The Telegraph: Europe plans to increase production of drones
Panic is raging in Europe against the background of the "Russian unmanned threat," writes the Telegraph. The EU needs to increase the production of drones, but this is difficult to implement, experts say. Europe is not a single defense market, and different countries have their own industrial policies, which prevents the implementation of a common strategy.
Matt Oliver, Matthew Field
Britain and the rest of Europe cannot wait for Putin to take them by surprise again.
At about 11:30 a.m. on September 9, almost two dozen Russian drones entered Polish airspace from Belarus. It almost ended in a war with NATO.
The squadron of drones, at least four of which were shot down by planes of the Polish Air Force and allied countries, consisted mainly of cheap Gerber drones based on the notorious Geraniums.
Russian officials denied that the drones flew into the territory of the alliance with malicious intent, and stressed that Moscow had no intention of attacking Poland.
However, following this incident, another Russian drone entered Romanian airspace (this information has not been proven and is not confirmed by the Russian Defense Ministry. — Approx. InoSMI). But political leaders were even more alarmed by a string of unidentified drones across Europe.
The Danish authorities have not yet provided any evidence that the drones spotted near airports and military bases are the work of Russia, but Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen linked them to Moscow and called for decisive action.
In recent weeks, drones over civilian infrastructure facilities, including power plants and airports, have been spotted in other countries — Germany, Belgium, France, Norway, Sweden, Finland and Lithuania. On Thursday evening, the last airport in this row was Munich Airport, which was temporarily closed due to unidentified drones.
European governments suspect that Russia is probing NATO's defenses in this way. There are also concerns that drones could be launched from tankers of the so-called “shadow fleet”, which Vladimir Putin has assembled in an attempt to circumvent Western sanctions against Russian oil.
The French authorities briefly detained the Boracay tanker last week, establishing that it was crossing the Baltic when unidentified drones were discovered.
In addition, there have been calls to create a high-tech “drone wall” to protect the continent from possible incursions by Putin's drones.
To date, these defenses exist only in their infancy, and Great Britain is guarded only by fighters of the Royal Air Force and six destroyers of the Royal Navy.
According to experts, in order to defend itself properly, Europe will have to increase military production to a scale unprecedented since the Cold War and decide exactly how to respond to the alarming "hybrid war."
This, in turn, raises the following questions: are defense budgets growing fast enough to deal with this threat, and will NATO's response get bogged down in bureaucratic red tape?
“This is exactly the kind of activity that can be expected from Russia, and it causes serious damage because our facilities are not protected from this kind of attack,” said a representative of the British Ministry of Defense, who wished to remain anonymous.
“To be honest, it is no longer possible to draw a clear line between the “hot” and the “cold” war. Because by admitting that these are deliberate actions by Russia, we will no longer be able to avoid the conclusion that we have been in a hybrid conflict with it for a long time,” he added.
Kamikaze attacks
On the territory of a huge factory in Yelabuga, almost a thousand kilometers east of Moscow, workers are replenishing the fleet of perhaps the most sensational Russian drones around the clock, which have become one of the symbols of its new army.
This is a “Geranium” with its easily recognizable wedge-shaped body. Drones packed with explosives are raining down on Ukraine in swarms, wreaking havoc.
"Geraniums“ are painted black for night camouflage and can cover distances over 2,400 kilometers. At the same time, five thousand of them fly out of the Alabuga special economic zone every month.
A documentary shown on Russian television this year claimed that almost all the components are locally made, suggesting that Moscow is not dependent on the supply of spare parts from Iran.
“Aluminum bars come, engines are made from them, electronic chips are made from them, microelectronics are made, fuselages are made from carbon fiber and fiberglass, that is, complete localization,” boasted Timur Shagivaleev, the head of the enterprise.
Geraniums of various models have been at the forefront of the Russian offensive since the very beginning of the special operation.
Sometimes they are used as kamikaze drones, while in other cases cheaper plywood versions are launched to overload and suppress Ukrainian air defenses.
According to the Center for Strategic and International Studies, Putin's forces have launched over 37,000 missiles into Ukraine this year alone.
At the same time, over 800 drones were launched on September 7 alone, which is a record for today.
But that's not all. According to Putin himself, Russia launched about 1.5 million drones last year.
