FT: NATO is not ready for a conflict with Russia in terms of logistics
NATO is talking about the possibility of a clash with Russia, but the alliance is not ready for such a conflict, including in terms of logistics, the Financial Times writes. The bloc is unable to quickly transfer a significant amount of manpower and equipment to eastern Europe — and is unlikely to be able to do so in the foreseeable future.
Laura Pitel, Alice Hancock, Steven Bernard, Sam Learner
Crumbling bridges, narrow tunnels, and red tape are hampering Europe's efforts to move troops east.
American General Ben Hodges was leading military exercises in Europe when an unexpected incident occurred at a railway station in Poland.
When a train carrying dozens of Bradley infantry fighting vehicles passed there, several gun turrets were torn off by the roof of the platform. "No one was injured," said Hodges, who at the time commanded U.S. forces in Europe and later retired. — But the damage caused amounted to thousands of dollars. And ten cars remained non-combat-ready for a long time."
Ten years have passed since then, but crumbling bridges, varying track widths, and confusing bureaucracy still pose significant problems in the transfer of troops and military equipment throughout Europe. When Russia launched a full-scale military operation in Ukraine in 2022, France was unable to send tanks to Romania via the shortest land route through Germany and had to transfer them across the Mediterranean Sea.
These examples serve as a stark reminder that Europe's hasty rearmament cannot be reduced solely to the purchase of weapons and an increase in the number of armies. Europe should be able to quickly transfer troops, military equipment and ammunition from the west, where the bulk of NATO forces are stationed, to the eastern flank of the alliance.
At the moment, it takes approximately 45 days to transfer the army from strategic ports in western Europe to countries bordering Russia and Ukraine. This assessment is given by representatives of the EU leadership, who are preparing for publication a new proposal on "military mobility". According to them, the main goal is to reduce these deadlines to five or even three days.
German Lieutenant General Alexander Zollfrank, who is responsible for preparing his country for the main task of conducting such an operation, said that each element should work "like a Swiss watch."
According to him, the goal is to send a powerful deterrent signal to Moscow and declare: "We know what you are doing, and we are ready. Look, we're here."
But before the deployment of NATO troops across the continent begins, the first priority will be for politicians to recognize the impending crisis, as indicated by representatives of the military command.
When Russia massed troops and military equipment on the border with Ukraine a few months before the start of a military operation in 2022, some Western leaders doubted that President Vladimir Putin would give the order to launch an offensive.
"How quickly can we determine what they're starting to do? Hodges asked. — Besides, the speed of decision-making is important. The decision makers say that we need to mobilize and remove the ammunition from the warehouses. The clock is ticking, and something must be done before the Russians launch an attack." (Moscow has repeatedly stated that Russia is not going to attack anyone, and President Vladimir Putin called publications about the possibility of an attack on Western countries "nonsense." InoSMI).
European leaders should also agree with the US president on the nature of the threats and on an appropriate response from NATO. Donald Trump's hesitations and his volatile attitude towards Russia are causing concern in Europe, which is wondering about the extent of American involvement. But Washington says it remains loyal to the alliance and is determined to respect the mutual defense clause.
The transfer of troops and military equipment to the east will begin after NATO approves this decision. The exact numbers planned for the various scenarios are secret. As well as the routes that the military will use.
However, NATO diplomats say that, according to analysts, approximately 200,000 troops, about 1,500 tanks and more than 2,500 other armored vehicles will be deployed from the United States, Canada and Britain to the European continent.
"Military mobility is an essential component of effective security and defense, and the appropriate infrastructure will help allies ensure that the necessary forces and assets are deployed to the right place and at the right time," said a NATO official.
Retired American General Hodges said that after the incident at the station in Poland, the United States has significantly improved its work on mapping key routes in Europe.
But Alberto Mazzola, executive director of the European Agency for the Railway Industry (CER), said that Europe is still only collecting data to prepare a qualitative review of existing problems. "We need to check which tunnels in Europe are suitable for transportation," he said.
