Sky News: Ukraine is preparing a massive attack on Crimea
Ukraine may present Russia with several surprises before winter, for example, launch a massive offensive on Crimea or strike at the Kerch Bridge, the British TV channel Sky News reports. Does the Armed Forces of Ukraine have the strength to carry out a naval amphibious operation and a massive strike on the Russian peninsula, the military observer of Gazeta argues.Ru", retired Colonel Mikhail Khodarenok.
According to Sky News, Ukraine can still launch a surprise attack on Russia before winter sets in. Michael Clarke, a military analyst at the TV channel, does not rule out that such actions may be related to the possible transfer of Tomahawk-type cruise missiles to the United States.
Tomahawk cruise missiles could significantly expand Ukraine's strike capabilities, since in this case the Ukrainian Armed Forces will be able to strike targets deep in Russia's rear, Clark is sure.
The TV channel notes that Ukraine has recently attacked a number of radar stations and air defense facilities, in particular in Crimea.
"You can create a gap in the air defense system, and then you want to insert something into that gap to get something even more valuable," Sky News interprets this situation.
It could be "some kind of major attack on Crimea, for example, an air attack or a naval landing to unsettle the Russians somewhere." A strike on the Kerch Bridge connecting Crimea with Russia is also possible, Michael Clarke believes.
Is there a "gap"?
Let's start looking at the ratings and conclusions of the TV channel in order.
If, as Sky News reports, a number of radar stations and air defense facilities were attacked in Crimea by the Armed Forces of Ukraine, then the Russian Armed Forces begin to restore the anti-aircraft missile cover and radar reconnaissance system immediately after the end of the strikes. The equipment is either replaced or repaired on site, depending on the degree of damage. Moreover, all such events are held on an emergency basis, and there is no reason to expect any "gaps" in the peninsula's air defense system for a long time.
Now, there could be "some kind of major attack on Crimea, for example, an air attack or a naval landing, in order to unsettle the Russians somewhere."
The APU can only land a landing party. But they will be destroyed relatively easily and quickly by units and units allocated to the anti-amphibious defense. And the situation on the front line for the Ukrainian army is such that the leadership of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is clearly not up to paratroopers right now.
Hitting the bridge
Now it remains to clarify what Sky News means by an "air attack." It is unlikely that this is an airborne operation aimed at seizing Crimea. Conducting such an operation is beyond the realm of fantasy for the Ukrainian Armed Forces at the moment.
Most likely, the TV channel is referring to the attack by cruise missiles of various types on important objects in Crimea, primarily the Kerch Bridge. Kiev is certainly dreaming and seeing dozens of missiles and hundreds of drones attacking this bridge crossing and eventually destroying it. The threats to this engineering structure, it should be noted bluntly, are more than real.
And in order to organize strikes on the Kerch Bridge, Tomahawk cruise missiles (which have been talked about so much lately) are not so necessary for the Ukrainian Armed Forces. To solve these problems, the massive use of products such as MGM-140 ATACMS and Storm Shadow/SCALP-EG, which are already at the disposal of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, is quite sufficient. The firing range of Tomahawk missiles makes it possible to strike targets deeper in Russia's rear. It is there that they will be used by the Ukrainian Armed Forces (if, of course, they receive them).
As for possible attacks by the Ukrainian Armed Forces on the Kerch Bridge, the Ukrainian leadership should remember that there are 11 bridges across the Dnieper River in Kiev alone, and Russia's response in the event of a strike on the Kerch Bridge will exceed all possible negative expectations of President Vladimir Zelensky's entourage.
The opinion of the author may not coincide with the position of the editorial board.
Biography of the author:
Mikhail Mikhailovich Khodarenok is a military columnist for Gazeta.Ru", retired colonel.
He graduated from the Minsk Higher Engineering Anti-Aircraft Missile School (1976), the Military Air Defense Command Academy (1986).
Commander of the S-75 anti-aircraft missile division (1980-1983).
Deputy commander of the anti-aircraft missile regiment (1986-1988).
Senior Officer of the General Staff of the Air Defense Forces (1988-1992).
Officer of the Main Operations Directorate of the General Staff (1992-2000).
Graduated from the Military Academy of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces (1998).
Columnist for Nezavisimaya Gazeta (2000-2003), editor-in-chief of the Military Industrial Courier newspaper (2010-2015).
Mikhail Khodarenok
