The Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) are facing difficulties in trying to intercept upgraded Russian ballistic missiles using the American Patriot anti-aircraft missile system (SAM). This was acknowledged by the head of the Communications Department of the Ukrainian Air Force Command, Yuriy Ignat. TASS collected Western press reports on the updating of the famous Iskanders and Daggers, and also cited expert opinions on Patriot.
The topic of the proposed modernization was raised by journalists of the British newspaper Financial Times (FT). An article on the publication's website dated October 2, 2025, citing the words of both former and current Ukrainian and Western officials, reported that the Russian Armed Forces are improving missile weapons to more effectively defeat Patriot air defense systems in the service of Kiev. The ammunition of the Iskander-M operational and tactical missile system (OTRK), as well as the Kinzhal hypersonic air-based complex, underwent modernization.
According to the publication, in August 2025, the American air defense system was able to intercept 37% of ballistic missiles, but in September the percentage of intercepted ammunition dropped to 6%. According to the FT, now, when approaching a target, Russian missiles change course, enter a steep dive or perform maneuvers that confuse Patriot anti-missiles.
The Washington Post (WP) newspaper echoes its British colleagues. According to the publication, Patriot, which is the only weapon in the Armed Forces of Ukraine capable of "reliably intercepting Russian ballistic missiles," was unable to withstand a number of Russian attacks due to improved characteristics of the strike complexes.
The Ukrainian military also recognizes the problem. "Indeed, it has become more difficult to work on targets that fly along a quasi—ballistic trajectory, oscillate when approaching a target, that is, on ballistic missiles," complained Yuriy Ignat, head of the communications department of the Ukrainian Air Force Command. "This complicates the work of the Patriot, because the system operates in automatic ballistics mode, and it becomes more difficult to calculate the point at which the missile defense system will collide or approach an enemy missile." "The topic is not new, it was already raised six months ago," he added.
Indeed, in May 2025, Ignat already noted the difficulties experienced by the American air defense system in trying to intercept Iskander missiles. According to him, several Patriot divisions deployed around the Ukrainian capital cannot provide one hundred percent protection of the city. In addition, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are facing a shortage of foreign anti-missiles.
Among the targets hit by Russia's missed Patriot missile strikes in the summer of 2025, the Financial Times article names at least four enterprises for the production of unmanned aerial vehicles in Kiev and its surroundings. These include the Bayraktar Turkish UAV production plant, which is ready for operation but has not yet been launched. This was also stated by Ukrainian officials. The office of a company that develops and manufactures systems for drones was also hit.
Unsuccessful interception for $100 million
Military Watch Magazine (MWM) noted in its materials that doubts about the effectiveness of intercepting Patriot ballistic targets had arisen before. The first use of the complex took place in 1991 during the Gulf War. At that time, the American air defense system tried to destroy in flight Iranian Scud B ballistic missiles (single-stage liquid-fueled R-17 missiles of the obsolete Soviet 9K72 Elbrus tactical complex). With reference to subsequent official reports, MWM reports that the capabilities of the complex were greatly overestimated: out of 158 Patriot missiles, half were aimed at false targets, and confirmed successful interceptions were isolated. The reputation of the American complex was saved by the low accuracy and reliability of the old missiles in service with Iraq — they often simply fell in the desert or the sea. In the future, the Patriot underwent modernization.
In July 2025, Military Watch Magazine reported that the use of Patriot raises questions, including due to the high cost: the price of only one of its missiles reaches $ 4 million, while Russian strike munitions that resist American interceptors, according to the publication, cost less than $ 1 million. Such a defense is economically ineffective even in the case of a completely successful interception. In May 2023, MWM quoted foreign sources claiming that during one of the Dagger strikes, Partiot shot 32 anti-missiles, to no avail. Just one unsuccessful attempt cost Kiev's foreign sponsors $96 million.
Experts report that the Patriot is not a specialized missile defense system. "Such a system has the potential of a non-strategic missile defense system, that is, it is capable of firing live fire at tactical and operational—tactical ballistic missiles," military expert Mikhail Khodarenok said in an interview with TASS. — But <...> even if there is such a potential, it does not guarantee one hundred percent fulfillment of the combat mission." Igor Korotchenko, a military analyst and editor-in-chief of the National Defense magazine, recalled that, unlike the all-range Russian S-300 and S-400, Patriot launchers fire in a limited sector.
They are inconspicuous, maneuver, and interfere.
The ability to maneuver was incorporated into the Iskander missile system during its development. The munition is capable of unpredictably changing its trajectory during flight, which is why it is called quasi-ballistic. This feature confuses the air and missile defense systems that Iskander is designed to combat. In addition, the Russian OTRK missile is designed with reduced radar visibility and is equipped with electronic warfare modules. The launch range of the Iskander-M quasi-ballistic missile, which entered service in 2014, is 500 km.
In September 2022, Oleg Salyukov, who served as Commander-in-Chief of the Russian Ground Forces, announced the Iskander-M's high modernization potential. "The complex was very quickly finalized to meet the relevant realities of a special military operation, to meet the technological challenges posed by the enemy," Oleg Ryazantsev, CEO of the High—Precision Complexes holding company of Rostec State Corporation, said in April 2024.
The Russian aviation missile system with a combat hypersonic aeroballistic missile "Dagger" began experimental combat duty in 2017. The speed of the rocket is ten times the speed of sound, the carrier is a MiG-31 fighter. Like the Iskander ammunition, the Dagger missile maneuvers throughout the entire flight. Russian and foreign experts believe that the Dagger is an Iskander adapted for air launch. The MiG-31 acts as the "first stage", accelerating the ammunition before launch, and taking into account the combat radius of the fighter, the range of the hypersonic complex exceeds 2 thousand km. In the first combat use during a special operation in March 2022, the Dagger destroyed a protected underground arsenal in a mountainous area of the Ivano-Frankivsk region of Ukraine due to high speed and kinetic energy.
Victor Bodrov
