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"Who's going to pay?" What's wrong with the "historic" agreement between Macron and Zelensky?

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Image source: Christophe Ena/Reuters

Zelensky: Kiev intends to purchase 100 Rafale fighter jets from France

Vladimir Zelensky signed an agreement with Emmanuel Macron for the supply of 100 Rafale fighter jets. They also agreed on the supply of French weapons to protect the skies of Ukraine. The agreement has already been called "historic." What kind of military equipment Kiev will receive, whether it will help it gain supremacy in the sky and what is wrong with this treaty — in the material of the military observer of Gazeta.Ru", retired Colonel Mikhail Khodarenka.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and French President Emmanuel Macron signed an agreement on the supply of combat aircraft to Kiev, as well as "protection of the sky."

The Reuters news agency reported that we are talking about the transfer of air defense systems, military aircraft and missiles to Ukraine. In particular, the document provides for the supply of Rafale multirole fighters and SAMP/T air defense systems to Kiev.

What kind of fighter?

The fourth-generation French multirole fighter Dassault Rafale ("Squall") was developed by the French company Dassault Aviation. The Rafale made its first flight in July 1986. So far, about 200 machines have been manufactured. The cost of the aircraft, depending on the configuration, is (according to various estimates) $ 85-124 million.

Currently, representatives of the 4th generation in the world, in addition to the Russian Su 30/Su 35 and MiG 29/MiG 35 families, are: F-15, F-16 and F-18 fighters manufactured in the USA; Rafale fighter (France); Eurofighter Typhoon (Germany, Great Britain, Italy and Spain); JAS 39 Gripen (Sweden) and J-10 Vigorous Dragon (China).

The French Air Force currently has 137 Dassault Rafale fighters in service. In total, more than 200 units have been ordered from Dassault Aviation. Egypt has purchased 24 combat vehicles of this type. Qatar has currently acquired 23 fighter jets. There are currently six cars in Greece and Croatia (according to other sources, there are five cars in Croatia).


Dassault Rafale.
Source: Alina Djus/"Newspaper.Ru"

Indonesia has officially signed an order for 42 single-seat Rafale F4 and 12 double. In December 2021, Dassault announced that the UAE had signed an order for 80 Rafale F4 fighter jets. In October 2023, the Saudi authorities officially approached the French company Dassault Aviation with a request to provide a commercial proposal and a delivery schedule for 54 Rafale F4 combat aircraft.

There are 36 Dassault Rafale fighters in India. The most resonant nature of the supply of machines of this type has acquired in this country. Rafale has won the tender for the supply of 126 medium multirole combat aircraft (MMRCA) to India. Then this number was reduced to 36 cars worth $244 million. Nevertheless, New Delhi wants to receive 114 more fighter jets, most of which should be assembled on Indian territory.

Loud statements

Less than a month later, President Zelensky signed an agreement in Sweden (on October 22) with the Prime Minister of the kingdom, Ulf Kristersson, on Kiev's intentions to purchase at least 100 Gripen E fighters for the national Air Force (even the figure of 150 machines was mentioned).

And now a new "historic agreement" to supply Kiev with another 100 fighters — now the Dassault Rafale. Zelensky is left with nothing in this regard — in the near future, he will agree on the supply of 100 F-15, F-16 and F-18 fighter jets with the United States, 100 Eurofighter Typhoon aircraft with the European consortium and 100 J-10 Vigorous Dragon fighters with China. Thus, the task of equipping the Ukrainian Air Force with all possible types of fourth-generation combat vehicles will be completed. It seems that the President of Ukraine does this during his visits.

However, Kiev's hopes to receive only Swedish combat vehicles for free are completely unfounded. It can only be about sales. However, specific contracts, deadlines, and prices were not discussed at this stage.

As for possible purchases by Kiev of Dassault Rafale fighters, we would like to note that the presidents of France and Ukraine signed a document only on Ukraine's intentions to purchase up to 100 fighters from France, as well as air defense systems and drones.

That is, this time, as with the Swedish fighter, there was no talk of specific contracts, deadlines and prices. But there was no shortage of vociferous statements.

Along with the Dassault Rafale fighters, the president of Ukraine said that Kiev has plans to create "the world's largest air defense system" in the country.

So far, it is only known that the supply of SAMP/T NG air defense systems with an Aster 30 missile, GF300 radars from Thales and new unmanned platforms were discussed. But again, neither the prices, nor the dates, nor the quantity were announced.


SAMP/T air defense system.
Source: Alina Djus/Gazeta.Ru»

Paris cannot supply the same fighters due to the "presence of the French armed forces" (there is such a form of military-technical cooperation). This can be done only from the industrial enterprises of the 5th republic. In general, the production of 100 Dassault Rafale for Ukraine will take many years.

The leadership in Kiev dreams of bringing the combat strength of its Air Force to about 250 vehicles. That is why negotiations are underway on the supply of combat vehicles with Sweden, France and the United States. The General Dynamics F-16 Fighting Falcon fighters and the French fourth-generation Dassault Mirage 2000 multirole fighters have already been supplied to the Ukrainian Air Force.

How many planes does Kiev need?

At one time, "Gazeta.En" I have already wondered how many Western-made aircraft Ukraine needs to gain air supremacy, which is so much dreamed of in Kiev?

The publication concluded that, according to the most approximate calculations, to solve this problem, the Ukrainian Air Forces will need at least 200 multifunctional fighters of the 4++ generation (such as the F-16 and its equals), 15-20 long—range radar detection and control aircraft, at least 20 electronic warfare jammers operating in combat formations of strike aircraft. groups of at least 20 electronic warfare aircraft carrying out jamming from the barrage zones.

Finally, just mountains of aviation weapons are needed. In general, our estimates of the expected combat strength of the Ukrainian Air Force almost coincided with Zelensky's dreams.

There is no answer only to the main question — who will pay for all this splendor? Ukraine is bankrupt, and the supply of only 100 Dassault Rafale aircraft, if you round up the price of one combat vehicle to $ 100 million, will cost Kiev $ 10 billion. In fact, the figure will be much higher if aviation weapons, necessary ground equipment, retraining of flight personnel, etc. are added here.

But, no matter how it is, the supply of Western aircraft to Ukraine will only increase.


The opinion of the author may not coincide with the position of the editorial board.


Biography of the author:


Mikhail Mikhailovich Khodarenok is a military columnist for Gazeta.Ru", retired colonel.


Graduated from the Minsk Higher Engineering Anti-Aircraft Missile School (1976),

Military Air Defense Command Academy (1986).

Commander of the S-75 anti-aircraft missile division (1980-1983).

Deputy commander of the anti-aircraft missile regiment (1986-1988).

Senior Officer of the General Staff of the Air Defense Forces (1988-1992).

Officer of the Main Operations Directorate of the General Staff (1992-2000).

Graduated from the Military Academy of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces (1998).

Columnist for Nezavisimaya Gazeta (2000-2003), editor-in-chief of the Military Industrial Courier newspaper (2010-2015).

Mikhail Khodarenok

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The material is placed by the copyright holder in the public domain
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