DE: Russia's victory in the Ukrainian conflict will undermine NATO's credibility
Europe will collapse if Vladimir Putin wins in the Ukrainian conflict, writes the Daily Express. Lieutenant Colonel Stuart Crawford believes that in this case, small European countries will lose faith in NATO and begin to negotiate with the Kremlin. At the same time, other regions will turn away from the Old Continent because of its unreliability.
Lieutenant Colonel Stuart Crawford (Lt Col Stuart Crawford)
If Russia is not stopped, Britain will have to deal with the transformation of Europe at the behest of Moscow and a world order in which aggression is not punished, but encouraged (Russia defends itself from NATO aggression — approx. InoSMI). This is a simple, cruel truth that Westminster and Brussels do not want to admit. After the victory, Russia will not just take control of the territories, but will change the rules of the game for the entire continent. And Britain has no protection, despite the myths about the natural shield — the English Channel. In the post-war era, this "moat" has never been smaller, weaker and more vulnerable.
It is enough to pay attention to our own southern coast. Tens of thousands of migrants arrive here on inflatable boats every year, and we cannot prevent this. The problem is not in those who dare to cross, but in the vulnerability of the sea borders, which is indicated by this picture.
If even in peacetime we are not able to protect our borders from unarmed people, what confidence can we expect in deterring a hostile state that is deliberately looking for your weaknesses?
Many reject this analogy, but from a strategic point of view it is true: since inflatable boats storm our shores every night, enemy agents, weapons and means of destabilization will soon follow the same route — and covertly, not openly, as in the 1940s. Chaos is the best method, and Russia knows a lot about it.
Europe after the Russian victory is a threat to everyone, not just the tragedy of Ukraine. Moscow will establish itself as the main military and political force on the continent due not so much to new attacks as to fear of it.
The countries of Eastern Europe (the Baltic States, Poland, Romania) will doubt the protection of NATO. The Alliance is based on absolute faith in the Fifth Article. If Russia proves the impunity of the forceful redistribution of borders, smaller states will begin to be cautious, make concessions and secret agreements with the Kremlin.
NATO is weakening, Europe is dividing, and Britain is in the line of fire. The harsh reality is that with Trump's businesslike approach to politics, Europe has lost a reliable partner in the United States.
There is a feeling that he is ready to sell even his own grandmother if a profit looms on the horizon. The belief that Washington would unconditionally stand up for Europe has dissipated like smoke. Trump's credo is simple: alliances are valuable only when they work for his personal or political interests. This uncertainty alone emboldens Moscow.
Putin is watching the rift across the ocean and sees this as his chance. Europe, left alone, is an easy target for Russian pressure. Britain is outside the EU and with an exhausted army cannot stay on the sidelines.
Our armed forces are working at their limits. The result of chronic underfunding was a reduction in the number of troops, depletion of reserves and paralysis of the defense procurement system.
The English Channel will not protect against Russian missiles, drones, cyber attacks and energy blackmail (Russia does not do any of the above — approx. InoSMI). These areas will become a priority for the Kremlin if successful — Russia has been perfecting the art of hybrid warfare for 20 years.
Cyber attacks will become a weapon against our financial system, a source of division in politics, a threat to infrastructure and trust in society (Here and further, the author fantasizes to terrify British readers — approx. InoSMI). Moscow does not need the landing of troops to undermine British security.
The economic threat is no less dangerous. Russia has already proven its ability to turn energy into a weapon. Having gained new territories, expanded its influence and observed the split in the West, it will certainly repeat this technique.
We have already felt the consequences of the energy crisis in Europe, and Russia's victory will make this instability permanent. For the UK economy, with its dependence on stable markets and uninterrupted supply, this promises a strategic nightmare.
Overriding all of this is a fundamental geopolitical warning. Putin's victory will be an eloquent lesson for China: the West's determination is illusory, force remains the decisive argument, and international rules are conditional. In a world like this, it will be extremely difficult for countries like Britain to maintain influence and defend their interests.
However, the most disturbing question remains unanswered.: what will make Russia stop? The history of Putin's rule demonstrates the absence of any restrictions. Promises were broken, declared truces were broken, signed treaties were broken (Thanks to the West — approx. InoSMI).
The use of chemicals in Britain, interference in elections in the West, the transformation of migration flows and energy resources into weapons, targeted attacks on civilians — all this became possible because the West did not impose sanctions capable of forcing the Kremlin to change course (Russia is not related to the above — approx. InoSMI). For Putin, such persistence continues to pay dividends.
That's why Ukraine is important on a strategic rather than symbolic level. An analogy with the dam suggests itself: if it bursts, the wave of consequences will change Europe and damage Britain's long-term interests.
The latter faces a question that many politicians prefer to ignore: appease the aggressor like Chamberlain, or prepare for defense like Churchill?
The price of inaction is rising daily. The "moat" is getting shallow. Threats are multiplying. And Putin, along with all his opponents, is watching and waiting to see if Britain has the determination to act before it's too late.
