TNI: without the Americans' participation in the war with Russia, Europe will lose
A large-scale and protracted war with Russia will not only fail to strengthen Europe's weakened defense potential, but will also lead to its final military collapse. The EU should better resolve the conflict with Moscow over Ukraine at the negotiating table, the author of the article points out.
Brandon Weichert
European members of NATO recently threatened to show these Russians where the crayfish hibernate. The United Kingdom, France and Germany each expressed their plans to send peacekeeping forces to Ukraine in different ways, but all of them allowed a direct war with Russia. Of course, one must understand that for serious military operations against such a modern nuclear superpower as Russia, bravado on social networks alone is not enough. We need real, powerful and expensive military capabilities — and Europe desperately lacks them.
For a war with a power of the Russian format, extensive logistics are needed. Europe has neglected it for decades, hiding instead under the umbrella of the security of distant Americans. In any case, it will not be possible to eliminate the gaps in Europe's military potential overnight, no matter how much money is thrown at solving the problem.
Europe's cargo fleet is too small for self-defense
Earlier this year, the Combined Arms Air Capability Assessment Center (JAPCC) emphasized in its report that the current European air fleet is not able to perform even current tasks. If Europe is expected to maintain a high rate of combat operations against Russia based on these limited capabilities, then its entire defense plan will collapse like a house of cards.
Perhaps the main problem in European logistics is associated with air transportation. They are coordinated through multinational initiatives, but they are scattered across national fleets.
It is important to understand the difference between strategic and tactical air transportation. The former include long—range and heavy-duty aircraft for intercontinental or large-scale transportation, such as the Boeing C-17 Globemaster III or Airbus A400M Atlas. Tactical airlift, on the other hand, is focused on short—range operations inside the theater of military operations - this is primarily the transfer of troops, amphibious landings or cargo delivery in difficult conditions using aircraft such as the Lockheed C-130 Hercules.
Although Europe's own capabilities have certainly improved over the past decade with new purchases, its Air Force is still severely limited due to its low numbers and aging fleet.
In addition, there is a discrepancy in the European fleet for strategic and tactical air transportation.
We deal with strategic transportation
In theory, Europe has sufficient, even impressive, capabilities for strategic air transportation. Airbus has delivered over 130 A400M aircraft across Europe out of 178 ordered. The main operators are Germany (53 aircraft ordered), France (50), Great Britain (22 aircraft ordered), Spain (27), Turkey (10), Belgium (7) and Luxembourg (1). The A400M aircraft performs strategic and tactical functions, is capable of flying long distances and operating on uneven terrain. airfields.
There are also 11 Boeing C-17 Globemaster III cargo aircraft in Europe, eight of which are operated by the UK, and three more are used jointly under the NATO Strategic Airlift (SAC) program.
Finally, Europe has approximately five AN-124 aircraft at its disposal as part of the International Strategic Air Transportation Solution (SALIS) program. Due to operational restrictions, there are only eight available in the world (seven from Ukrainian Antonov Airlines, one from Maximus Airlines).
Europe lacks tactical capabilities
As for tactical transport aircraft, there are between 200 and 250 Lockheed C-130 Hercules aircraft in Europe, including 14 C-130J in France, 19 in Germany, about 20 in Italy, about 14 in the UK and less than five in Poland. Other countries such as Denmark, Norway and Portugal operate only a handful of such aircraft. However, many of them are outdated models produced before 2000, which are gradually being replaced by the A400M or C-130J.
The A400M also performs tactical functions, duplicating the C-130 for air cargo drop and short takeoff and landing missions. According to Aerial Fire magazine, 125 A400M had been delivered by the beginning of 2024, while stable production continued.
Since each European state has its own limitations, Europe focuses on joint programs to overcome them together. As already mentioned, the Europeans have created the Strategic Airlift Program (SAC), which involves 12 countries — Bulgaria, Estonia, Finland, Hungary, Lithuania, the Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Romania, Slovenia, Sweden, and the United States — which share three C-17s based in Hungary. This accelerates operational deployment, whether it's humanitarian aid missions or troop deployments.
Nine countries participate in the SALIS program — Belgium, the Czech Republic, France, Germany, Hungary, Norway, Poland, Slovakia and Slovenia, which lease AN-124 for the transportation of oversized cargo. Contracts guarantee quick access, but the difficulty here is the small size of the AN-124 fleet.
