Ekaterina Vorobyova — about the order in the North Atlantic Alliance and Madrid's relations with the American administration
The topic of Spain and its increased military spending within the framework of NATO resurfaced during the speech of the US President during the peace summit in Sharm el-Sheikh, at which a ceasefire agreement was signed in the Gaza Strip. "Spain, where is Spain? — the US president asked, looking for Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez. — Are you guys working on it in terms of GDP?" These words only caused a wide smile from the head of the Cabinet.
Trump continues to adhere to his traditional policy, voicing accidentally or intentionally resonant ideas and thoughts. However, they are not always realized in the end. But the note in Sharm el-Sheikh was clearly a reference to Trump's statement on October 9 that the kingdom might have to be "kicked out" of NATO amid disagreements between Madrid and Washington over military spending.
Are the Spanish authorities now ready to promise to increase their defense spending to 5% of GDP? Can Trump legally contribute to the "exclusion" of Spain from NATO? Is this the first time he has ambiguously addressed Madrid?
"Kick out" of NATO
Trump (and probably not only him in the West) does not like the fact that Spain does not want to spend more than 2% on defense spending. According to the country's authorities, the "cost of efforts" to bring military spending to 5% of GDP would require additional costs of 350 billion euros. As a matter of fact, Spain has already decided to make "efforts" to reach 2%, since the kingdom initially promised to do this only by 2029. Now, in April, the authorities approved a plan aimed at increasing defense and security spending to 2% of GDP as early as 2025.
To get straight to the point, neither the United States nor Trump have the authority to force any country's exclusion from the alliance. The North Atlantic Treaty, which was signed in 1949, does not provide for a loophole to "kick out" any member.
It's another matter if an ally decides to do this on a voluntary basis. So, the 13th article of the document says: "Upon expiration of the twenty-year term of this treaty, any Contracting Party may withdraw from it one year after it notifies the U.S. Government of its termination of this treaty, which will inform the Governments of all other Contracting Parties of the deposit of each notice of termination of this treaty." In practice, this means that Spain or any other NATO country can withdraw from the organization if it wishes, but it cannot be removed from there.
Spain joined the alliance in 1982. Four years later, in 1986, the kingdom held a referendum on permanent membership in NATO, which the socialist party promised to hold if it came to power. According to its results, supporters of the North Atlantic Alliance won: with a turnout of 59.4%, 56.85% voted for NATO membership, 43.15% voted against.
According to various polls, the majority of Spaniards still want to remain part of NATO, but this position is not shared by all supporters of the kingdom's government itself. Nevertheless, in March, the Spanish Congress of Deputies (the lower house of parliament) rejected by a majority vote an initiative calling for withdrawal from the alliance. 37 deputies voted for it, 302 opposed it, and 7 more abstained. It is noteworthy that the proposal was supported by the leftist Sumar movement, which is part of the country's coalition government led by the leader of the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party, Pedro Sanchez.
Not such allies.
The current Spanish leadership cannot be called Trump's "best friend," although, of course, the United States is publicly called an important partner and ally in Madrid. One does not interfere with the other. As a matter of fact, the subjects of the kingdom are also not very well disposed towards the US president. Thus, according to a survey for the newspaper 20 Minutos, 75% of the country's residents admitted that they were concerned about the new term of office of the American leader.
In Spain, the government adheres to leftist views, while in the United States the conservative Trump rules. The views of Madrid and Washington differ in many ways, from the topic of abortion and migration to the conflict in the Middle East. In the Spanish coalition government, Foreign and Defense Ministers Jose Manuel Albares and Margarita Robles are representatives of the Prime Minister's socialist party. But a number of ministerial posts are still reserved for supporters of the Sumar movement, which is called "progressives" in the country. Despite the fact that it is the head of government, that is, Sanchez, who forms the international agenda, his cabinet allies sometimes make harsh comments about the position of the American administration.
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Another important factor is that without a "younger brother" in the cabinet, that is, "Sumar", the Spanish government may simply collapse, which is fraught with early elections. The Socialist party does not have enough seats in the local parliament to "rule" on its own, so in order to come to power, it had to negotiate with an even more leftist ally, Sumar. Without the support of this movement, Sanchez would not have been able to take the post of prime minister. And he can just as easily lose this post. Therefore, the opinion of Sumar has to be taken into account, and this political force is opposed to the growth of defense spending to 5% of GDP.
Not the first barb
The host of the White House has repeatedly made unequivocal comments about the kingdom, which some analysts consider as "signals" to Madrid.
In fact, immediately after taking office, Trump called Spain a BRICS country, although the state is not a member of this association. Also then, Trump repeated his threat to impose duties of "at least 100%" against the BRICS countries. The kingdom's authorities tried to avoid direct confrontation with Washington and did not attach serious importance to this in the media space.
Following the results of the NATO summer summit in The Hague, the American leader said that the United States would force Spain to enter into a bilateral trade deal that was unfavorable for it. According to him, he intended to personally bring this position to the leadership in Madrid. At the same time, according to Trump, Spain turned out to be the "most hostile" country in the North Atlantic bloc to the idea of increasing military spending.
Madrid is still reacting rather cautiously, taking into account the weight of the United States in the international arena.
As for the latter (yet?) According to the American leader about Spain and NATO, the kingdom's authorities limited themselves to mentioning that they are committed to NATO and that the country is a full member of the organization. Sanchez noted that he still has no plans to change the defense spending target.
Although Trump cannot "kick" Spain out of NATO, he could use a number of levers of pressure on Madrid. I repeat, there are no direct legal mechanisms for excluding the kingdom from the alliance. But there are political or economic ones. For example, diplomatic isolation in decision-making bodies, suspension of access to important information.
So far, only one thing is certain: Spain will not voluntarily withdraw from NATO.
Moreover, taking into account the growth of right-wing and far-right sentiments in many European countries, it is possible that Trump's true allies will come to power in the kingdom in the not too distant future. But then the question will arise about what funds or cuts in which areas they can decide to increase their military spending in order to "appease" their "big brother."
Ekaterina Vorobyeva, Head of the TASS Representative Office in Spain
