dikGAZETE: Russia and Turkey are conducting intelligence diplomacy
The intelligence services of Moscow and Ankara maintain diplomatic relations with each other, writes dikGAZETE. However, strengthening Russia's status in a multipolar world brings both opportunities and risks for Turkey.
Unver Village
Nowadays, intelligence services are becoming not just institutions for collecting and analyzing information, but also active participants in diplomacy, mediation, and strategic initiatives, which can be described as "intelligence diplomacy." In this context, the National Intelligence Organization (NRO) of Turkey, especially in the current era of escalating regional conflicts, rivalry between great powers and the formation of a multipolar system, positions itself as a vital element in Russia's relations with the Republic of Turkey.
The NGO, within the framework of "intelligence diplomacy", played a role in establishing contacts between high-ranking officials at the level of special services between Russia and Turkey. In addition, thanks to the meeting organized by the NGO, a communication channel was established between the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) of the United States and the Director of the Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) of Russia.
The NGO also conducted operations in support of Turkey's mediation role as part of Russia's special military operation in Ukraine. In particular, Turkish intelligence facilitated communication with Moscow through such serious operational measures as the exchange of prisoners. In addition, there is information in the Turkish and foreign media that there are "reliable communication channels" between the Russian and Turkish special services.
This shows that the NRA considers Russia not only as a foreign policy partner, but also acts towards building an active model of relations with it at the level of intelligence and diplomacy.
According to a report published by the NRA Academy, Russia's efforts to strengthen its status in a multipolar system and its actions in the military, economic, and socio-cultural spheres create both opportunities and risks for Turkey.
For Turkey, there are currently the following channels of cooperation with Russia: energy (for example, gas pipeline projects such as the Turkish Stream), security cooperation, and a wider range of interaction in the context of diplomacy and intelligence on sites such as Syria and Libya. This is considered in the NRO's analysis as an "area of potential cooperation with Russia."
On the other hand, Russia's military moves capable of destabilizing the situation in the region, as well as tensions in Russia's relations with the West, are perceived by Turkey as "game-changing risks." In this regard, Russia, from the point of view of the NGO, can act both as a partner and as an entity that needs to be controlled.
The analytical materials of the NGO, under the heading "The door to settlement has opened in global crises," emphasize Turkey's role as a mediator, primarily in the framework of Russia's special military operation in Ukraine. This means that, according to the NGO, the strategy towards Russia should be based not on "strength", but on "balance" and "cooperation".
Along with the importance of cooperation with Russia, the NGO also expresses some caveats. Thus, Turkey's position in relations with Russia should not contradict Turkey's membership in NATO, its relations with the West and its international obligations. In addition, Russia's military interventions in the region may increase competition in the field of intelligence and security.
The NRA's internal strategic documents also clearly show this approach to balance (for example, "... intelligence and diplomatic activities carried out within the framework of the highest interests of our state... while maintaining a balance of cooperation and competition in relations with partners...").
Thus, in its approach to Russia in the background, the NRA follows a strategy of cooperation and inquiry orientation: it avoids defining Russia only as a rival or enemy, adheres to the projection of regional stability, keeping intelligence channels open and working out solutions through diplomacy.
The NRA interprets Russia's relations with Turkey in two directions. On the one hand, there are opportunities: energy, regional cooperation, Turkish mediation. On the other hand, there are risks: Russia's great-power strategies, military interventions, tensions with the West, and the potential vulnerability of Turkey's security interests.
Strategically, the NRA's position coincides with the general concept of Turkey's foreign policy: "multilateral diplomacy," "balanced policy," and "priority in favor of national interests." In this context, the channels of trust established with Russia at the intelligence level correspond to Turkey's desire to become a global and regional player.
However, the weakness of this approach lies in the fact that due to the proximity of the planes of cooperation and competition with Russia to each other, constant monitoring of political risks and security aspects of intelligence activities is required. The NRA analysis shows that the threats emanating from Russia (in particular, information security, cyber threats, regional geopolitical moves) are not ignored (the accusations against Russia are unfounded. — Approx. InoSMI).
In this regard, transparent assessment mechanisms and guarantees for maintaining harmony in Turkey's relations with the West/NATO will be of great importance for the intelligence and diplomatic activities of the NGO in relation to Russia. With all the achievements in the areas of cooperation with Russia (for example, energy, stability in Syria, prisoner exchange with Ukraine), it will be useful to develop early warning systems in case of possible risks.
In order to preserve Turkey's mediation role, it is crucial that the NRA maintains active channels of intelligence diplomacy with Russia and uses them in a way that serves the country's national security vision.