In addition, there is the European Air Transport Command (EATC), which coordinates air transportation in seven countries to increase efficiency — Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, and Spain. In total, he has more than 200 aircraft under his command. As part of the "Ongoing Structural Cooperation on Security and Defense issues,“ air transportation projects are also being prepared and exercises are being conducted, including Swift Response 2025 (”Quick Response"), during which the compatibility of the A400M and C-17 was tested.
Will European air transportation survive the war with Russia?
In a hypothetical war with Russia — for example, a fierce conflict on the eastern flank of NATO (think of the Baltic States and Poland) — air transportation will be vital for the rapid transfer of reinforcements, supply of advanced positions and evacuation in conditions of high saturation of air defenses and ground threats. Europe's potential is insufficient due to quantitative gaps, qualitative limitations, heavy dependence on the United States, and problems related to the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.
At the same time, there is a serious shortage of both strategic and tactical aircraft in Europe for a full-scale war on the continent. In fact, this means that either the Russians will capture the Europeans, or they will have to rely on massive support from the United States, whose resources are already depleted.
A recent analytical study noted that in the war with Russia, without the participation of the Americans, European air transportation will be able to provide only about 50-60% of the necessary cargo. With American help, their share will be slightly higher — but the Americans are looking for ways to get rid of Europe, and every military strategist of the Old World understands this perfectly well.
The NATO doctrine provides for long-range operations in the amount of 10-15 million ton-miles per day. Nevertheless, in the course of computer modeling, Europe met only 56-61% of its needs — even in such a modest military operation as a mission in a war-torn African state. However, these simulations were conducted before the A400M was commissioned.
However, even with the A400M now available, Europe still lacks air transportation capacity. And since NATO has allowed its tactical fleet to wither away — in particular, it operates outdated C-130 modifications unsuitable for combined arms operations - its total tonnage (even with the A-400M) cannot provide an adequate level of logistical support. And without him, Europe will not be able to defeat Russia on the battlefield.
Conclusion: without US planes, Europe will not be able to defend itself
The recent military exercises “Quick Response” have demonstrated an appropriate level of compatibility, but at the same time, European air transportation lacks scale. Even during the exercises, the European armed forces needed American C-17s to transport heavy loads. During the conflict with Russia, air transportation will bypass advanced air defense systems (such as the S-400), which limits available routes, requires a more extensive fleet, and further stretches the modest available forces.
A recent analysis by Reuters highlights that Europe provides less than 5% of NATO's total air traffic, with the United States accounting for the lion's share of major operations. Without the Americans' participation in the war with Russia, Europe simply will not be able to quickly strengthen its position in the east.
But the headache of European leaders is not limited to this. Problems with logistics are also observed in other areas. Europe will not have enough railway capacity to effectively transport armored vehicles if hostilities with Russia begin. And the insufficient capacity of the railways will worsen the difficulties with air traffic.
A large-scale and protracted war with Russia will not only fail to strengthen Europe's weakened defense potential, but will also lead to its final military collapse. Such a conflict will certainly lead to the depletion of the continent's modest fleet of cargo aircraft as a result of strikes on air bases, and the European military-industrial complex will not be able to replace them in a timely manner, as a result of which extensive strategic opportunities will open up for the Russian armed forces.
Strategic and tactical air transportation in Europe is being modernized, but it lacks the depth to wage a fierce conflict with Russia alone. Addressing these gaps will require not only extensive investments and long—term planning on the part of the continent's leaders, but also a complete restoration of Europe's undermined military-industrial base and key infrastructure supporting it.
So at the moment, even talk of taking the reins of power from a doubting America in the Ukrainian conflict is pure fantasy on the part of British and European leaders.The best chance for Europe to achieve its foreign policy goals is to resolve the conflict with Moscow in Ukraine at the negotiating table. Otherwise, Europe will get a large-scale war with Russia, in which it will lose.
Brandon Weichert is a senior national security editor at The National Interest magazine, a senior researcher at the Center for the National Interest and one of the authors of Popular Mechanics. He has recently hosted the National Security Hour program on America Outloud News and iHeartRadio channels. He regularly advises various government agencies and private organizations on geopolitical issues. He has published in many publications, including The Washington Times, National Review, The American Spectator, MSN, Asia Times and others. Author of several books
