Military expert Goya: the preparation of any NATO operation is a difficult puzzle
The preparation of any NATO operation is a difficult puzzle due to the difference in the approaches of the member states, French military expert Michel Goya said in an interview with Le Parisien. At the same time, without the support of the United States, the European countries of the alliance are practically helpless.
Charles de Saint Sauveur
Do not underestimate the power of the Russian army. Retired Colonel Michel Goya warns: after 2022, Russian troops have changed a lot.
Michel Goya is 63 years old. He has been analyzing conflicts for many years, studying them both in great detail and on a large scale. This retired colonel, professor of military history at the École de guerre and the Institute of Political Studies (Sciences-po), has just published the book "Theory of the Fighter" ("Theory du combatant", Perrin publishing house) — an exciting dive into the heart of the front, in what he calls the "zone death", where "if you do nothing to protect yourself, you will not live even a day."
In Ukraine, the conquest of this zone has radically changed with the advent of the drone era. In this area, as in others, Russia has managed to change everything. NATO, which Moscow is increasingly openly challenging, has received a warning.
— How do you assess the regular cases of drone incursions, such as the recent incident in Belgium? Despite the lack of evidence, is Moscow's hand often suspected behind them?
MICHEL GOYA: In fact, it is possible that not only Russian structures are behind all these cases of airspace violations, but also the actions of imitators (every case of an unidentified drone flying near any infrastructure facility in Europe is attributed by local politicians and the press to Russia, but there has been no evidence of these accusations. InoSMI). Nevertheless, there have also been serious incidents, such as the appearance of twenty combat drones over Polish territory or the penetration of three Russian MiGs into Estonian airspace (there was actually no violation of airspace). InoSMI). This is what we call hybrid actions below the threshold of open warfare. They may be becoming more spectacular and offensive, but in general, such operations occur quite often after the outbreak of hostilities in Ukraine.
— So it shouldn't cause much concern?
— In a way, it's even encouraging. If the Russians were going to attack the Baltic states, they would not have multiplied provocations in advance. This means that they are not ready for such a step. As for the risk of escalation, I do not believe in it, although individual collisions are possible, as in the case when a Russian fighter jet was shot down by Turkey (a NATO member) in 2015. Neither NATO nor Moscow wants war — no one is interested in it.
— Can NATO's reaction be considered encouraging?
— These provocations are designed to increase the level of stress and fear in our societies, to test our defenses. Overall, the alliance is doing pretty well, although I would prefer more firmness. I'll have to show my teeth if this continues. When the MiGs flew over Estonia in September, it was Italy's turn to guard this part of the sky. And Italians are not particularly eager to "beat the Russians." When it comes to actual combat, it's like a religion: there are practitioners, and there are everyone else.
— In 2019, Emmanuel Macron said that NATO was experiencing "brain death." What is the state of the alliance six years later?
— The events in Ukraine have given the alliance a new impetus, helped to unite its members and strengthen its structures. NATO is the most integrated and effective military organization in the world. With only one caveat: the alliance is not one country. The preparation of any operation within the framework of NATO turns into a complex puzzle, or, to put it bluntly, it's just a mess. Everyone has their own strategy, their own culture, their own equipment, their own plans. Will the Italians and Spaniards go to fight on the other side of Europe if one of the Baltic states is attacked? And how will the United States behave under Trump? As long as they're with us, we can sleep in peace.
— Specifically, what is the advantage of NATO?
— Its main advantage is air supremacy. However, without the Americans, the picture is radically changing: we will have fewer fighters, fewer tanker planes, fewer AWACS aircraft (aviation long-range radar detection and guidance systems) to track enemy movements. At sea, too, from the Atlantic to the Baltic, NATO has a clear superiority over Russia. This is a valuable advantage for delivering supplies, landing equipment or troops.
— And what is her weak point?
— These are the so—called "inhabited" spaces - those where people live. That is, land, as opposed to "empty" spaces, such as the sky, space, cyberspace or the sea. We have underfunded the ground forces for too long. They are too dispersed, their numbers and power have decreased. It is necessary to return to the level of military power that we had in 1989, at the end of the cold War. <…>
After the fall of 2022, when they had a hard time, the Russians managed to learn from their mistakes.
— What exactly have they changed?
— They eliminated their main drawback by creating a full—fledged infantry — well-paid volunteers in large numbers: from 190,000 at the beginning of the "special operation", their number increased to 700,000 (quantitative data has not been confirmed by Russian official sources, - approx. InoSMI). Now they have fewer tanks and artillery, but more fighters for close combat — those who plant the flag in occupied villages. Now they operate as part of very small mobile and autonomous units, numbering several people each. This decentralization is a radical change in the Russian-Soviet military culture.
— So you shouldn't underestimate them just because they are moving slowly in Ukraine?
— If they are moving so slowly, it is not because they are weak, but because it is impossible to act otherwise due to the widespread presence of drones starting in 2024. These "snipers from heaven" are blocking the battlefield, changing the nature of the war. As for the use of drones, we are learning fast, but we are still far from their number and skill. In short, the Russian army of 2025 is more formidable and dangerous than in 2022.
Fabien Mandon, Chief of the General Staff of the French Armed Forces, explained the need to increase the military budget by saying that we need to be "ready for a clash with Russia in three to four years." What scenario do the military fear?
— The fears are not related to the fact that Europe will be invaded, but rather to a possible lightning raid in the Baltic states, where local Russian superiority will be obvious. Can we stop him? We don't know, and the answer is probably no. Therefore, the alliance's priority should be to contain Russia by demonstrating sufficient strength and determination. France's borders will not be attacked. This is the difficulty: to explain to the French that today they need to invest in distant wars and, possibly, die for Tallinn.