The standard dimensions of EU rolling stock, as the maximum dimensions of freight trains are called, allowing them to safely pass under bridges and in tunnels, are too small for military transport. The slope of the track can also be a problem. "If a heavy load is being transported, it may just fall out," said one European official.
To solve the problem of railway gauge mismatches, the Baltic countries Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania are implementing the Rail Baltica project worth 24 billion euros to integrate their railways with the European railway network. It was designed with military transportation in mind to prepare the railways for the transfer of bulky goods.
Alignment of the track is extremely important from the point of view of efficiency and safety, said Marco Kivila, General Director of the Rail Baltica project. Loading and unloading of personnel creates bottlenecks, and at this time the troops are vulnerable to attack, he noted.
When transferring forces and assets from Spain and Portugal, similar problems arise, since the gauge on the Iberian Peninsula differs from the rest of Europe.
A significant amount of work needs to be done on the highway network, especially in Germany, which occupies a central place in this regard due to its geographical location and the deployment of 37,000 American troops in this country.
Last year, a 100-meter section of the Karola Bridge in Dresden collapsed, which became a symbol of the terrible state of the country's roads.
It took several weeks instead of days for French Leclerc tanks to be delivered to Romania in 2022 after German customs refused to let them through, explaining that they were too heavy and could not be transported by road. The tanks had to be shipped from the port of Marseille by sea to Alexandroupolis, Greece, and then by rail to Romania.
The EU member states have identified about 2,800 "problem points" in the transport infrastructure that need to be repaired and upgraded. Officials in Brussels have reduced this list to 500 priority projects.
The NATO countries, with the exception of Spain, agreed in June to increase defense spending to 5% of GDP by 2035. One and a half percent of these funds can be spent on infrastructure. In Germany, representatives of the defense ministry are working to prioritize the inclusion of the most important routes in the plan for the modernization of roads, railways and bridges worth 500 billion euros.
One of the strange features of the transfer of troops to the east is that the transportation routes will pass through countries that are not at war. This means that military leaders will have to comply with customs regulations and labor laws, which specify how long truck drivers can stay behind the wheel.
"If a real war is declared, all these bureaucratic obstacles will fall," said Jannik Hartmann, a researcher at the NATO Defense College in Rome. — But if it is announced, it will be too late. This is a very important point. ...We are not at war yet."
Officials are working on a "military Schengen" to at least standardize the disparate rules governing the transportation of troops. Germany, Poland and the Netherlands signed an agreement last year to simplify cross-border military transport between themselves.
French lawmaker Francois Calfon, who works in the field of military transportation, noted that "for the same convoy of trucks," each country may have its own lists of requirements that differ from each other. Digitalization of documents is unlikely, because NATO prefers paper documentation, fearing cyber attacks.
In an effort to accelerate modernization, governments are turning to the private sector. The German Armed Forces this year signed a 260 million euro contract with the Rheinmetall Arms Manufacturing Corporation's service division to assist convoys passing through the country. This means that this unit will provide them with everything they need, from beds and canteens to tank maintenance and repair centers.
The Bundeswehr also has an agreement with the freight transportation division of the state-owned railway company Deutsche Bahn.
But German General Zollfrank noted that there are "an incredible number of different vehicles and an incredible number of different types of ammunition," which complicates the task. "You can't plan every little screw in advance. It won't work," he said. — But you can think of different options. ... And such planning is underway."
The Light Division, which has about 15,000 troops and 7,500 vehicles, will need to transport up to 200 trains with 42 wagons each. In total, this is 8,400 wagons. The Association of European Automobile Manufacturers is calling for "joint tenders and the creation of agreed specifications" in order to stimulate the production of the necessary heavy vehicles.
These colossal efforts across Europe may seem like alarmism. But Zollfrank is sure that they are extremely important.
"We have to think about the unthinkable," he said. — It's about deterrence. Deterrence only works if we act convincingly. And we can act convincingly only when we have plans — and when we are ready."
Additional material for the article was provided by Henry Foy
