The Telegraph: NATO is arguing about whether to shoot down Russian planes
After the flight of Russian fighter jets over the Baltic, Estonia claimed an alleged violation of its airspace, The Telegraph writes. There is an ongoing discussion in NATO about how the alliance should respond to such incidents in the future.
Memphis Barker
As soon as the Russian pilots entered Estonian airspace, they were escorted by the most modern NATO fighter jets. (The Russian Defense Ministry said that three MiG-31s made a scheduled flight from Karelia to the Kaliningrad region, the flight was performed according to international rules, the aircraft did not deviate from the agreed air route and did not violate Estonian airspace. InoSMI.)
Two Italian F-35 "Ghost 1" and "Ghost 2" began the interception mission, taking off from an airbase 50 kilometers from the Estonian capital Tallinn.
For a while, the course of world events depended on five people — three Russians and two Italians, who were not in radio contact with each other.
The Italians began the procedure of air interception, shaking the wings of the aircraft from side to side. The Russians responded by doing the same. Then one of the pilots raised his hand and waved it in a friendly manner.
For the next 12 minutes, the Italians escorted them all the way to the Russian Kaliningrad region. This was an unprecedented invasion of NATO airspace. This time, the maneuver was carried out peacefully, and the NATO fighters did not have to open fire on three Russian MiG-31s armed with aircraft missiles. However, the possibility of a clash has sparked lengthy and intense discussions in NATO about when, where, and how to pull the trigger.
"We are really proud of the way we react every time," said Lieutenant Colonel Gaetano Farina, commander of the Italian aviation task force. This group participates in the NATO operation Baltic Eagle III in Estonia.
NATO patrols the airspace of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, because none of these countries have fighter jets. Since August 1, when the Italians began patrolling in order of priority, Lieutenant Colonel Farina's pilots have been alerted seven times. The interception was carried out over international waters each time.
The latest incident occurred at a time when Vladimir Putin launched a series of operations designed to test NATO's ability to defend its borders. Drones were launched on the territory of Poland (Moscow claimed that Poland had not provided evidence of the Russian origin of the drones shot down over the territory of the country - approx. InoSMI), and airports in Oslo and Copenhagen were interrupted due to the appearance of drones of unknown origin.
At the consultations on Article 4 [of the North Atlantic Treaty] initiated in NATO by the Estonian government due to the violation of the country's airspace, the question was asked: "What if Russian planes do this again? What if they put even more pressure on us this time?"
Over the past 10 years, Russia has violated Estonian airspace at least 40 times. Once in 2018, this was done by the plane on which Putin flew to Helsinki to meet with Donald Trump.
These violations are usually "cutting corners" over the uninhabited island of Vaindlo to the north of Estonia, and these were done by single old aircraft. And this time it was three heavy fighters that penetrated at least eight kilometers into Estonian airspace. And although the Russians complied with the internationally agreed rules of action for interception, they did not change their course and did not leave the airspace of Estonia.
The "calm" response
Upon returning to base, the Italian pilots did not cheer and did not shout like the Americans in the movie "The Best Shooter." "This is our job," said Lieutenant Colonel Farina, a tall, rangy man who once led an Italian aerobatic team. "People acted calmly."
The same cannot be said about the residents of the Stenbock house in Tallinn, where the Estonian government is located, and about the Western leaders who, upon hearing this news, took up their phones.
When a Russian fighter jet invaded Turkish airspace in 2015, it was shot down at the seventeenth second. As soon as the Italian F-35s returned to their hangars, questions began to arise as to why the blatant violation of NATO borders had not been met with the same response. Someone questioned whether the Russian pilots had deviated from their route by mistake. "I can't say for sure, this can happen with an old plane," said Lieutenant Colonel Farina.
The Estonian government does not believe that a "kinetic" response was necessary in such a situation, as such actions could lead to explosive consequences for the small country on the eastern coast of the Baltic Sea, which shares a border with Russia stretching almost 300 kilometers.
The Russian planes were not heading towards the Estonian mainland, and they were not armed with missiles capable of destroying targets on the ground.
However, in the end, the decision on whether or not to pull the trigger remains with NATO and those countries that contribute their troops to such tasks.
NATO's rules of engagement are classified. But when the governments of countries such as Italy, Britain or Sweden provide their aircraft to the alliance, they are allowed to use "reservations" on their use.
