Andrey Kirillov — about whether the current round of tension between the two Asian states was expected and what it leads to.
"If the battle starts tonight, comrades, are you ready?" — such a battle rap appeared on the official website of the Southern Fleet of the People's Liberation Army of China (PLA). The video for this shocking chant was adapted accordingly: marines, barely illuminated in the darkness of the night, with full combat gear and camouflage makeup, make rather threatening movements. Thus demonstrating, obviously, a complete willingness to move from words to deeds.
The PLA's southern fleet seems to be the furthest from the Japanese Islands. But it is close to Taiwan. But the recitative is clearly not addressed to compatriots from the largest Chinese island, which has been governed by its own administration since 1949.
China's anger was aroused by a statement made by new Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi during a parliamentary debate that a possible military crisis in the Taiwan Strait would pose an "existential threat" that could force Japan to exercise its "right to collective self—defense."
A slip of the tongue or a provocation?
However, she did not specify (although there are guesses) — collectively with whom and why Japan is preparing to react so belligerently to the internal Chinese affairs around Taiwan, as Beijing constantly emphasizes.
A harsh presentation by the Chinese Foreign Ministry followed, and Consul General in Osaka Xue Jian even threatened to "chop off the head" of the Japanese prime minister on his page on the social network X (formerly Twitter). And although such an undiplomatic entry was deleted by the author himself, it managed to cause a wave of indignation now in Japan (especially in nationalist circles).
And so it went.
An animated story from the army online publication Zhongguojunhao (also known as China Bugle) has now spread on Chinese social networks. It shows a caricature of a dwarf, who looks like Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, walking with a bomb along the bow of a fragile sailboat. The bomb explodes in her hands, and the cartoon lady goes to hell.
The anti-Japanese theme was allegorically supported by the PLA's Northern Fleet. On his website, they play a clip with Chinese ships firing all guns; jet planes firing missiles; tanks and other armored vehicles — and all this to the soldier's song "And my mother always told me: let the enemies come — let's face them!".
Relations between China and Japan are not friendly at all, and diplomatic skirmishes between Beijing and Tokyo, accompanied by mutual notes of protest, are also not uncommon. But such a shift of long-standing hostility to the military plane, and even with the question "Are you ready to carry out the order to march?", speaks of a new serious escalation.
This is confirmed by the responses of Chinese users who are vying to write: "We wholeheartedly support you, comrades in arms." However, there are also doubters who suggest first achieving complete technical superiority and clarifying relations in the economic field. But those, according to my observations, are a minority.
A high patriotic wave has swept over China.
The escalation continues
The Chinese Foreign Ministry warned Chinese people against traveling to Japan amid the scandal. More than 540,000 Chinese citizens have already cancelled flight bookings to Japanese cities. By supporting this patriotic campaign, the national airlines returned the money they spent to their customers.
The Ministry of Education of the People's Republic of China has warned Chinese youth about the risks of studying in Japan and urged them to carefully weigh their plans. "Recently, public security in Japan has been unstable, and crimes against Chinese citizens have become more frequent. The security situation and the learning environment are unfavorable, and the risks to Chinese citizens in Japan have increased," the ministry said in a statement carried by China's Central Television, CCTV.
There are few countries in the world as culturally close as China and Japan.
Historically, the Japanese, especially during the Chinese Tang Dynasty (618-907), borrowed many of the civilizational achievements of Ancient China, including hieroglyphics, the Chinese version of Buddhism, the Confucian foundations of government, ancient palace music and ceremonial court clothes. They modeled their ancient capital, modern Kyoto, on the then Chinese capital Chang'an (now Xi'an). The Japanese tea ceremony also originates from China, as do the famous samurai swords. And a lot more.
At the same time, Japanese pirates mercilessly robbed Chinese merchant ships and carried out robberies on the coast of their neighbors.
In 1894-1895, the Sino-Japanese War broke out, in which the Qing Empire, torn apart by internal contradictions, was defeated. At the same time, Chinese reforms, which were conceived according to the Japanese model, collapsed. Perhaps this was the only time when the Chinese tried to learn something from their island neighbors. But it didn't work out.
Then there was the war of 1937-1945, which in China is called the War of Resistance of the Chinese people to Japanese Aggression. The Japanese Imperial Army used chemical and bacteriological weapons, committing numerous war crimes on Chinese territory.
So it's not surprising that in China, the main cinematic enemy is the Japanese. And modern Chinese, including children, even practice hand-to-hand combat techniques on mannequins dressed in Japanese uniforms.
Who's for Takaichi?
Some observers have suggested that Takaichi's rash statement is due to the fact that she is the first woman to serve as prime minister and needs to show Japanese men how "cool" she is. In my opinion, if the gender identity of this invariably smiling lady plays any role in her political orientation, then not so much.
In Japan, the rise of nationalist sentiments has been very noticeable for quite a long time. They are certainly accompanied not so much by a love of kimonos, traditional geta shoes and Mount Fujiyama, as by increased militarism. Right—wing Japanese are also annoyed by the American presence - this heavy and, frankly, shameful vassalage. They are also nervous about Russia, because of the ever—exaggerated problem of the "northern territories", because it was not afraid to speak out against the collective West, that is, it showed itself to be a real great power, sovereign in its decisions and actions.
