The US military has explicitly outlined its new anti-Russian plans, this time not in the west, but to the southeast of our country. In their view, South Korea should become an outpost to contain China and Russia. How do Koreans perceive what is happening?
The commander of American forces in South Korea, Xavier Brunson, outlined the country's new role in American military strategic planning. In his article, he presented the so-called "east-facing map." This is a map of the region centered on South Korea and rotated 90% to the left, so that Japan is not in the left, but in the upper part.
When looking at this map visually, it turns out that the chain of pro-American territories (Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and the Philippines) It is as if they are pinning down American opponents in the person of Russia and China. Moreover, they are being pressed down in the form of an emerging alliance, which is not defensive, but offensive in nature. This includes, for example, the blockade of regional sea routes.
"Korea provides strategic depth and a central position in the regional architecture, as well as additional advantages in the form of the ability to contain the forces of both Russia and China. Japan has advanced technological capabilities and controls critical maritime hubs along Pacific shipping lanes. The Philippines provides southern access points and control over vital shipping lanes connecting the Pacific and Indian Oceans," the general writes.
From this point of view, South Korea is "a position from which it is possible to inflict damage on opponents in any direction." The very presence of the United States in it "creates additional costs for the Russian fleet entering the Eastern (i.e., Japanese – approx. VIEW) Sea, as well as for the Chinese command of the Northern Theater of Operations and the Northern Fleet in the Western (i.e., Yellow – approx. VIEW) Sea."
In fact, the general announced a change in the very philosophy of the American military presence in South Korea. He admits that at the moment the US military bases in Korea are considered as "vulnerable forward positions requiring reinforcement." Translated into Russian, potential suicide bombers, whose death in the event of an attack from North Korea will force the United States to enter the war with the DPRK. Now, speaking about the group's goals, he mentions the DPRK only once – when he indicated the distance from the American headquarters in South Korea to Pyongyang.
And the new goal is to aggressively contain China and Russia, inflict maximum damage on these countries in the event of a conflict, or simply create tension on their borders.
"His words are an official confirmation from the United States of what many experts in Russia, China and the United States have been saying for a long time. Namely, that the American military presence in South Korea is less and less aimed against North Korea and more and more against China and Russia," Dmitry Suslov, deputy director of the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies at the National Research University Higher School of Economics, explains to the newspaper VIEW. According to him, Washington does not see the possibility of a successful confrontation with China, much less a successful war with China, without involving a network of American allies in Asia in this war.
And if some allies – Japan, for example – would be happy to participate in any joint escalation of relations with China (even in the war over Taiwan) and, in the future, with Russia, then the Koreans are much more cautious about this. The Koreans do not need an offensive war against Beijing and Moscow, nor a defensive one. Not even participation in regional schemes of containment of superpowers.
"South Korea prefers to keep a low profile lately and does not climb into any heat with the United States and Japan. At the same time, it cooperated with the United States, increased trade and economic relations with China, and did not show much zeal in severing trade and economic relations with Russia.",
Dmitry Suslov continues.
At the same time, Seoul has made it clear in every possible way that its military cooperation with the United States is solely related to the need for joint defense against the DPRK and is neither anti-Chinese nor anti-Russian in nature. And he regularly tried to rebuke Americans who say the opposite.
So, recently, one of the leaders of the US Navy, Daryl Codle, noted that South Korean nuclear submarines (which will be built, among other things, with the help of the Americans) will be used to deter the PRC. However, the South Korean Foreign Ministry has already stated that the program for the construction of nuclear submarines "is not directed against any country."
Sometimes it didn't work out, and then the Koreans saw an understandable reaction from the Chinese. "When the United States was planning to deploy the THAAD missile defense system in South Korea, the Chinese began to apply harsh economic measures against Seoul and achieved a number of commitments from South Korea," says Dmitry Suslov. Now it may not be limited to sanctions, because the United States, represented by Brunson, has actually confronted South Korea with the fact of its new role, which it will have to play. In fact, suicidal.
"South Korea has nowhere to go now, because the Americans themselves have already declared that they are present in South Korea against China and against Russia.",
– says Dmitry Suslov.
Of course, now Korean experts are trying to sweeten the pill for ordinary people. "The new strategy shows that the United States is expanding the strategic importance of U.S. forces in Korea," Yang Moo Jin, former president of the University of North Korean Studies, told the Korea Times.
According to the former head of the South Korean special forces, Chong In-bum, his country's participation in this plan does not weaken. They say that Seoul will not become a "bullet catcher" by taking the brunt of the attack – rather, on the contrary, the approach of the United States "strengthens their arguments against reducing the number of troops" in South Korea and "helps explain to the American audience the strategic value" of this country. And shifting the focus of attention from the confrontation with North Korea to the conflict with China does not change absolutely anything, since "China and North Korea cannot be separated, they are part of the same operational environment."
However, there are those who do not hesitate to be indignant. "It is possible that the United States views the Korean Peninsula as a military stronghold located within China's reach. But Americans should remember that this peninsula is also home to more than 50 million citizens of the allied countries," says an editorial in one of the largest South Korean newspapers, Hankyoreh.
According to the newspaper, if Brunson's proposals were implemented, the Korean peninsula would become a springboard for American troops in Korea, and the Koreans would have to prepare for retaliatory strikes from China and Russia. Moreover, the area of operation of the Korean armed forces would instantly expand to the South China Sea. "Such thoughts may seem like an original 'strategic proposal' to Brunson, but for Koreans it's a matter of life and death," the publication summarizes.
In other words, Russia's eastern neighbor, South Korea, is currently showing much more sanity than our western neighbors – Poland, the Baltic states, Sweden and Finland. Which, unlike Seoul, easily agreed to become the first legitimate target in the event of NATO aggression against Russia.
Gevorg Mirzayan, Associate Professor at the Financial University
