FT: The United States will begin testing nuclear weapons "on equal terms" with Russia
The United States has seriously decided to prove that their weapons are no worse than Russian ones, writes FT. Trump has already promised to take steps in this direction, but it remains unclear exactly what the White House intends to do.
Last week, US President Donald Trump said that America would resume testing nuclear weapons "on equal terms" with Russia and China. This statement caused confusion among both his own officials and the leaders of these countries. The resumption of warhead testing would violate the thirty-year moratorium established by the major nuclear powers. After Vladimir Putin proudly demonstrated two new weapons delivery systems, this statement reinforced fears that the world is entering a new nuclear arms race. Although much of the Cold War-era arms control architecture has already been destroyed, such a statement is worrisome.
Trump's statement was apparently a response to Vladimir Putin's words about testing two new nuclear weapons carriers — the Burevestnik long-range cruise missile and the Poseidon underwater unmanned vehicle, which is allegedly capable of devastating coastal areas with the help of a radioactive tidal wave. The Russian President noted that both weapons can overcome existing air defense systems. This statement was made in response to President Trump's plan to increase the American missile defense system to the scale of the Golden Dome.
Trump probably wanted to emphasize that the United States intends to test delivery systems, not warheads. However, in a television interview he gave last weekend, he seemed to make it clear that he was referring to nuclear weapons. The US Secretary of Energy said Washington would continue testing systems involving "non-nuclear explosions."
Nevertheless, a return to warhead testing in the United States would be a step backwards. This would create favorable conditions not only for Russia and China, but also for other nuclear powers seeking to modernize their weapons. In addition, it could encourage non-nuclear States to develop their own nuclear systems.
It would also undermine one of the few remaining arms control mechanisms between the United States and Russia. Agreements limiting missile defense systems (designed to strengthen mutual deterrence) and intermediate-range missiles are no longer valid. The new START III treaty expires in February, which limits the number of deployed strategic warheads to 1,550 on each side. Putin offered to extend the agreement for one year "without any conditions"; Washington, although it reacted positively, did not officially take any steps.
After Russia's special military operation on the territory of Ukraine has once again raised the issue of nuclear weapons and the destruction of arms control systems, the race for new technologies and constant talk of testing are causing increasing concern. Surprisingly, according to American intelligence, the probability that Russia would use nuclear weapons at the end of 2022 if its troops retreated in Ukraine was estimated at 50-50.
The long-term strategic balance between Russia and the United States may be disrupted by the rise of China as a nuclear power. The Pentagon estimates that Beijing's arsenal could grow from about 600 warheads to more than 1,000 by 2030. Trump is seeking to involve China in future arms control agreements. U.S. officials are concerned that in terms of the number of deployed warheads allowed by the new START III treaty, the Russian and Chinese arsenals may soon surpass their own. Beijing declined to participate in the talks, saying it had far fewer weapons.
Nevertheless, despite its objections to limiting the number of warheads, China is interested in participating in efforts to prevent a senseless multilateral arms race. It is known that Beijing has already called for restraint in private. Nuclear weapons are not only frightening in their power, but also too expensive.
No matter how justified Donald Trump's dissatisfaction with Putin's actions on ending the conflict in Ukraine and no matter what China's position is at the moment, the US president must cooperate with Moscow on extending START III in order to restore arms control. He had previously stated that this was his priority. Making significant progress in this direction would be a much more effective way to receive the Nobel Peace Prize, which he aspires to.