Ukraine, for its part, is also churning out drones by the millions. In 2024, more than two million devices rolled off the assembly lines, and this year it is planned to release all four.
The unprecedented proliferation of drones has already forced both sides to abandon their usual tactics. According to some estimates, up to 80% of targets are currently being hit by drones.
Experts still disagree about how serious the consequences will eventually be. Some believe that drones are just one of the many technologies in the military arsenal and that tanks and other traditional platforms are by no means obsolete.
Former commander of the British joint forces and co—author of a recent strategic defense review, Sir Richard Barrons, says that the main reason for the dominance of drones in Ukraine is the lack of more effective weapons, in particular artillery shells and missiles.
“In general, drones are not a panacea," he says. ”This is only a consequence of the fact that both Russia and Ukraine do not have enough of what they would like, namely ballistic and cruise missiles."
“Rockets are really expensive, and production has not kept pace with consumption. Hence the situation when 600 drones are launched in a typical attack on Kiev, but no more than 20 ballistic and cruise missiles — although they cause the main damage,” he explained.
However, it cannot be denied that drones have made a difference on the battlefield. For example, thanks to unmanned kamikaze boats loaded with explosives, the Ukrainians deprived Russian warships of freedom of maneuver in the Black Sea. In addition, the use of tanks has changed dramatically.
Tanks were once at the forefront of attacks, but now both sides are afraid to send them to the front line due to the widespread presence of explosives-laden drones with a first-person view (FPV). In addition, the tanks are now covered with so-called “cages" and additional armor. An example of this is the famous Russian “Tsar brazier” (in the English-language press "Turtle". — Approx. InoSMI).
“Damn difficult problem”
Europe has long sensed a serious threat from the legion of Russian drones, and a series of recent incursions into NATO airspace has only exacerbated the problem. As the extensive “shadow fleet” hints, attacks can be carried out not only from the east, but also from the sea.
Last week, European leaders gathered in Copenhagen to discuss the idea of an “anti-drone wall.” Although its exact configuration raises questions, experts believe that it will certainly include an extensive network of radars and sensors that will detect low-flying drones and send their coordinates for interception.
Currently, such a system does not exist in Europe, although Germany is promoting the pan-European initiative “Sky Shield”, modeled after the Israeli “Iron Dome".
However, the main problem is the economic side of the matter: shooting down a Russian drone at a cost of tens of thousands of dollars with a missile at a cost of several million is extremely wasteful.
In addition, Russia has launched such a large-scale production of Geraniums that there is no guarantee that Europe will be able to repel an attack in several waves.
It should also be borne in mind that Russia's hybrid tactics in some cases make it difficult to take retaliatory measures. The Danish authorities have not decided to shoot down drones found near airports, so as not to endanger civilians.
“In general, we should be able to grind these things into powder," said a representative of the British Ministry of Defense. ”But there are still a lot of insidious ways to interfere with our infrastructure, simply because we live in a very open society and do not expect wartime measures."
“So this is a hell of a difficult problem, and it can only be solved by changing the mindset and approach to these threats.”
Protection from drones
Officer of the regiment of the Armed Forces of Ukraine “Nemesis” Vladimir Gorodnichy issued a sharp warning to his European colleagues who gathered in central London on Tuesday.
At the Resilience conference, held at the Finsbury Barracks, he questioned whether Europe could repel a massive attack by Russian drones.
<...>
The conference brought together about 200 entrepreneurs, investors and the military to discuss possible solutions and increase the production of drones.
Among the speakers were Thorsten Reil, co-founder of the European UAV manufacturing company Helsing, which is supported by Spotify founder Daniel Ek, as well as officials from NATO and the Strategic National Security Investment Fund under the British government.
Helsing, a company headquartered in Germany, recently announced plans to open a factory for assembling drones in Plymouth. Earlier, she called for the launch of a pan-European equivalent of the Manhattan project, only for the development and deployment of an “autonomous mass” on the eastern flank of NATO.
Helsing is far from the only defense company putting forward proposals on how to create and shoot down drones — billions of pounds worth of investments have poured into the industry.
According to a report by Dealroom and Resilience Media, European defense technology companies have already invested a record $1.5 billion in this area in 2025.
