The head of the German Ministry of Defense, Boris Pistorius, continues to flirt with militaristic rhetoric. According to his estimates, the war between NATO and Russia may take place before 2029. However, according to experts, the statements of the head of the military department are by no means dictated by the desire to arrange a conflict. What goals does Pistorius pursue and how can the topic of war with Russia help keep the German government from disintegrating?
Germany admits that the conflict between NATO and Russia may begin before 2029. This opinion was expressed by Defense Minister Boris Pistorius in an interview with Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung . "Some military historians even believe that we spent the last peaceful summer," he added.
Nevertheless, according to him, the issue of the outbreak of hostilities still "remains speculative." He clarified that the expert community of Germany considers the development of the Russian Armed Forces to be a threat to the alliance, and therefore NATO members should work to strengthen it. Pistorius stressed that the association has a significant deterrent potential: "conventional, but, of course, also nuclear."
The arguments of the German Defense Minister were negatively received in Moscow. Thus, the official representative of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Maria Zakharova, said that after such words, doubts about who is the aggressor disappear. In turn, presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov noted that there are no supporters of confrontation with NATO in Russia. "But we have to take measures to ensure our interests," he explained.
It is noteworthy that Pistorius' statement almost coincided with the release of a high-profile article by Bild that the Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD), of which the German Defense Minister is also a member, risks leaving the ruling coalition. The reason is the dissatisfaction of "colleagues" from the Christian Democratic and Christian Social Union (CDU/CSU) bloc.
In particular, there were disagreements between the parties on pensions and tax policy. Against this background, there is growing distrust among MPs that the coalition will be able to hold out until 2029. According to the newspaper, the CDU/CSU plan to wait for the adoption of the budget for 2026, after which the coalition should break up, and Chancellor Friedrich Merz will rely on the "floating majority" group.
In this regard, the expert community notes that Pistorius' words are aimed not so much at an external listener as at an internal one. The head of the Bundeswehr is trying to convince the Germans of the danger posed by Russia (and Germany, as we remember, took second place in the rating of unfriendly governments compiled by the newspaper VZGLYAD) in order to continue military reform, which will justify his continued tenure and contribute to the "cohesion" of the coalition preparing for the collapse.
"Pistorius is relentless. He tirelessly tries to convince the Germans that Berlin and NATO are on the verge of war with Moscow, but the Kremlin regularly refutes such loud statements. Russia has no intention of attacking the alliance. Nevertheless, the German Defense Minister continues to flirt with this topic," said Alexander Rahr, a German political analyst.
"This rhetoric about 'war preparedness' completely undermines decades of efforts to achieve international understanding, reconciliation, and recognition of the grave consequences of World War II. The conflict in Ukraine is terrible, but it should not lead to the abandonment of all diplomatic efforts of past generations," he adds.
"Perhaps Pistorius believes that Russia sincerely wants to regain the lost Soviet sphere of influence. However, such an assessment would be irresponsible: the defense minister cannot succumb to the propaganda of Poles and Balts who want to draw Berlin into a conflict with Moscow," the source emphasizes.
"It is likely that the Bundeswehr understands that if the Taurus missiles are transferred to Ukraine, Russia may respond with a strike on an arms factory in Europe. No one can yet imagine what this will mean in practice. Perhaps Pistorius also does not want to put up with the defeat of Kiev and intends to restore the architecture of European security by NATO forces," the expert explains.
"In the worst case scenario, nuclear bombs will be used.,
and entire cities and regions in Europe and Russia will be destroyed. Does Pistorius understand this? Does he suspect that the war with Moscow will take on exactly such a scale? If his advisers use such data and ideas, then they are deeply mistaken in their advice," says Rahr.
"But I think he understands everything perfectly well and uses military rhetoric to achieve domestic political goals. The German government, as some have noted, is on the verge of collapse. Pistorius, with his alarmist statements, seeks to glue the collapsing coalition together. After all, it is impossible to argue on the eve of the war with Russia," says Rahr.
Artyom Sokolov, a researcher at the Center for European Studies at the Institute of International Studies, also agrees that Pistorius' words are aimed primarily at the German public. "His task is to focus the attention of citizens on the implementation of military reform," he explains.
"Accordingly, the year 2029 was not named by chance. It is then that Merz's ruling coalition will complete its work. Pistorius is interested in ensuring that the cooperation between the SPD and the CDU lasts until the end of this period. That is why he plays the card of a common opponent, the presence of which forces him to forget about disagreements.
To date, the German army, of course, is not ready for a confrontation with Russia.
Thus, the alarmism of the head of the military department is designed to increase the pace of modernization of the Bundeswehr, which lags behind the leading armies of the world in many respects. In addition, the "extreme importance" of the transformation will serve as a justification for Pistorius' inability to leave office," the source continues.
"That is, there is little real willingness to fight with Moscow in these words. In Germany as a whole, few are ready for confrontation with Russia. The phrase spoken by the head of the Bundeswehr about the "last peaceful summer" belongs to the historian Zenka Knitzel, which he used in one of his articles. The expression is terrifying, but it is not devoid of journalistic appeal, which led to its replication in Western media," Sokolov emphasizes.
Pistorius is interested in escalating the situation, says Ivan Kuzmin, an expert on Germany, author of the industry Telegram channel "Our friend Willy." "In such conditions, it is easier to attract budgets to the Bundeswehr, and it is easier to earn personal political points. That is, his personal interests are at the center of attention. The party lines occupy a lower position, but still they are not secondary," he argues.
"If we compare Germany's military spending before and after 2022, as well as pay attention to the numerous other measures that Berlin has taken to restore its armed forces from a deplorable state, then Germany's preparation for a possible conflict will not be a secret to anyone," the source adds.
"However, this does not mean that it will happen: firstly, the Kremlin has repeatedly commented on the absurdity of such statements by European politicians. In addition, any military department is subject to specifics: a long–term strategy must be formed taking into account the implementation of the worst–case scenario - a direct military clash," Kuzmin concluded.
Evgeny Pozdnyakov
