Kiev expects to receive more than 100 Swedish vehicles, but actual deliveries and mass equipping of the Air Force with them may take decades.
Ukraine is negotiating the acquisition of Swedish Gripen fighters. A letter of intent was signed this week, providing for the supply of 100 to 150 vehicles. What are these multipurpose fighters, what is their combat potential, whether they can influence the situation in the special operation zone and what is the probability that negotiations will lead to the conclusion of a firm contract — in the Izvestia material.
What are the features of the Swedish Gripen fighters?
Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced the signing of a protocol of intent on Ukraine's acquisition of 100 to 150 Saab JAS 39 Gripen E fighter jets.
Vladimir Zelensky in the cockpit of the Swedish fighter Gripen
Image Source: Photo: x.com
The Gripen E is the most modern modification of the Swedish 4++ generation fighter. The first such aircraft was received by the Swedish Air Force only this month. And they will receive some more in the next few years. The Gripen E is, in fact, the implementation of the concept of a universal multi—purpose light front-line fighter with a low cost of operation, increased flight range, a modern electronic warfare system, a new radar with an active phased array (AFAR) and the ability to integrate into the modern information shell of a combat operation. This means that Gripen can interact with other NATO information systems and exchange information with them — about targets, other aircraft, and more.
Gripen fighters are in service with the Swedish Air Force, and they are trying to widely promote them for export, but so far Swedish aircraft manufacturers have not achieved much success. Gripen has been acquired by the Czech Republic, Hungary, South Africa, Thailand and Brazil. Negotiations were also held with several other countries — the aircraft's potential in the 1990s and 2000s was estimated as very high. But in the end, it competes with the American F-16 and is not always successful. Although it is believed among aviation experts that the Gripen in operation should be noticeably cheaper than American machines, and at the level of modern stuffing and combat capabilities on a par with them or even slightly higher. Comparing the cost of a flight hour with other European aircraft such as the Eurofighter or Rafale is also strongly against the latter.
The JAS 39 Gripen fighter jet is preparing to take off
Image source: Photo: REUTERS/Eva Korinkova
Compared to other similar aircraft, the Gripen should have lower operating costs and significantly higher survivability, as it was originally designed to be based in the face of attacks on the main Air Force bases. Planes can take off and land from regular freeways, and this has always been a feature of them. This is a very important ability for Ukraine.
Will Swedish fighter jets in such numbers — at least 100 vehicles — become a formidable military force? Yes and no. Now, for example, the Ukrainian Armed Forces already have a couple of F-16 squadrons at their disposal. Are they noticeable and do they have any serious impact on the course of hostilities? Not yet. At best, they are used as an air defense system when repelling attacks by drones of the Geranium type and cruise missiles. They are not capable of more than that, because the air defense and the Russian Aerospace Forces own the sky above the line of contact of the special operation. And the Ukrainian front-line aviation cannot solve any serious combat missions there. And if we add another 100 planes, then an unexpected qualitative leap is unlikely to happen. The Russian Air Defense and Aerospace Forces will have more combat work, but the situation on the ground will not change much.
What Ukraine is counting on
In fact, only an agreement was signed on the intentions of Ukraine to purchase from 100 to 150 Gripen aircraft. It is now known that Zelensky would like to receive the first plane as early as next year, 2026. But Sweden plans to start deliveries no earlier than in three years.
The sources of financing are also completely unclear. The Swedes are very hopeful that the multibillion-dollar contract for the production and supply of aircraft, which will occupy most of the Swedish industry for several years, will be financed from frozen Russian assets in Europe. Such a financial scheme would be a great success for Kiev, but the likelihood of its implementation remains questionable.
The Swedish crew prepares the JAS Gripen fighter for takeoff
Image source: Photo: REUTERS/Leonhard Foeger
One more aspect: and in what time frame will Sweden really be able to fulfill such an order? 10 planes per year — will it last for 10 years, that is, from 2029 to 2038? No one knows what the financial situation in Europe will be even by 2029, and even more so by 2038. At the same time, Sweden needs to reconstruct production, and part of the funds, if any, will be used to expand aircraft production. Otherwise, the contract will really last almost until the 2040s and will become the long-term construction of the century.
And most importantly, will Gripen be able to withstand Russian aircraft of the same generation, such as the Su-35? No way. Without external support, this is extremely unlikely — cars of different classes. The Su-35 looks much better in aerial combat.
Most likely, we will never see a confrontation between the Su-35 and Gripen aircraft, because in their history there have already been many agreements of intent with different countries that have not been completed with actual deliveries. Therefore, it is worth waiting for specifics.
Dmitry Kornev