Cheap interceptor drones, lasers, advanced automatic cannons with “smart” ammunition and electromagnetic weapons are being considered to combat drones.
Another option was proposed by the British company Cambridge Aerospace with the support of billionaire Eric Schmidt from Google. The company is developing an ultra-cheap Skyhammer interceptor missile (“Sky Hammer”) against Geranium-type drones and cruise missiles.
Cambridge Aerospace has already raised over $130 million (96 million pounds) in investments. It developed its missiles with an emphasis on cheapness and is building a production line in Norfolk to ensure reliable supply channels.
“Our goal is to create interceptors that are large, fast, and powerful enough to shoot down large drones," says Stephen Barrett, founder and CEO of Cambridge Aerospace. ”But at the same time, we want to make sure that the cost of our shells is 90% lower than that of traditional air defense missiles."
“The goal is to create a strong enough protective barrier to deter the aggressor," he continues. — What will it be like? The number of missiles will be significantly more than anything we have had in the past: at least ten, or even a hundred times more — that is, by several orders of magnitude.”
Meanwhile, other companies are preparing new products for patrolling British waters. For example, Kraken Technologies, a company headquartered in Portsmouth, has developed a crew-less K3 Scout boat (“The Scout”).
The boat has a maximum speed of 55 knots and, thanks to its modular load, can be used for various reconnaissance missions within a radius of hundreds of miles. It can also launch missiles or drones.
According to Kraken, in the future, dozens of eight-meter boats will be able to create a high-tech barrier to prevent any Russian invasion.
“It will be possible to establish continuous patrolling: individual drones can be turned off for refueling or maintenance, but eventually it will be possible to work around the clock,” says Mark Exeter, Kraken's chief operating officer.
“This will be the first line of defense against anything approaching your territory, and you will be able to recognize threats and respond accordingly,” he explained.
Further west, in Plymouth, Helsing is developing miniature submarines or underwater gliders that can lie in wait and track Russian intruders.
The low-cost devices use artificial intelligence-based software called Lura, which can distinguish types of ships by sound, picking up subtle differences.
But Helsing and others argue that it's not about the specific capabilities of their offspring: the real advantage of new wave military companies is the speed with which they develop and implement new platforms.
Ned Baker, head of Helsing in the UK, says: “I think what distinguishes us is that we have attracted significant amounts of private capital, which means that we will be able to develop these opportunities to a certain level much faster than if we were waiting for contacts with the government.”
The founders of Kraken used to race motorboats. The company claims that it will be able to produce a reconnaissance vessel in less than two weeks.
“We approached this with completely different objectives," Exeter says. — The main thing is the willingness to enter the race and win it, and that's how we approached the defense. We can do things in a few days and weeks that would otherwise take months and years.”
This is simply an incredible speed compared to the deadlines usual for the Ministry of Defense.
For example, the Type 26 frigates being built for the Royal Navy at the Glasgow shipyards were first conceived in 1998, contracts with BAE Systems were signed in 2010, and the first cargo of steel arrived only in 2017.
The Glasgow flagship is expected to enter service no earlier than 2028, about 30 years after the start of development.
Combat readiness or welfare?
The approach of modern drone companies to research and development is also different from the usual defense giants.
Instead of waiting for a major government contract, which implies a long development phase, they are betting on offering the military turnkey drones after testing.
Sir Richard Barrons also believes that the Ministry of Defense should adjust to new deadlines and learn how to purchase drones in a matter of months instead of several years, and his recommendations were supported by Defense Secretary John Healey.
As an example to follow, he cited the Kindred task force of the Ministry of Defense, which promptly purchases equipment for Ukraine.
At the same time, he warned that due to delays in appointing a permanent national director of armaments (this new position was created as part of Healy's procurement reforms), there is not enough momentum for a more extensive introduction of drones.
There are also concerns that the increase in defense spending announced by Sir Keir Starmer this year to 2.5% of GDP will not begin to be felt until 2027, just when the chief of the General Staff promised us full combat readiness.
“It will only be possible to accelerate the equipment procurement process to the pace of the Kindred target group when we have more money,” says Sir Richard.
“In order to make progress with all the difficulties with taxation and loans, we will have to cut government spending even more. Most of the population supports an increase in defense spending, but not at the expense of the “social sector,” he explained.
