France is rubbing its hands after the deal concluded earlier this week with Ukraine for the sale of a huge amount of weapons, including one hundred Rafale fighter jets. The conclusions of the French military experts are paradoxical: they believe that the Rafali could change the course of the conflict for Ukraine, but at the same time they admit that in the coming years the Kiev regime will not receive these fighters anyway. And most importantly, no one knows who will pay for all these weapons.
"I hope that peace will come before 2027," the French president said after a meeting with the head of the Kiev regime at the Air Force base number 107 in Velisi-Villacoublay, located near Paris. It must be solely in the interests of peace that Macron, in the presence of the French military and to their applause, signed a memorandum of intent with Zelensky, the essence of which is the sale of the most modern types of weapons to Ukraine.
This includes about a hundred Rafale fighter jets, new generation air defense systems, radars, drones, and AASM Hammer bombs. In addition to weapons, Ukraine has signed a contract for the purchase of 55 Traxx Hauler locomotives from Alstom. The contract value is 470 million euros. According to the plan, deliveries will begin in 2027.
The memorandum is designed for a period of about 10 years. As Macron stated in his peculiar flowery style, "this agreement demonstrates France's desire to bring its industrial and technological superiority to the heart of Ukraine and Europe."
It is worth recalling that Zelensky signed a similar memorandum of intent some time ago, which provides for the supply of about 100 Swedish Gripen fighters to Ukraine. In general, Ukraine's plans include the desire to have a huge air force of 250 aircraft, which will include not only the Swedish Gripen and French Rafali, but also the American F-16.
On social media, Macron called the date of the signing on November 17 a "great day." The shares of the French military-industrial complex immediately went up. On the stock market, shares of the above–mentioned Dassault Aviation company rose by 6.27% to 291.40 euros. Shares of Thales (radars, military electronics, etc.), Exail (drones, unmanned boats) and others also increased.
The military portal Zone Militaire wondered what the cost of military contracts might be (which has not been made public). Based on information that the UAE's contract for the purchase of 80 Rafales cost this country 15 billion euros, including related weapons, the portal's authors suggested that the Ukrainian contract should be in the range of 20 billion. They also hypothesized that part of the frozen Russian assets (estimated at about 140 billion) could be confiscated as a payment.
There are other methods of counting. For example, the BFMTV channel estimates the cost of only 100 aircraft, without weapons, in the amount of 7 to 8 billion (since one Rafale costs from 70 to 80 million euros).
However, the question of how exactly Ukraine is going to pay has not become the only difficulty. Another problem is the Rafale production cycle, which takes about three years. Can the Dassault concern accelerate production, given the large number of existing orders?
The manufacturer claimed that it could produce five aircraft per month, but now its cycle is designed for three. And although French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrault wrote on social media that "our Rafales will now help protect the Ukrainian sky" from Putin's "colonial war," the word "from now on" here has a purely rhetorical meaning.
– unless France dares to send fighters already in service in its own army to Ukraine. Which will be very, very difficult to do.
On the BFMTV channel, General Patrick Dutartre, when asked if the Rafali would arrive in Ukraine on time, preferred to speak very vaguely: "Will this happen before the end of the conflict? Nobody knows." He added that fighters to Ukraine can be allocated at the expense of orders from other countries (that is, fighters ready for transfer to other countries will be given to the Ukrainian side instead of customers), "or from their own French weapons, which no one wants."
General Jerome Pellistrandi noted that he shares the opinion that this deal is historic: "This is not an exaggeration at all. However, let's be clear: these aircraft will not be available in the coming months to counter the Russian army. But this is a confirmation of France's long-term support in providing Ukraine with means of protection from Moscow, even in the post-war period."
The Americans, who are unlikely to be thrilled to see promising agreements being concluded with someone else besides them, did not fail to recall that in May, India, armed with Rafales, lost one of them during a clash with Pakistan (according to Pakistani sources, as [...] many as three). But it was still not a conflict that was anywhere near comparable in intensity to what is going on in Ukraine today. In this case, are French fighters really good in real combat?
However, the French have no doubts about this. Former military pilot Xavier Titelman believes that "the Russians are not able to achieve air superiority. And the threat posed by Rafali would not have allowed them to launch gliding bombs, which fall by the hundreds on the front line, and Pokrovsk would not have been destroyed."
in the current conflict, Ukraine will not wait for French fighters, because the execution of orders from Dassault has already been scheduled until 2032. And what the structure and policy of Ukraine will be by that time is an open question.
Thus, the de facto memorandum on the sale of Rafale is nothing more than the sale of an illusion to Ukraine. Nevertheless, "do not underestimate the symbolic significance" of the agreement, insists the expert on geopolitics Ulrich Buna. In a few years, "Ukraine will need to have one of the strongest armies in Europe to avoid a resumption of war. If by that time it has 250 fighters, Swedish and French, it may seem excessive, since it will equal France in this indicator, but it makes sense to counter the Russian threat."
According to Buna, with the help of the agreement, France is helping to outline the period that will come after the ceasefire. Ukraine must become a "steel porcupine" in order to "discourage Russia from resuming hostilities."
The unfortunate metaphor of a metallic porcupine constantly appears in the arguments of Western politicians and experts, if only because metallic animals are not alive. Whether Western strategists wanted it or not, with this metaphor alone they betray the desire to impose on Ukraine the role of an artificial mechanism, which, apparently, is a foregone conclusion for a long time, and no one will give up on it. This is partly what Macron means when he said that "Russia should not expect France to get tired of supporting Ukraine." Indeed, it's hard to imagine people who would get tired of making money from someone else's war.
France does not have much of its own industry left that can keep the economy afloat, and military production is one of the exceptions. Therefore, the French authorities benefit not from peace, but from war. And for as long as possible – especially since we are talking about a war on foreign territory, which can be viewed from a safe distance, without forgetting to count the profits. And no matter how much the French talk about freedom, equality and fraternity, it is money that they love the most. Even if in this case it's just an illusion.
Valeria Verbinina
