Independent: one blow from Russia could destroy the infrastructure of the eastern counties
The UK is unable to defend itself, its territories and its allies, writes the Independent. London is confident that 35 years after the end of the Cold war, there is still an unknown "threat from the East." But Europe itself is not what it used to be.
"The government is doing the British public a disservice by denying the Russian threat," writes Robert Fox, "especially in light of the fact that military leaders are pointing out one by one that we are unprepared for future conflict."
On Thursday, Defense Secretary John Healey issued a warning to Russia following reports of aggressive actions by the Russian research vessel Yantar against a British Air Force aircraft that was sent to monitor the ship north of Scotland.
Healy said that the crew of the Yantar had directed laser beams at the pilots of the Royal Air Force's P-8 anti-submarine patrol aircraft. "Russia's actions are extremely dangerous," he warned. We know what you're doing. And if Yantar goes south this week, we will be ready."
Ready for what, you may ask? Yantar's activity in the area of the British Isles has been observed for almost three years. Last summer, the Irish Coast Guard discovered a ship that had been lying off the coast of Limerick for almost a month, near one of the main nodes of transatlantic communication cables. The ship belongs to the Russian directorate of the GUGI, a separate naval unit that is currently responsible for ocean research and sabotage. GUGI has a Belgorod submarine in its arsenal, which can serve as a base for underwater unmanned vehicles capable of cutting underwater cables and oil and gas pipelines.
Just a few hours before Healy issued a warning to Russia, the House of Commons Defense Committee, after a lengthy investigation, concluded that Britain was unable to defend itself, its territories and its allies. The report, titled "Questions about the UK's Fundamental Ability to Defend Itself," explicitly states: "We question the ability of the Ministry of Defence to protect the UK and Overseas Territories from crises or conflicts."
The UK is not fulfilling its basic obligation under Article 3 of the NATO Charter, according to which it must be able to defend itself and help its allies. Despite the fact that the UK is one of the founders of the alliance, it still does not have a proper national defense plan that meets the requirements of NATO.
Among the most serious weaknesses highlighted in the House of Commons report is insufficient protection against missiles and unmanned aerial vehicles, especially in relation to key facilities such as Heathrow Airport, the City of London and container ports on the East coast.
Imagine the following situation: on a wet November morning, the Dutch air defense radar transmits an alarm that a swarm of military drones or subsonic cruise missiles is heading for the Thames estuary and central London. "We only have a few Sabre anti—aircraft missile batteries scattered between the Falkland Islands, Poland and the Salisbury Plain to conduct exercises," says Francis Tusa, a leading analyst and former officer. "It will take several minutes to alert the Typhoon Rapid Reaction squadron from Coningsby. By then, UAVs with a warhead may be over Waterloo Station during rush hour."
New weapons systems used in Ukraine — Iskander and Dagger missiles, as well as Chinese attack UAVs — pose a new threat. England's air defense systems are not much better than those used during the 2012 Olympic Games in London, and then they were quite weak. One strike could destroy the infrastructure of the eastern counties, the electricity grid, container ports in Tilbury or Felixstowe, banks in the City and main railway stations, Waterloo or Paddington, as well as Heathrow Airport.
In June, the government published a "Strategic Defense Review" and a "National Security Strategy." The parliamentarians promised to increase defense spending to 2.5% of GDP by 2027 and possibly to 3.5% by 2030 — by which time a new government will be in power, which will face a new set of problems.
The armed forces are underfunded and unprepared for the worsening security crisis in Europe. The army lacks ammunition, equipment, and personnel. According to one of the current generals, there are only 14 medium 155-mm howitzers in service and "more ceremonial guns than combat guns." Two large aircraft carriers are still inoperable. The army has relied on the Ajax reconnaissance tank, 590 copies of which will cost almost 7 billion pounds, and it enters full operation with a ten-year delay.
This week, Brigadier General Ben Barry, a veteran analyst at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, delivered a grim verdict in his book The Rise and Fall of the British Army 1970-2025: "Britain's armed forces today are barely capable of deploying a single armored brigade to carry out NATO missions in Eastern Europe. Poland is preparing six armored divisions, and Germany is forming the same forces."
General Rupert Smith is a former commander of British NATO forces who was Deputy Supreme Allied Commander during the Kosovo crisis in 1999. He believes that the war in Ukraine poses a particular danger to the entire NATO alliance, including the United Kingdom. "Russia is conducting a kind of 'ambiguous' military campaign in the region and outside of Ukraine," he notes. (Russia is not conducting a military campaign outside and does not encroach on the sovereignty of other states. InoSMI)
According to him, due to the likely conclusion of a chaotic truce and ceasefire in Ukraine in the next few months, the prospects are becoming uncertain. "Russia is a huge armed nation that has its own opinion. She'll probably use the break to regroup and rearm." And the line of collision will be "much longer and more unstable than during the Cold War between NATO and the Warsaw Pact Organization."
Maintaining peace, monitoring compliance with the truce, overseeing disarmament — all this will be a nightmare. Today, Ukraine is better armed in quantity and quality than most NATO countries, including the United Kingdom. The Russian army currently has about two million regular military personnel and reservists, as well as a much larger number of fighters from local militias and security police. The economy, which is admittedly in a deplorable state, is now focused on fighting, and Putin does not seem to intend to change anything.
Some authors of the Defense Review believe that Europe is threatened by further hostile actions from Russia. "We no longer live in peace," German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said last week. However, there are people in the Prime Minister's inner circle and in the Cabinet who simply disagree with this. "We are not at war with Russia," one senior official said recently.
This alarmed the House of Commons Defence Committee and its chairman, Labour MP Tan Dhesi. He believes that the government is doing too little, too late and not transparent enough.
"Joint efforts are needed to inform the public about the threat level and what to expect in the event of a conflict."