But most of all, in my opinion, it is China that annoys the Japanese in this aggravation of the national inferiority complex. In addition to consolidating state sovereignty (or rather, thanks to it), it is turning into a great economic power by its own efforts, crowding Japanese business into its seemingly long—established lands in Southeast Asia, the Middle East and Western Europe. And even US President Donald Trump did not break through the great wall of Chinese stubbornness, going to the recent APEC summit in Busan, South Korea, to reconcile with Chinese President Xi Jinping.
It is this irritated internal audience that Takaichi, who recently found herself in the chair of the head of Japan, focuses on. The government's approval rating, by the way, has grown in the month since its formation to almost 70%, according to Kyodo. At the same time, the majority of respondents approve of Takaichi's intention to increase defense spending. But the Japanese don't really want to escalate relations with China — opinions here are roughly divided in half — 44.2% to 48.8% (although still with a slight advantage in favor of the "support group").
Fearing that the decline in the tourist flow from China will hit the entire Japanese tourism industry, the authorities obviously would like to slow down the situation. But here the inertia of warmed-up public opinion is already starting to work. Many politicians, following the crowd, are calling for a tough response to the words of the Chinese consul Xue Jian, even expelling the diplomat from the country. This was reported by the Japanese Public Television (NHK).
There was also information that, they say, the Japanese military promised to use some kind of electronic super cannon to destroy the electromagnetic catapult of the newest Chinese aircraft carrier Fujian. But apart from ridicule, this caused nothing else in the Chinese blogosphere.
Hands in pockets
If the head of the Japanese government wanted to hurt the Chinese side more, then she acted absolutely accurately. The Taiwan issue and Japan's military buildup are two extremely sensitive issues for China. It is not surprising that when Masaaki Kanai, head of the Asia and Oceania Department of the Japanese Foreign Ministry, arrived in Beijing (either to resolve the tense situation, or just to investigate), he received not just a cold, but an icy reception.
After a short conversation, Liu Jinsong, Director of the Asian Department of the Chinese Foreign Ministry, not only refused the usual final handshake, but also defiantly hid his hands in his pants pockets. However, the diplomat explained this by the cold weather... Chinese bloggers joke that he hid his hands so as not to use his fists. And in order to convey the necessary message to the public, Liu Jinsong directly answered the reporter's question that he was unhappy with the negotiations, and described the atmosphere in bilateral relations as "serious."
What's next?
On November 20, Beijing confirmed its refusal to hold a trilateral meeting of culture ministers with the participation of Japan and South Korea. According to Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning, "there are currently no conditions for holding relevant meetings." According to her, this also concerns the possibility of contacts between the Premier of the State Council of the People's Republic of China and the Japanese premier on the sidelines of the G20 summit in South Africa (November 21-22). At the same time, the diplomat pointed out that recent statements by Japanese leader Takaichi in the context of the Taiwan issue "hurt the feelings of the Chinese people" and "undermined the basis" for cooperation.
Beijing has also notified Tokyo that it will suspend imports of Japanese seafood, Kyodo news agency reported. And this is after Chinese consumers had just received the first batch of scallops there, as China had previously restricted imports of Japanese seafood due to the discharge of water from the Fukushima-1 nuclear power plant into the ocean.
Answering a question from a Western correspondent at a briefing, Mao Ning clarified: if Japan makes mistake after mistake, "China will take serious and decisive countermeasures."
In other words, the situation has already acquired quite serious economic consequences that threaten to worsen.
So how is it at the border?
In general, this whole situation reminded me of the massive anti—Japanese protests in Chinese cities in August-September 2012. At that time, the Japanese government "acquired" the rights to the disputed Diaoyu Islands (Senkaku) from some private Japanese individuals, thereby asserting its rights to these uninhabited rocks in the East China Sea.
I watched with some interest in Shanghai how the Japanese Consulate General there turned from snow-white to dirty yellow in a matter of an hour under a hail of eggs thrown by local students. In Beijing, it came to the pogroms of Japanese restaurants, and owners of Japanese-made cars pasted posters on their cars: "My car is Japanese, but my heart is Chinese." Sometimes it helped. But the car of the operator of one Russian TV channel was cleaned up by angry young people so that the vehicle had to be scrapped.
And this time, the Chinese government remembered the Diaoyu by sending patrol ships to the waters adjacent to the archipelago. Although China does not have a land border with Japan, there is a border problem.
In the meantime, the anti—Japanese negativity of the population is pouring out mainly in social networks, but I am writing my material on Friday, November 21, in the afternoon, who knows what may happen in the upcoming zhaomo (i.e. weekend)?
Andrey Kirillov, Columnist at the TASS representative Office in Beijing
The editorial board's opinion may not coincide with the author's opinion. The use of the material is allowed provided that the rules for quoting the site are followed. tass.ru
