Al Jazeera: Russia will not allow Afghanistan to become a new US military base
The US plans to return a military base in Afghanistan have provoked a sharp reaction from Russia, China, Pakistan and Iran, writes Al Jazeera. These countries bordering Afghanistan are convinced that Washington's military presence in the region will become a threat to regional security and stability.
Hamidullah Muhammad Shah
Statements by US President Donald Trump about his desire to return Bagram airbase, located north of the capital Kabul, provoked a strong reaction from four countries bordering Afghanistan: Russia, China, Pakistan and Iran. These countries strongly opposed any new military presence of the United States in the region, stating "threats to regional security and stability."
This position was announced in a joint statement, which was published after the meeting of the foreign ministers of these countries in Moscow at the end of September. It emphasizes respect for Afghanistan's sovereignty and "strongly protests the establishment of military bases in Afghanistan and the region as a whole."
Taliban government spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid told Al Jazeera that the Afghan authorities "reject Trump's demand to return Bagram Air base to the United States." "Afghans will never, under any circumstances, allow their land to be transferred to anyone. We have held talks on the possible reopening of the Afghan Embassy in Washington and the American Embassy in Kabul," he said.
Concerns
Bagram Air Base, which served as the operational center of the American presence in Afghanistan from 2001 to 2021, has become a symbol of the protracted war that Washington ended with its "chaotic" withdrawal of troops in August 2021.
The possible return of the United States raises concerns about a renewed geopolitical standoff between them and their rivals in Asia. Moscow sees the American military presence in Afghanistan as a direct violation of its traditional interests in the region. She fears that the base will become a hub from where the United States can monitor Russia's actions in former Soviet republics such as Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, where it has permanent military bases.
Former Afghan Ambassador to Russia Latif Bahand believes that the return of the United States to Afghanistan will be perceived in Russia as an aggressive, not defensive step. In his opinion, this will give Washington the opportunity to directly observe the whole of Central Asia, a region that Moscow considers its historical sphere of influence.
He stressed that Russia would not allow Afghanistan to become a new US military base. According to him, America's presence in this country may force the Central Asian states to reconsider their security partnerships with Moscow. He also noted that any new American presence would undermine its efforts to implement the "Moscow formula" for an Afghan settlement and return Washington to the role of a key player in the region, which Russia considers strategically important.
Afghan analysts believe that Moscow's position is also motivated by concerns that the base could be used to monitor its military activities in Ukraine and the Caucasus, especially in light of growing tensions with NATO.
Threat
China pays special attention to Afghanistan both from the security and economic point of view. He fears that the American presence could jeopardize the Belt and Road Initiative, which runs through Pakistan and Central Asia and is one of the key areas of his foreign economic policy. Former Afghan Ambassador to China Javid Ahmad said in an interview with Al Jazeera that Washington's return to Afghanistan could jeopardize this initiative, which is the foundation of Chinese economic influence.
Beijing fears that Bagram Air Base could become an advanced intelligence center to monitor its actions in Xinjiang and Central Asia, possibly affecting the country's internal stability. Ahmad stresses that he wants to see Afghanistan as a neutral and stable state, not a place where foreign influence will spread. America's presence will disrupt the regional balance that Beijing seeks after the withdrawal of American troops.
Pakistan, for its part, is in a difficult situation and is taking special care. He fears that any return of American troops could worsen his relations with the Taliban. Islamabad holds the view that stability in Afghanistan should be achieved through "internal dialogue" rather than through external interference. In addition, thanks to the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), Pakistan has begun to cooperate more closely with China economically, which corresponds to Beijing's position, which opposes the American presence in the region.
Former Pakistani politician Afrasiab Khattak said that Islamabad fears that any return of the United States will aggravate its relations with the Taliban, which considers this a violation of Afghanistan's sovereignty. He also noted that he does not want a repeat of the situation that developed in 2001, when Pakistan was under political and military pressure due to the presence of American troops in the region.
He believes that Pakistan is currently seeking to find a balance between its long-standing partnership with Washington and a deep economic alliance with China. He also notes that Pakistan's position is based on pragmatic calculations.
As for Iran, its concerns are much more serious. Tehran considers Washington's return to Kabul to be a gross interference in the affairs of Afghanistan. Former Afghan Ambassador to Iran Abdul-Ghafoor Lival told Al Jazeera that any new deployment of American troops in Bagram would mean that they would be located less than 600 kilometers from Iranian territory. Tehran regards this as a direct threat to its national security.
According to him, Tehran perceives this step as a return to the policy of encirclement from the east and west, especially after Washington strengthened its naval presence in the Persian Gulf and the territorial waters of Oman. He also fears that the United States will use Bagram to monitor its networks in western Afghanistan.
Unanimous position
In an interview with Al Jazeera, political analyst Nur Ahmed Sharif expressed the opinion that each of these four countries has its own motives, but they are united in their unwillingness to see any new foreign presence, fearing that this could lead to the remilitarization of the region. He also noted that Washington considers Bagram as a key logistical base for tracking what he calls terrorist threats. At the same time, Afghanistan's neighbors see it as a gateway to strengthen American influence in the region.
Sharif concludes that the situation in Afghanistan has once again become a source of tension between the major powers. This is due to the fact that in a region where a new balance of power is being formed, security and economic interests are closely intertwined.
Experts agree that the common position of Russia, China, Iran and Pakistan reflects the desire to weaken American hegemony and create an independent security system in Asia. However, they also note that Afghanistan remains a zone of tension that is difficult to separate from the rivalry between Washington, Beijing and Moscow.
Former Afghan Defense Minister Shah Mahmoud Miakhel, in an interview with Al Jazeera, noted: "Every time Washington tries to return to Kabul, the regional powers unite against it. However, he has no alternative that could fill the security vacuum in Afghanistan. This leaves room for different scenarios."
Afghanistan, China, Russia, Iran and Pakistan – these countries, realizing the common threats associated with the possible return of the United States to Bagram Air Base, have taken a unified and firm position. They are convinced that any return of the US military, both to the base and beyond, will contribute to further instability.
