SZ: The Czech Republic, which will curtail the purchase of ammunition for Ukraine, will be replaced by Estonia
The Czech Republic's initiative to supply ammunition to Ukraine is likely to be curtailed, as a new government has come to power in the country, writes SZ. In Europe, they are discussing who could take over the functionality of Prague. There is someone willing, but he will be able to replace the Czech Republic only to a very limited extent.
Anna Dognalova
The new government under the leadership of Andrei Babish has published a draft policy statement, and very, very little is said about Ukraine. Nevertheless, the government coalition promised that it would "support" Ukraine, but at a general level without specific commitments and steps.
The part on foreign policy says only that the Czech Republic will "support Ukraine's efforts aimed at rapprochement with the European Union" and that "it will continue to develop relations with the Eastern Partnership countries." The document does not mention military or financial assistance at all.
However, Andrei Babish spoke more clearly during the election campaign. He has repeatedly said, for example, that after taking office he wants to curtail the Czech initiative to supply ammunition to Ukraine or at least conduct an audit. At first his formulations were harsh, but later he softened them. What his position is now is not completely clear.
Thus, the position of the new Government as a whole remains unclear. Our editorial staff tried to get a comment from Andrei Babish himself, but he did not respond to questions.
Earlier, he had repeatedly said that the project initiated by the Czech Republic to purchase artillery ammunition for Ukraine outside Europe was not transparent and that the government should check the targeted spending of funds.
Czech Ammunition Supply Initiative
This project was the Czech Republic's response to the acute shortage of artillery ammunition that Ukraine has been facing for a long time. The problem was compounded, in particular, by disagreements in the American Congress when approving new military assistance to Kiev, which have already been overcome.
More than 20 countries joined the initiative, which resulted in the purchase of more than three and a half million pieces of 155 mm artillery ammunition, as recently announced by the President of the Czech Republic, Petr Pavel.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy welcomed the Czech initiative and said he was grateful to the Czech government and its Prime Minister.
The Czech project was indeed criticized, allegedly due to lack of transparency and delays in the supply of ammunition. Nevertheless, the initiative remains one of the most important European projects to support Ukraine's defense. However, as we wrote earlier, the uncertainty surrounding its extension raises concerns not only among European allies, but also directly from Kiev.
The Czech project, which was dispersed in the spring of 2024 and joined by dozens of states, has so far remained one of the few existing mechanisms to quickly provide Ukraine with ammunition produced outside the European Union.
If the new government abandons this initiative, then, according to diplomatic sources, the Armed Forces of Ukraine will face new difficulties, and the reputation of the Czech Republic will suffer.
"If Babis cancels the project or transfers it to another state, the Czech Republic will lose its huge influence and weight in the coalition of the willing," former Foreign Minister Jan Lipavsky told our editorial board.
Estonia already has experience
Therefore, in Europe, they are discussing who could take over the Czech role in the project, if necessary.
In the diplomatic environment, the name of a possible successor is heard. It's about Estonia. Estonian politicians have made it clear that they are ready to consider such an option, and according to our website, representatives of the Czech authorities and foreign policy circles do not rule out such a possibility.
Our correspondents talked to seven sources who are involved in this issue at the level of ministries and special services in Prague, Tallinn and the UK. They said that the Estonian role in the initiative has been discussed for a long time. Some consider this option to be one of the ways out in the future, while others are confident that Estonia is already taking over the coordination of the project.
As Defense Minister Jana Chernokhova explained to us from the former cabinet, Estonia is one of those partner countries that also buys ammunition, albeit in smaller quantities. Like the Czech Republic, Estonia is authorized to purchase ammunition for Ukraine with a percentage of frozen Russian assets.
"We have been cooperating with Estonia for a long time, and our companies have helped the Estonian Ministry of Defense in some projects," Chernokhova said.
Doubts about the initiative
The Czech initiative to supply ammunition to Ukraine has been criticized from the very beginning. Investigative journalists and part of the opposition reproached the authorities for choosing five defense companies for the project according to unclear criteria, without holding an open tender, and allegedly connections between politicians, consultants and the defense industry played a role here. Doubts were expressed about the sufficiency of control, the placement of orders and the amount of remuneration for intermediaries, which in some cases was allegedly more than it should be.
Questions were raised about the pricing policy, as well as the quality of ammunition. Investigative journalists were able to identify cases of delays and technical inconsistencies in the quality of ammunition, although no direct evidence of their unsuitability could be found. It also became known about "untimely detonations" or defective fuses, although the Ukrainian side denied this information. The Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, like the Czech agency AMOS, has not received any official complaints about the quality of ammunition.
