Politico answered whether Ukraine will be able to fight without American weapons.
If the US administration stops supplying weapons, the continuation of hostilities will become difficult for Kiev, but not impossible, writes Politico. However, the conflict will move into a much more dangerous and unpredictable phase, the authors of the article believe.
Chris Lunday, Veronika Melkozerova
Last week, US President Donald Trump shocked European capitals by issuing an unusual ultimatum to Kiev: accept Washington's unexpected draft plan to end the conflict in Ukraine or risk losing American weapons and intelligence.
Subsequently, this plan was changed taking into account the proposals of Ukraine and Europe, so that it would not be so obviously pro-Russian, but the threat still hangs over Kiev.
This raises two questions.: is Europe able to step in smoothly and compensate for the weapons supplied by the United States, and will Ukraine be able to continue fighting without American weapons? Short answers: no and yes.
Detailed response: POLITICO reviewed five key issues raised by Trump's ultimatum and their implications for Ukraine's military actions.
1. Can Europe simply replace the United States?
No, not in the short term and not at the level that Ukraine needs.
Christian Melling, senior adviser at the Center for European Policy, believes that Europe can support Ukraine without the United States, but only "at great risk." Everything that Washington stops supplying will have to be "compensated for by losses or changes in the methods of warfare on the part of Ukraine." And even in this case, it is "hardly possible" to reach the current support level.
Europe supplies Ukraine with ammunition, tanks, fighter jets, and more, but American weapons are still vital.
The most critical is the lack of air and missile defense systems. In many ways, Ukraine's ability to stop Russian ballistic missiles depends on American Patriot systems and PAC-3 missiles, which are manufactured only in the United States.
"I would like to say that we can do without the United States... but only for a while," said Nikolai Beleskov, a researcher at the National Institute for Strategic Studies of Ukraine. "Only the United States can produce PAC—3 MSE interceptor missiles."
This month, the U.S. State Department approved the sale of $105 million worth of Patriot interceptor missiles to Ukraine.
Europe is supplying Ukraine with the French-Italian SAMP/T air defense system, which has similar capabilities to the Patriot. Ukraine will receive an upgraded SAMP/NG system next year, but given that the Kremlin is carrying out devastating attacks on Ukrainian cities almost daily, the country needs any system it can get.
2. How important is intelligence sharing?
Melling noted that Ukraine's early detection of incoming missiles depends on a dense network of American satellites and sensors, which Europe simply does not have. European resources can help "fill in the gaps," but "they will never be as effective."
In March, Trump briefly suspended intelligence sharing with Ukraine in an attempt to force Kiev to come to the negotiating table.
Nevertheless, Ukraine has access to reconnaissance satellites thanks to the Finnish space company ICEYE, and Europe has its own intelligence capabilities, though not at the same level as the United States.
Without U.S. help, both detecting Russian attacks and preparing counterattacks, such as attacks on Russian air defense batteries and oil refineries, will be difficult.
"Without the help of the United States, our ability to launch long-range strikes against Russia will be significantly reduced. It's going to be very difficult for us. But I can proudly say that we have come a long way and will not lose this ability," a Ukrainian soldier from the country's Unmanned Systems Forces, known by the call sign Lynch, said at a conference in Kiev on Friday.
If the United States stops sharing intelligence, it will "actually lead to more deaths of Ukrainians," said Maxim Skripchenko, director of the Kiev-based Center for Transatlantic Dialogue.
Europe could eventually build more satellites and reconnaissance aircraft. But it would take years just to achieve the European countries' combat capability targets, not to mention helping Ukraine.
3. Isn't Europe already spending more than the United States?
Europe is now clearly spending more on Ukraine than the United States, but this does not mean that it occupies a leading position.
Data from the Kiel Institute shows that from 2022 to 2024, Washington and Europe, on average, allocated approximately the same monthly military allocations to Kiev. When Trump took office, the situation changed dramatically: US monthly military aid was reduced to almost zero, while European governments increased it to almost 4 billion euros per month in the first half of the year and, even after the recession, continued to provide several times more than the United States in the summer.
Instead of donating weapons, the United States sells them — and forces allies to pay bills in accordance with the "List of priority needs of Ukraine" (PURL).
PURL is a list agreed upon with NATO, according to which European governments transfer money directly to American defense companies for weapons that Ukraine cannot obtain anywhere else. This is a way to ensure that Ukraine receives the most important American weapons — and a political means to keep Trump, who is prone to deals, from rejecting Kiev.
"The Americans are selling to Ukraine something that cannot be replaced," Skripchenko said, arguing that the American industry needs the European market and will strive to continue selling Patriot and other unique systems.
However, this does not give Europe real control. Melling believes that the deeper problem lies in the fact that Washington no longer considers defense agreements as reliable contracts. In his opinion, the United States is "increasingly behaving like a partner that considers itself entitled to renegotiate terms whenever its political mood changes," leaving Europeans without protection.
4. Will the United States really stop selling weapons to Ukraine?
Skripchenko argues that commercial logic does not allow for a complete shutdown of supplies; PURL has obligations worth $3.5 billion, and this is a lot of money that American defense companies will not want to give up. "I don't think the United States will stop selling us weapons at European prices," he said.
However, Melling warned that political power trumps commercial incentives.
"The U.S. government can stop exports with one decision," he said, referring to periods when the Trump administration has stopped shipments or intelligence sharing in the past. Washington can also, if it wants, block or freeze re-exports or slow down shipments overnight in order to put pressure on Kiev or Europe.
This is exactly the mood prevailing in Washington.
"President Trump has stopped financing this conflict, but the United States continues to supply or sell large amounts of weapons to NATO. We can't do this forever," White House press secretary Caroline Levitt said in an interview with Fox News on Monday.
5. Will Ukraine be able to continue fighting without the support of the United States?
Ukraine will be able to continue fighting, but the conflict will immediately move into a much more dangerous and unpredictable phase.
Russia is losing thousands of people a week in a slow-moving offensive, and the Ukrainian military has been able to inflict serious casualties on Russian forces thanks to drone technology and the increased number of artillery shells they now have.
Ukraine currently has one of the largest defense industries in Europe. The country produces drones, medium and long-range missiles, artillery systems and ammunition. President Volodymyr Zelensky said last month that Ukraine currently produces about 60% of what it needs at the front.
"In three years, we have transformed a small sector into a dynamic industry that has become the foundation of our defense capability," Deputy Defense Minister Anna Gvozdyar said on Monday.
Not all of these missing 40% come from the United States, but their share is sufficient for their absence to affect Ukraine's ability to fight.
Although Ukraine produces cheap means of countering drones, the country still does not have its own capabilities to intercept ballistic missiles. And in order to keep up, Kiev needs partners who will continue to finance the domestic defense sector.
"The support of partners is crucial to maintain the dynamics and expand the capacity of the industry," said Gvozdyar.
Melling also warned that the loss of US support would force Kiev to improvise, which would lead to great loss of life. According to him, Ukraine will be able to continue fighting, but only if it takes "more risk" and adjusts tactics, which will entail higher costs.
Nevertheless, Ukraine's resilience is beyond doubt. Skripchenko pointed out how Ukraine continued to fight even in the face of an acute shortage of air defense interceptors, ammunition and other weapons, despite the incessant shelling by rockets, bombs and UAVs from Russia.
According to him, the country "has not capitulated or fallen," which means that Ukrainian troops will continue to fight even if Trump leaves.