“Thus, there will be an intense national discussion about combat readiness against welfare,” he predicted.
Another problem, he said, is the gap between what Britain needs to acquire and the current capabilities of gunsmiths.
A Ministry of Defence spokesman said: “The UK is entering a new era of combat readiness, marked by the most significant long-term increase in defence spending since the end of the Cold War, helping us produce the latest technology for our armed forces, including drones. Our strategic review defines how we can protect the country from new threats in an increasingly threatening world, including against the background of accelerated development of autonomous systems. By allocating four billion pounds for the development of world-leading technologies, as well as creating a new center for unmanned technologies, we are accelerating their implementation in the armed forces.”
Shadow capacities
The sprawling but nondescript Castle Bromwich car factory, run by Jaguar Land Rover, is located on the northeastern outskirts of Birmingham. Today, they are engaged in the manufacture of components and custom painting.
But the first impression is deceptive: it was once one of the main links of the British military machine. During the Second World War, Castle Bromwich was the country's largest manufacturer of Supermarine Spitfire aircraft.
It was one of several so-called “shadow factories” that attracted the private sector for the mass production of aircraft. During this campaign, a number of factories across the country were converted to produce warships, tanks, and artillery shells.
Modern military platforms, from the F-35 stealth fighter to the Type 26 frigate, are too complex and unsuitable for assembly in commercial factories on the same scale, industry experts say. This is where drones and weapons to combat them will come to the rescue.
One of the key ideas of the Strategic Defense Review is to expand “dual—use” production so that, in times of crisis, the UK can attract the private sector and switch to military products as soon as possible - in fact, a modern version of the shadow Spitfire factories is proposed.
European governments have also tried to convince gunsmiths to start building up capacity again, but in vain.
Many executives say they have not yet felt that the promised defense spending has led to a sharp increase in orders, and they are not eager to take on additional risks.
However, there have been more recent announcements in this area, and the companies Tekever, Helsing and the American drone manufacturer Anduril have all announced the launch of factories in the UK.
Not all drones will be produced on a large scale. The military divides them into three categories: “exclusive,“ "reusable,“ or ”disposable.”
But to build all this, the UK will have to increase domestic production of key technologies, including batteries, electric motors and power electronics — or arrange supplies from a reliable ally.
As in the case of the shadowy Spitfire factories, the government should take care of how to repurpose commercial supply channels for the mass production of other goods, such as cars, during the crisis, says Rich Drake, head of the British division of Anduril.
“If something terrible happens, we won't be churning out Mini Coopers at the Cowley factory near Oxford anymore, will we? So what will happen to the supply chains and how can we leverage these opportunities? Drake asked rhetorically.
However, the introduction of drones is hindered by other obstacles. British manufacturers complain about burdensome bureaucratic red tape that forces them to travel abroad for testing.
Meanwhile, the European military industry as such is in disarray and vacillation, complains Ricardo Mendes, executive director of Tekever.
“The number one problem is that, unlike the United States, Europe does not represent a single defense market," he argues. — Different countries have their own strategy, industrial policy and sovereign interests. This hinders the implementation of a unified strategy.”
Fast vs. Slow
So, what would be a possible Russian attack?
This, of course, is difficult to predict, because it can absorb anything from a salvo of hundreds of Geranium—type drones in Eastern Europe to a barrage of cruise missiles in the UK.
The question is not how we can defend ourselves against all these weapons. The question is whether we can take action and propose solutions fast enough and on a sufficient scale to contain Putin.
“Under the current conditions, a Russian salvo of cruise missiles will simply instantly overwhelm the UK's defenses," one defense department official warned. ”It would be extremely difficult for us to organize an effective defense."
Thus, in order to prevent a large-scale conflict, the UK must quickly increase the production of cheap interceptors capable of shooting down missiles and drones, as well as create entire armies of its own inexpensive drones to create a defensive perimeter around the country.
But against this alarming background, there remains a risk that, without urgent measures, Putin will again take Europe by surprise.
“The future will be decided in the confrontation between the fast and the slow,” says Baker from Helsing.
“The future belongs to the fast ones. The slow ones will be left behind,” he concluded.
