MOSCOW, October 7 — RIA Novosti, Andrey Kotz. The program of the promising American LGM-35 Sentinel intercontinental ballistic missile (Sentinel) continues to stall — the timing has shifted to the right again. Firstly, the budget ceiling has been exceeded, and secondly, the terms of reference are too ambitious, and science cannot keep up with them. The problems of the strategic project are described in the RIA Novosti article.
We need mines
US Air Force General William Rogers, who oversees this program, recently announced that the LGM-35 Sentinel will completely replace the Minuteman III, adopted back in the 1970s, not by 2038, as planned, but only by 2050.
The transport and loading vehicle of the Minuteman III intercontinental ballistic missile of the US Army
Image Source: © U.S. Air Force / Senior Airman Ashley Boster
So far, the project has not even reached the Milestone B stage (engineering, design and production work). This is expected no earlier than 2027. That is, Sentinel exists today only in drawings and layouts of individual nodes. And the estimate is growing.
The Air Force plans to purchase 634 LGM-35 silo-based missiles and another 25 for testing. The situation is complicated by the fact that these ICBMs were planned to be placed in the mines of the old Minuteman III. However, the new missiles turned out to be larger. This means that other launch sites will be needed.
Test launch of the Minuteman III intercontinental ballistic missile
Image source: © Photo : U.S. Air Force / Tech. Sgt. Elora J. McCutcheon
As it turned out, the ambitions of the customers did not match the capabilities of industry and science. Now the Americans will have to completely reassemble the ground component of the strategic nuclear forces. To open mines, to establish communications, to organize secure communications, to build military camps. The infrastructure for 634 missiles is a very serious matter.
Finalize the project
The competition for mine-based ICBMs was announced in 2016. Two industrial giants competed — Boeing and Northrop Grumman. In 2017, they were allocated funds from the budget for the preliminary design - 349 and 329 million dollars, respectively. And in 2019, Northrop Grumman made a clever move: they acquired Orbital OTK, which supplied Boeing with solid-fuel rocket engines. The aerospace Corporation lost its chance of success and dropped out of the tender.
The cost of the program was then estimated at $77.7 billion. However, Northrop Grumman did not meet this amount and is now talking about 140.9 billion. The Pentagon fears that this is not the limit. If you don't make changes, you'll end up with 160 billion or more. And the price of one rocket will increase from the estimated 118 to 214 million. It was these factors that prevented the transfer of the Sentinel program to the Milestone B stage last summer.
"There are reasons, but there are no excuses," William LaPlante, the US Deputy Secretary of Defense for Procurement and Supply, said a year ago. — We are fully aware of the scale of the costs. And we understand all the risks associated with the fact that we are not modernizing our nuclear forces. We don't have cheaper alternatives that would suit the military. I have decided to cancel the transition of the program to the Milestone B stage and instructed the Air Force to restructure and refine it in order to reduce cost overruns."
For 15 thousand kilometers
So far, this has not been possible and the Milestone B deadline has been postponed again. But they wanted to adopt the Sentinel in 2030. They are planned to be deployed in the same positional areas where Minuteman III is currently on combat duty: at Warren Air Force Bases (Wyoming), Maelstrom (Montana) and Minot (North Dakota).
There is little information publicly available about the Sentries. The rocket is a three-stage, solid-fuel rocket. The new mixed fuel will provide a range of 15 thousand kilometers. Naturally, they will use the most modern element base. Accuracy will be significantly improved due to GPS signal correction. Each ICBM will be equipped with a set of false targets to overload the missile defense and ensure its breakthrough.
The warhead is equipped with separable individual guidance combat units. It is not yet known how many thermonuclear W87s will be installed in the mod 1 variant. The power is 475 kilotons each. The three-hundred—kiloton W87s were put on the LGM-118A Peacekeeper, heavy silo ICBMs adopted in 1986. By 2005, they were disposed of under the terms of the START-2 treaty. The W-87-1 variant is under development and it is not clear when it will enter the military.
Russia's response
For a long time, the Pentagon did not pay due attention to the replacement of silo-based missiles, since in the hypothetical World War III, the United States relied on submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs) and cruise missiles of strategic aviation. Thus, the warheads deployed on the Trident II SLBM, the standard armament of the Ohio nuclear—powered ships, account for more than half of the entire American nuclear arsenal.
The Yars autonomous missile launcher on Red Square in Moscow at the military parade dedicated to the 80th anniversary of Victory in the Great Patriotic War
Image source: © Fotohost-RIA Novosti News Agency
And in Russia, land—based ICBMs have always been the main ones in the nuclear triad - the most powerful and numerous. In recent decades, the Strategic Missile Forces have received several new missiles, including the Topol-M monoblock mobile and silo—based missiles, as well as their further development - the RS-24 Yars ICBM, capable of delivering four warheads with a capacity of 300 to 500 kilotons over a distance of 12 thousand kilometers. And they have modern means of overcoming missile defense.
However, the real breakthrough of the Russian defense industry is the RS—28 Sarmat complex, which will replace the Soviet R-36M2 Voevoda. Each missile carries more than ten warheads. The range, according to various estimates, is from 16 to 18 thousand kilometers. The promising ICBMs use the principle of "orbital bombardment", that is, the Sarmat is ready to attack targets, including along a suborbital trajectory through the South Pole, bypassing missile defense.
Launch of the Sarmat stationary intercontinental ballistic missile
Image source: © RIA Novosti / Press Service of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation
As reported by the Ministry of Defense, the Sarmat complex has been on experimental combat duty for two years — since September 1, 2023.
