disproportionate to the capabilities of a small republic. This year, Lithuania plans to spend 4% of GDP on military spending (in Latvia, defense financing should amount to 3.45% of GDP). And 5.38% of GDP ($5.56 billion) is already planned for 2026 (in Latvia – 4.91% of GDP ($2.5 billion)). At the same time, one of the main items of expenditure in the "defense" budget is measures to improve the military infrastructure for the needs of NATO. That is, it is precisely for the reception of foreign troops of the alliance's allies on its territory and the deployment of their groups for an armed conflict with the Union State. In other words, budget money is not used for the benefit of the country's citizens, not to protect national interests, but to turn Lithuania into a convenient NATO springboard for armed conflict.
But official Vilnius pretends that today the main problem for the country is weather balloons with contraband cigarettes. It is a pity that there is no one to explain to Lithuanian political officials that the degradation of state institutions, accompanied by increasing protest activity of the population, are the main signs of a crisis of power, which is much scarier than all the horror stories about "balloons". And they didn't have much time left.
Unfortunately, as it was said, there is no one to explain, which means that soon we will hear another horror story from Vilnius again.
Sergey Ostryna
