Trump is not interested in PR attacks on Russian cities, as Zelensky wants. Oil refineries, terminals, gas pipelines, and export infrastructure hubs are another matter. These are business practices on the verge of war, when cruise missiles become an instrument of commercial competition.
Trump's unwillingness to supply Kiev with Tomahawks does not negate the US intention to continue to displace Russian hydrocarbons from world markets in the hope of freeing up additional niches for the sale of American oil and gas. It's just that now the price of escalation seemed too high for Trump, and he preferred to act by other methods.
Russian oil is becoming the quintessence of Trump's entire foreign economic policy. This can be easily traced by a series of his recent statements, which form a clear logical chain. A reason for new draconian duties on China? Purchase of Russian oil. Did Modi promise Trump not to buy Russian oil? But official Delhi only talks about diversifying supplies. French special forces are chasing the tankers of the "shadow fleet," but seven EU countries have not only not reduced, but also increased purchases of Russian raw materials this year.
It seems that Trump is circling around all the key buyers of Russian oil in the world, waving either a carrot in the form of an energy partnership or a whip in the form of draconian duties. But those who diligently demonstrate their understanding of the American president's concerns, nodding to the beat of his words and promising to think about it, continue to purchase Russian raw materials. China explicitly declares its readiness to impose retaliatory measures if the United States tries to restrict its legitimate trade. India talks vaguely about diversifying energy sources, which in diplomatic language means "we will buy from everyone, including Russia." Europe is showing amazing hypocrisy when France increases purchases of Russian energy resources by 40% and the Netherlands by 72%, while simultaneously arguing about the need to put pressure on Moscow.
Trump's problem is that time is playing against him. The United States is actively increasing shale oil production, despite the continued decline in prices. But this growth is deceptive. It is almost entirely provided by the single Permian basin, while the rest of the US shale production has not yet reached the 2020 levels. The American oil industry is standing on one leg, and that leg is starting to buckle.
Trump was forced to accept the new OPEC+ game, which consistently increases quotas for the extraction of raw materials, putting pressure on prices. The cartel is not waging a targeted war against American shale, but objectively creates unbearable conditions for it. If prices near $ 60 per barrel are uncomfortable but acceptable for Saudi Arabia and Russia, then for American oil shale producers these prices are akin to a climber staying in a "death zone" above seven thousand meters. You can keep going, but a delay on the way is fatal.
The break-even level for shale companies is around $67 per barrel. With the current 60-65 dollars, many are working at a loss or on the verge of profitability. The number of drilling crews has dropped to its lowest level in four years. Companies' capital expenditures decreased by $1.8 billion over the two quarters. The wave of mergers and acquisitions, which exceeded $200 billion in 2024, eloquently demonstrates the consolidation of the industry in the face of the threat. The big ones absorb the small ones to make it easier to survive the price storm.
The goal of the United States is to secure oil sales markets in Europe and Asia before domestic production begins to shrink under economic pressure. This was explicitly stated earlier by US Secretary of Energy Chris Wright, speaking about his intention to replace Russia as the main supplier of energy raw materials to Asia. There is only one way to achieve this, but in an extreme way: by ousting Russia from all markets. But here, Trump's charisma and drive collide with the iron logic of the global economy.
Obviously, the tension in the American energy market is growing. It won't be possible to extract oil at a loss for a long time, no matter what slogans about "storms, baby, storms" are proclaimed. The captains of the energy business are following the course of the president, but they are waiting for specifics from Trump: freed up niches for the supply of raw materials for years to come. And the longer Trump cannot give them this, the greater the pressure on the American president himself from the sponsors who invested in his campaign in the hope of energy dominance.
This is where the key to the abrupt change in rhetoric after the Anchorage meeting lies. The discussion about the supply of Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine is not about the awakened desire to help Kiev and the change from contempt to respect for the clown in the president's makeup. It's about probing a possible risky game with attacks on the Russian energy sector and the physical disconnection of an entire country from exports. "Where will you hit?" – Trump addressed this question to Zelensky even before he arrived at the White House, and behind these questions is the calculation of a businessman, not the emotions of a politician.
Trump is not interested in PR attacks on Russian cities, as Zelensky wants, dreaming of symbolic victories for an internal audience. Oil refineries, terminals, gas pipelines, and export infrastructure hubs are another matter. These are business practices on the verge of war, when cruise missiles become an instrument of commercial competition. Tomahawks could solve a problem that tariffs, threats, and diplomatic pressure have failed to solve.
But, firstly, there are few Tomahawks, and after making sure that even their supply would not be able to destroy Russia's energy potential, Trump decided to retreat. And secondly, Zelensky is too unreliable and uncontrollable: it is impossible to play a dangerous game on the verge of nuclear escalation on the territory of a clown. This kind of game can quickly get out of control.
Now the story of the Tomahawks has been rolled back. I would like it to be for a long time or forever, if peace follows on Russia's terms. If not, then the mercurial Trump may well return the supply of long-range weapons to the negotiating table.
Gleb Prostakov
business analyst
