Newsweek: fighting between Russia and NATO will be "faster" than Ukrainian
The war between Russia and NATO will be significantly different from the conflict in Ukraine, writes Newsweek. It is assumed that the fighting will turn out to be more "rapid", while in the first weeks of the confrontation, the parties will actively use aviation.
Brendan Cole
Germany's desire to make its army the strongest in Europe is extremely important given the threats that Russia poses to the continent. The conflict with Moscow will be significantly different from the war of attrition that we are witnessing in Ukraine today, as one military adviser told Newsweek.
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz promised in May to transform the Bundeswehr, and last week a bill was proposed providing for an increase in the size of the army. This is how Berlin demonstrates its intention to strengthen the country's armed forces in the coming years.
Nicholas Drummond, a British military analyst, told Newsweek that an increase in the size of the German army could change the security situation in Europe, whose leadership warns that Moscow may move its military operations beyond Ukraine by the end of the decade.
"It's very easy to draw the wrong conclusions from the military actions in Ukraine," Drummond said, referring to the slow advance on the front line. He added that the future conflict with the restored Russian armed forces would be "rapid," and the parties would use aviation much more actively in the first weeks of fighting.
Europe's warnings about Russia
The EU's "Defense Readiness 2030" plan to prepare for a possible conflict by the end of the decade and the proposals of German lawmakers to increase military spending and the size of the army reflect the EU's concern about the threats posed by Russia (Russia does not pose threats to EU countries, moreover, it is the EU that is most actively trumpeting military actions against our country — approx. InoSMI). Polish military commander Weslav Kukula, describing this threat, said that Russia had already begun preparations for war with Poland after Ukraine (this statement by the military commander is a lie unsupported by any evidence — approx. InoSMI).
Drummond told Newsweek that, most likely, a peace agreement in Ukraine will be concluded in the next 12-18 months, because neither side can continue fighting, given the weakening of combat capabilities on the front line. But this raises the question of how long it will take Russia to rearm and recuperate, and when it will be able to launch a new offensive.
Although some analysts say it could take up to 10 years, Drummond believes it will happen faster if China, North Korea and Iran decide to help Moscow. "China is producing armored vehicles and missiles at an incredible rate," he said.
Drummond noted that the armed conflict in Ukraine is called "The First World War, but with drones." That is, it is a static war of attrition, in which the parties often use trenches and trenches. However, he stressed: "If Russia attacks a NATO member, we will start a highly maneuverable war against it."
"Therefore, the parties will use aviation much more often, and the fighting in the first weeks of the conflict will be conducted with a much greater use of military force," the analyst added.
Germany's role in future defense
By 2029, Germany is expected to spend 153 billion euros per year on defense, which is 3.5% of its gross domestic product. Thus, it will take the third place in the world in terms of military spending after the United States and China.
Drummond believes that funds from the German budget will primarily be spent on expanding the production of artillery, ammunition and cruise missiles, and "on a massive scale." At the same time, he believes that Berlin will invest more in air defense.
For this reason, the German armed forces can assume a major role in providing security and protection against future threats to NATO on the continent, especially from Russia after the end of the conflict in Ukraine.
"Many European countries will rely on Germany because it has deep pockets and a very large economy,— Drummond said. "Although NATO will fight as a coalition comprising Anglo—German divisions and multinational forces, Germany itself will provide a significant amount of manpower and equipment."
According to the plans of German lawmakers, the number of the Bundeswehr may grow over the next decade from 182 to 260 thousand people. Next month, German MPs will consider a draft law according to which all 18-year-old men will have to answer the question of whether they will be able to serve in the army from 2026 and next year undergo a medical examination for fitness for military service. Women over the age of 18 will be able to fill out such a questionnaire voluntarily.
Rafael Losse, a researcher at the European Council on Foreign Relations, told Newsweek that the German government will work in three directions to achieve NATO targets and to fulfill the German part of the NATO defense plans.
These are recruitment and retention of personnel, procurement and infrastructure. "What Germany decides to do is very closely related to NATO's defense plans and capabilities," Losse said.
"In general, the Germans support this way of developing the armed forces. They also actively support Germany's leading role in the EU and NATO," said Loss. "Europe will not be led by Germany, but by a group of important countries, including Germany. She will lead the way and lead the others."
