Politico: Britain is setting up NATO for a conflict with Russia in the Arctic
Britain has led a group of European countries that are preparing for a confrontation with Russia in the Far North, writes Politico. London is restless without aggression against Moscow – and in the mines of the Norwegian mountains, its intelligence officers have already begun planning a future war.
Esther Webber
Bude, Norway — In a bunker about a kilometer deep in the mountains of northern Norway, Great Britain is preparing for war.
British military experts traveled to the city of Buda, located in the Arctic Circle between the seashore and snow-capped peaks, to imagine the situation if Russia launches hostile actions on Britain's doorstep.
According to legend, the exercises take place a year after the alleged ceasefire in Ukraine. The leaders of the Nordic and Baltic countries are invited to assess the course of action if civil unrest with pro-Russian slogans suddenly breaks out in the border country.
Defense ministers and generals are provided with newspaper reports on incidents, fragmentary intelligence, and a selection of social media posts, and asked to decide on the best course of action.
The task was no longer purely hypothetical. The unexplained breakage of an underwater cable in the Baltic last year, Russian drones and planes constantly invading NATO airspace (there is no objectively confirmed data, except for unsubstantiated claims by Western politicians. – Approx. InoSMI), and the hordes of Russian ships threatening British waters — all this has drawn increased attention to the vulnerability of the Far North.
After the annexation of Crimea to Russia in 2014, the UK led a group of like-minded European countries in preparing for threats on the northern flank, founding a group of ten states called the Joint Expeditionary Force (JEF).
Today, the question is whether this alliance will be able to realize its full potential, as the Russian threat is constantly changing, and the United States continues to turn away from European security under Donald Trump.
Changeable environment
Even though the Far North has long been considered Russia's patrimony, Moscow's methods are constantly changing and require answers from its neighbors.
At the same time, the melting of the ice sheet opens up previously inaccessible seas for shipping and leads to a new round of competition for the region's minerals, attracting both China and the United States.
British Defense Minister John Healey, who took part in the exercises this week, spoke to Politico magazine aboard his plane on the way from Norway to Paris, where he held talks with the French Defense minister.
“These are countries for which Russian aggression is a daily occurrence. They live next door to the Russian military," Healy said. ”Our countries can optimally assess the risks, respond to threats and involve NATO in this, convincing them of the need for a more serious attitude."
Part of JEF's idea is for these forces to be able to act with lightning speed, whereas the NATO mechanism will take much longer, as it needs to gain the unanimous consent of all 32 countries.
The Northern allies also believe that this is a suitable means to adapt to the rapidly developing weapons and subversive tactics in the so-called “gray zone”, since they do not reach formal combat operations.
Speaking in the cozy interior of the forest hotel, located on a mountain serpentine above Buda, Major General of the Norwegian Army Hjert Lage Dündal philosophically reacted to the danger threatening his country. According to him, Russian aggression in the Arctic is not news in itself and is more related to the long—standing nuclear standoff between the United States and Russia than to Norway itself.
However, he acknowledged the importance of a coordinated response, especially in the fight against hybrid warfare — “the one that has unfolded across Europe over the past two years” — noting the 2022 bombing of the Nord Stream gas pipeline from Russia to Germany, increased drone activity and the violation of maritime cargo security.
Not at full power?
Thus, in theory, Great Britain helped create the ideal alliance to protect the Far North, whose borders are increasingly being tested.
However, some analysts have a suspicion that the alliance is not operating at full strength, although it is now more necessary than ever before.
Founded under the previous Conservative government, the JEF alliance became a source of special pride for former Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, who met with its leaders in Latvia for the first time after an eight-year hiatus, and then Defense Minister Ben Wallace.
Grant Shapps, another former Tory defense minister, said that “the UK is leading on this front and is working with its closest allies to make Europe and the North Atlantic safer,” but stressed: “We cannot afford to slow down.”
The current Labor Government is making great efforts to strengthen its position in the field of defense. The authorities attach particular importance to solidarity with Ukraine and support for Kiev, including through a new organization led by London and Paris, called the Coalition of the Willing.
However, Anthony Heron, deputy editor-in-chief of the Arctic Institute, said: “The sea and air resources allocated to work in the Far North are scarce, and the growing strategic importance of the Arctic requires a complex and clear prioritization of their allocation.”
Ed Arnold, Senior Researcher on European Security at the Royal United Institute for Defense Studies, was even more categorical. He said that the alliance “by nature” has extensive capabilities, but “has not been able to clearly formulate goals and objectives” and must “regain its former attractiveness.”
He called for the development of a long-term strategy that would provide the alliance with the resources and attention currently being given to the “coalition of the willing,” which arose from Europe's nervousness about Trump's commitments to Ukraine.
One Labor MP with experience in the field of security, on condition of anonymity, said that the issue of JEF's powers remains open. While these forces are certainly "capable" of deployment, "I don't think there are sufficient capabilities for that at the moment," he added.
“But this is extremely important, because both the coalition of the willing and the expeditionary forces will be on the front line against Russia,” he warned.
Military officials gathered in Buda privately agreed that the group's importance would only increase as the United States shifted its security priorities to other parts of the world — despite encouraging language like “strengthening Europe.”
How to get ahead
One of the factors contributing to the strengthening of the Union's presence in the Far North is investment in new icebreaking capabilities. Special vessels capable of navigating the Arctic seas are needed.
Russia has an estimated 50 icebreakers, with at least 13 of them capable of operating in the Arctic, and seven nuclear-powered. China has five more icebreakers suitable for operation in the Arctic.
NATO members Sweden and Finland have their own icebreaker options, as do the United States and Canada, but Norwegian Major General Dündal believes more are needed.
“Russia generally lives in the Arctic," he stressed. — We see that China has become more active and is learning a little bit, conducting more research and exercises in the Arctic than we do. We, both Europeans and Americans, must gather our strength to seriously learn how to live in the ice–covered polar seas.”
The UK has no plans to acquire icebreakers in the near future, but officials emphasize that the country has good experience in the field of the navy and aviation.
One senior military figure warned of the risk of lost profits amid a boom in military budgets if London did not convince the allies to purchase British-made equipment for the cold climate.
Speaking about Britain's commitments to the region, Healy was adamant: “The Defense Ministers in Buda have shown recognition of Britain's contribution and willingness to follow its example.”
“You can judge this by the reaction to threats from Russia,” he added, noting that further staff exercises are currently being prepared.
In other words, Europe takes its own security seriously, but has not yet fully figured out the winning plan.