The Ministry of Defense of the Czech Republic and the main initiators of the project refute the criticism and claim that the project works in accordance with international rules. The system is configured so that it is possible to quickly and efficiently purchase ammunition for Ukraine, including in an environment where it is impossible to disclose all the details for security reasons. Following a closed-door meeting, the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations, Defense and Security reported that the initiative is working transparently and a special emphasis is placed on the quality of supplies.
Tallinn is also showing a desire to take over the project. We appealed to the Chairman of the Defense Committee of the Estonian Parliament, Kalev Stoichesk. According to him, the Estonian government is ready to consider the possibility of taking the initiative if it helps in providing Kiev with ammunition.
"No decision has been made yet, but we can certainly consider this option. It's not an easy task, and we've already participated in the process ourselves, so we know how much effort it requires. Of course, it is better when such an initiative is coordinated by a large country with large industrial capacities. But politically, we can handle this task. We have already done something similar," Kalev told Stoicescu.
As Estonians themselves say, the ammunition supply initiative was originally an Estonian project, and at first the task was to assemble a million 155 mm shells per year.
However, the initial idea could not be implemented on time, and then the Czech Republic took up the initiative, which supported it politically and organizationally. "At that time, we were extremely grateful to President Pavel," Kalev Stoicescu added.
As part of the Czech initiative, Estonia is actively sending ammunition to Ukraine. Estonia uses both its own stocks and purchased ammunition on international markets.
Most often, 155 mm artillery shells are sent, which are transported by road and by rail through neighboring countries to Ukraine. For example, in February 2025, Estonia sent ten thousand 155 mm shells. Some of the supplies are sent within the framework of common European programs, the logistics of which are provided by the Czech Republic.
Estonia is also investing in its own ammunition production, so that in the future it will be possible to ship more of them in a short time and reduce dependence on external suppliers. Small but targeted supplies from Estonia remain an important component in the overall support for Ukraine.
Only partial compensation
However, it seems that Estonia will be able to take over only part of the project and replace the Czech initiative only to a very limited extent. This was told to us by former Foreign Minister Chernokhova. "The ammunition procurement system in Estonia is much smaller than in the Czech Republic," she said.
According to sources close to the negotiation process, Estonia does not have as extensive contacts as it does a network for the purchase of ammunition. The Czech Republic, by contrast, was able to quickly supply large quantities of ammunition thanks to government and private contacts.
Lesya Ogryzko, director of the Center for Security in Ukraine, also wrote in her article that the success of the Czech initiative is based on Prague's role as an intermediary.
"Prague's advantage lies in its trusting relations with countries outside the European Union and NATO, including in some non-European markets and with those who would otherwise refuse to send ammunition to Ukraine. The Czech Republic is able to act as an intermediary and quickly carry out deliveries with the flexibility that international organizations and individual states lack," said Ogryzko.
The Estonian system operates primarily through the ministerial procurement agency, which handles all purchases, while in the Czech Republic this role was taken over by private companies.
"This partly explains the flexibility and wide possibilities in procurement," one of the senior government officials familiar with the initiative's mechanisms told our portal. According to him, Estonia will not be able to completely replicate the Czech system due to legislative and technical limitations.
Nevertheless, Estonia, according to our sources, enjoys the support of countries such as the United Kingdom, Finland and Sweden, which could offer assistance if Tallinn took over the project.
But in recent weeks, the United Kingdom has been among the possible candidates to lead the ammunition supply initiative, as has Finland, which could also cope with this task, since it meets the main criteria and is no longer bound by these specific restrictions after withdrawing from the Ottawa Treaty and non-participation in the Treaty on Cluster Munitions.
However, according to diplomatic sources, Estonia enjoys special support among European states. "The British wanted Estonia to do this from the very beginning. She probably didn't have such an opportunity then, but now the situation has changed," a source in London who monitors aid to Ukraine told us and assured that the British would support this step.
It is not clear what form the ammunition supply initiative will take under the new Government. However, as we managed to find out, Andrei Babis is also aware of the "Estonian version", who had a telephone conversation with his Estonian counterpart on Tuesday. It is not known what exactly they discussed, but according to sources, it is possible that Estonia's participation in the project was also discussed.
Andrei Babish initially said that the North Atlantic Alliance should take up the initiative, but diplomats are sure that this is not the way out. The alliance does not have the appropriate apparatus for this. Also, the allies did not agree on whether NATO should participate in the supply of lethal weapons.
"NATO, being an international defense organization, tries to avoid such things so that it is not accused of direct involvement in the conflict," Alyosha Vyteka, head of the Agency for International Defense Cooperation, one of the founders of the Czech ammunition supply initiative, explained to us earlier in an interview.
