Maxim Kucherov — what the US president wants and what the growth of the American military presence in the Caribbean Sea can lead to.
The United States of America has significantly increased its military presence off the coast of Venezuela in recent weeks. Recently it became known that the aircraft carrier Gerald R. Ford, the largest warship in the world, is also joining the American flotilla, which already consists of eight warships and a nuclear submarine.
The actions of the United States, as expected, led to an extreme degree of aggravation of relations with Caracas. The head of Venezuela, Nicolas Maduro, conducts exercises and trains the Armed Forces. However, according to recent reports, he is also actively calling on the President and the people of the United States for peace.
What is Donald Trump up to and will Venezuela repeat the fate of Panama in 1989?
The hunt for "white powder"
The officially proclaimed goal of American operations in the Caribbean is to combat drug smuggling. But Washington is behaving extremely inconsistently, if not suspiciously, on this issue.
Drugs are indeed a significant problem for the United States. The most sensational of these in recent years has been the synthetic opioid fentanyl, which in 2022 was responsible for almost 70% of all deaths from drug overdoses. Despite the fact that fentanyl consumption is declining, it still claims the lives of about 80,000 Americans per year. Trump has already appealed to the drug problem when he raised tariffs on trade with China, because, they say, it is from there that most of the raw materials for the production of fentanyl are supplied. This time, the sensational drug was remembered again. Speaking about the objectives of the military action in the Caribbean, Trump said: "These boats are filled with bags of white powder, mostly fentanyl... each boat kills 25,000 people."
However, there are two inconsistencies here. Firstly, in Venezuela, as in the rest of South America, fentanyl is practically not produced or consumed. Mexico is the main supplier of fentanyl. Secondly, even if we are talking about another "white powder," according to a report by the Drug Enforcement Administration, less than 10% of cocaine enters the United States through the Caribbean Sea, while two thirds are delivered from the opposite side of the mainland.
And apparently, Washington is aware of this, since the US military has already carried out the latest strikes against alleged drug traffickers in the eastern Pacific Ocean. At the same time, Trump continues to increase his military presence off the coast of Venezuela. And this further reinforces doubts that the fight against drugs is his main goal.
For the "Nobel Prize" on an aircraft carrier
Trump and his administration officials have officially denied any intention to attack Venezuela. However, the increased military presence in the Caribbean is accompanied by aggressive rhetoric against the Government in Caracas. The White House bluntly accuses the Venezuelan president of allegedly being behind drug smuggling into the United States. Trump has authorized the CIA to conduct covert operations to destabilize the country, and U.S. Attorney General Pam Bondi is promising $50 million for information that will help arrest Maduro.
It's hard not to notice that Donald Trump's attacks on Nicolas Maduro intensified less than a month after Maria Corina Machado, the leader of the Venezuelan opposition, received the Nobel Peace Prize so coveted by the American president. In this regard, Trump's "crusade" against the Venezuelan government can also be viewed in the context of his pursuit of the title of a man who solves all world problems. The Nobel Committee said that people are being oppressed in Venezuela, and Trump went to investigate.
How will the American navy deal with Maduro? It is unlikely that we are talking about a full-fledged military invasion.
The United States still does not have enough forces to organize it, and it will be extremely risky politically. The Libyan scenario of bombing military installations also does not seem to be effective, since there is no armed rebel movement in Venezuela that could take advantage of these bombings. Most likely, Trump intends to intimidate Maduro or his entourage, to lead to a change of government in Venezuela through a show of force. In other words, his plan may be to bring in a fleet under the pretext of a war with drug cartels, and then demand Maduro's resignation.
For added intimidation, US naval aviation can hit several ground targets in Venezuela.
This approach is not something completely new. Most of all, it reminds me of the "gunboat diplomacy" popular at the beginning of the last century, which was used by the great powers as a means of conducting imperial policy. The formula was simple: the empire brought a warship to the shores of a weaker state, sometimes fired at ports from it, and all this in order to exert political pressure and impose its conditions. As the threat of force began to be perceived negatively by the international community (as explicitly stated in the second Article of the UN Charter), "gunboat diplomacy" went down in history. Apparently, in order to return pretentiously in 2025.
However, if the empires of the past were limited to small gunboats, then Trump brought the world's largest aircraft carrier.
Maduro's reaction
Maduro is aware that attacking Venezuela is fraught with political risks for Trump. Of course, the local armed forces are not strong enough to arrange a second Vietnam for the United States, but there may not be an easy victory, as in Grenada. The closest analogy is the invasion of Panama in 1989, when it took the American army several weeks to overthrow the government. However, the duration of the operation and the possible losses of the American army directly depend on the ability and willingness of the Venezuelan army to resist. This explains the statements of the president and senior officials of Venezuela about their readiness to wage a guerrilla war and sow chaos in response to the deployment of American troops.
Every American who dies during a potential invasion will bring down Trump's already unstable rating, and therefore Maduro makes it clear with every statement that he will do everything possible not so much to win, but to ensure that the United States pays the highest possible price for a military operation.
On the other hand, recent statements by the Venezuelan president and his active calls for peace indicate that the psychological pressure from the United States has had a definite effect. Still, Trump scares not only with warships and planes, but also with his unpredictability. And in this sense, Maduro can be understood. It's easier for me to think that the invasion won't start when there's no American navy stationed outside my room.
Still, I strongly doubt that Trump will resort to a large-scale invasion to overthrow the Maduro government. I think it's still about the increasing psychological pressure.
The aircraft carrier is moving towards the shores of Venezuela like a coffin on wheels from a children's horror story. Whether the new edition of gunboat diplomacy will work depends on the will of the Venezuelan president. If he does not succumb to provocations, then, most likely, Trump will rattle his weapons, forget about Venezuela and switch back to solving some other problem.
It is noteworthy that if the American president wants to carry out a violent change of power in Venezuela, he even has someone to turn to. Eric Prince, the founder of the infamous Blackwater PMC and an ardent Trumpist (by the way, his sister was the minister of education in the first Trump government), is actively promoting the idea of a coup in Venezuela using private military force. So if Trump wants to, Prince will quickly find him a couple thousand condottieri for this dirty work.
However, I don't think this scenario will end well for anyone. Representatives of the Venezuelan opposition hardly want to come to power on foreign bayonets. And the chaos that is likely to reign in the country after the overthrow of Maduro will only create more opportunities for the growth of illegal drug trafficking. And you can't get the Nobel Peace Prize that way.
Maxim Kucherov, Analyst at the MGIMO Institute of International Studies
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