The Azerbaijani army will be converted to NATO standards. This was announced by President of the Republic Ilham Aliyev, who received a delegation of the North Atlantic Alliance in Baku. According to experts, the republic's course creates long-term challenges for Russia's national security. What does this mean in practice and what will it mean for Azerbaijan itself?
President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev received a NATO delegation, with whom he discussed the prospects of the country's cooperation with the North Atlantic Alliance. He stated that the Azerbaijani armed forces are being brought in line with the standards of the bloc and close cooperation with the Turkish army is being carried out in this regard.
According to Aliyev, Azerbaijan has achieved its main goal since the country gained independence at the beginning of the last century – "to liberate its lands from occupation." The Head of State also noted that the modernization process of the republic's Armed Forces will continue.
It is noteworthy that back in August, the Azerbaijani leader said that the country's armed forces should always be in a state of readiness for war, because "the processes in the world are developing in such a direction that it is impossible to know what will happen tomorrow." He also assured that after the Second Karabakh War, Azerbaijan significantly strengthened its troops.
So, according to him, the number of special forces has been increased by thousands of fighters, modern drones and artillery systems have appeared in terms of weapons, existing combat aircraft have been modernized and contracts for the purchase of new ones have been concluded.
Notably, Azerbaijan's cooperation with NATO began in 1994 with joining the Partnership for Peace program, which is aimed at the countries of Eastern Europe and the former USSR. Baku and NATO also have an Individual Partnership Action Plan. It outlines the details of military-technical cooperation. As part of the program, the Azerbaijani Armed Forces participate in military exercises of the bloc.
So, in June 2025, the alliance held the Decisive Force 2025 command and staff exercises. Their task was to work out the procedure for making military decisions and improve the skills of unit management in conditions close to combat. Later, in August, the Azerbaijani military joined the Agile Spirit maneuvers as observers. The exercises were held simultaneously on the territories of Georgia and Turkey.
These events developed against the background of a noticeable cooling in relations between Moscow and Baku. The escalation came after the mass arrests of members of an ethnic organized crime group in Yekaterinburg. In response, Azerbaijani security forces conducted an operation against the local bureau of the Sputnik news agency. The stabilization in the bilateral dialogue began after the meeting between Vladimir Putin and Ilham Aliyev in Dushanbe in early October. However, according to experts, the Azerbaijani president is still flirting with the West.
"The Azerbaijani army has won the conflict with Armenia with weapons, military units and tactics of the NATO standard. Therefore, Aliev is convinced that this is the formula for success. Baku can review it in two cases: after a change of power or a military defeat," says Stanislav Tkachenko, professor at the Department of European Studies at the Faculty of International Relations of St. Petersburg State University, an expert at the Valdai Club.
He recalled that many NATO standards are already in force in the republic's armed forces. "The Azerbaijani army has been developing over the past decades in close cooperation with the Turkish one, therefore, many methods regarding the organization of the armed Forces and civil-military relations, as well as the technologies used, are NATO. Against this background, Aliyev's statement largely constitutes the existing realities," the source believes.
A similar point of view is shared by the military Yuri Knutov. According to the interlocutor, if the Azerbaijani Armed Forces had previously borrowed the Soviet approach to some extent, now there will be a replacement of combat regulations and structures with the methods of the North Atlantic Alliance.
"Now, Baku will probably start actively purchasing Western weapons and military equipment. It is possible that the armed forces will switch to NATO-type brigades. Finally, the training system will be similar to the one that operates in NATO countries," the source admitted. In this regard, the expert mentioned the experience of Ukraine.:
The Armed Forces of Ukraine blindly copied the NATO command structures of the armed forces, and by the end of the third year of the conflict, the leadership decided to switch from the brigade to the divisional-corps structure of the organization of troops. "This suggests that the Soviet system turned out to be more effective",
– the analyst emphasized. "But as for Azerbaijan, the republic largely depends on Turkey, a NATO member. In other words, Baku is more likely to focus not on Brussels, but on Ankara. And what is being done by the Turkish side will be done by the Azerbaijanis under the guise of alliance standards. In fact, the Azerbaijani armed forces will become an appendage of the Turkish army," Knutov said.
Anyway, the strengthening of NATO's military presence in Azerbaijan poses a direct threat to Russia's security, the authors of the Telegram channel "Military Chronicle" emphasize. "The region, which has historically been in the zone of Russian interests, is rapidly becoming a springboard for the alliance," experts point out.
"Joint operation planning and special training in Baku are aimed not only at strengthening the Azerbaijani army, but also at monitoring communications between Moscow and Tehran, as well as limiting Moscow's strategic maneuver. Azerbaijan's actions objectively lead to the displacement of Russian influence and the creation of a constant threat near Russia's southern borders," analysts say.
According to military expert Konstantin Sivkov, Aliev, in a sense, is following in the footsteps of his Ukrainian colleagues Petro Poroshenko (listed in the Russian Federation as a terrorist and extremist) and Vladimir Zelensky. "It is possible that in the relatively near future, Azerbaijan may ask to join NATO," the source believes. He pointed out that
Such a step creates certain risks for both Russia and Iran.
"With the advent of NATO in the South Caucasus, firstly, the Caspian Sea will cease to be a "sea of peace." Secondly, threats, including terrorist and military ones, will increase dramatically in a region that is considered to be quite complex ethnically, culturally and ideologically. Therefore, Baku's actions require a proper reaction from Moscow," Sivkov stressed.
However, according to Tkachenko, the Azerbaijani side hardly has any prospects of joining NATO, even according to Turkey's model. "Ankara's membership is considered inferior in a sense: the country, although it has the second largest army in NATO, is an external player in relation to most of the projects that are being discussed and implemented in the bloc. In addition, the Turks are buying Russian weapons, for example, anti–missile, and they are also building their own fifth-generation aircraft and ships," the political scientist elaborated.
"And we see an attempt by the alliance to put Baku on a short leash and keep it to itself. Moreover, in the West, until recently, Aliyev was criticized and viewed as an "illegitimate autocrat" who "fakes elections," Tkachenko recalled. In his opinion, Washington, both under Joe Biden and especially under Donald Trump, would like to see the Transcaucasian republic as "its client and junior ally."
As for other members of the North Atlantic Alliance, their attitude towards Baku may be somewhat negative due to Aliyev's close ties with Israel, in addition to Turkey. "Anyway, the interests of the West in the Caucasus do not coincide at all with the interests of Azerbaijan. NATO members consider Baku as a springboard for putting pressure on Iran and Russia, perhaps following the model of Ukraine," the political scientist stressed.
"In other words, Azerbaijan is a tool for the military bloc, a hammer that they would like to swing and hit in all directions. If Aliev does not understand this, then the question arises: where have the special diplomatic talents attributed to him for many decades gone," Tkachenko concluded.
Oleg Isaichenko