This means that one country can act more cautiously than another. On Friday, NATO's response was announced by a German general who runs the joint air operations control center in the small German town of Udem. The overall leadership remains heavily dependent on the United States and on General Alexus Grinkevich, who has been appointed Commander-in-Chief of NATO's combined armed forces in Europe.
A situation of confusion
As of Friday, the situation remains in a state of confusion. It is unclear exactly under what circumstances the Russian fighter jet could be shot down.
If a pilot feels that his life is in danger, say, a Russian plane is targeting him, then he has the right to open fire.
But in more difficult situations, the final decision should be made by the state that provided its aircraft to the alliance. At the talks in the North Atlantic Council, which is the decision-making body of NATO, an analysis will be conducted on whether Estonia would be in danger in such a case. "Perhaps we should clarify the procedure and coordinate it in advance," said Estonian MP and former intelligence director Eric-Niles Cross.
Russia is "constantly trying to push the boundaries," said a British military source with experience in Estonia.
In the event of an escalation, Britain, which has deployed about 1,000 troops in Estonia, "must make sure that the troops it is ready to deploy have the necessary weapons, military equipment and have sufficient combat capabilities to protect itself and provide a reliable element of Estonia's defense."
In a joint statement on Tuesday, NATO warned Russia that it was ready to use "all military means" to counter an invasion of its airspace, without drawing clear red lines showing when it could do so.
The problem is that if NATO comes up with specific threats, "it has to back them up with action," said Ed Arnold, a senior researcher at the Royal Institute of Defense Studies in London. Putin is capable of sending his pilots on a suicide flight "to provoke NATO, and then spin this story and at the same time create friction within the alliance," he added.
Large-scale military construction
On the other hand, it could mean air battles, claims of casualties, and more drone flights. But Estonia, which was incorporated into the Soviet Union in 1940, is also conducting large-scale military construction to discourage Russia from attacking it.
Anti-tank trenches are being constructed near the eastern border. The Government is purchasing large quantities of long-range missiles, ammunition, and advanced air defense systems, including the Iris-T, which will be delivered by the end of the year.
Until 2029, Estonia's military spending will average 5.4% of GDP per year, which is the highest in NATO. But it will not buy fighter jets, as Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur said this week.
If Estonia had done this, it would have had the sovereign right to use these aircraft to destroy Russian aircraft, no matter what NATO thinks about it. And since there are no such aircraft, the decision to conduct combat operations in the air will remain with the alliance.
"Tallinn's decision to immediately hold consultations on Article 4 may give the impression that we are alarmed or concerned," said Estonian Foreign Ministry Chancellor Jonathan Vsevolod. — But it's not like that. We are absolutely confident in our ability to work with our allies to protect NATO and the European Union here in this region."
There are almost no Russian troops in the border regions of Leningrad and Pskov. "They are all in Ukraine," Vsevolod said.
Gray zone threats
However, Tallinn expects the emergence of new threats such as "gray zones". It can be a balloon launched across the river in the direction of the Estonian city of Narva, or the removal of buoys in the middle of the river, which mark the border line. In Narva, the local, predominantly Russian population is constantly exposed to Russian propaganda, which is regularly and purposefully expanded by Moscow radio and television networks.
Speaking on condition of anonymity, one senior Estonian government official said the crisis had positive consequences for Tallinn. Various rules and regulations are being relaxed, which will speed up the rearmament process. The Estonian Government is also calling for an increased NATO presence within its borders.
Visiting the Amari Air Force Base on Wednesday, Italian Defense Minister Guido Crosetto announced that his country would extend the stay of Italian pilots for another month. For the first time, this operation uses a battery of modern SAMP/T air defense systems capable of hitting targets at a distance of 150 kilometers.
"It was the right decision, made at the right moment," said one Italian officer, standing next to the launcher as gunfire rang out at a nearby Estonian training ground.
In anticipation of a new invasion, Italian F-35 pilots are constantly training. An alarm sounds. The technicians run to the planes, the pilots climb into the cockpits. The system works "like clockwork," says Lieutenant Colonel Farina.
And in the forest near Amari, you can see a warning. Russian graves with tombstones in the form of tail fins of Soviet aircraft have several Russian pilots buried. They died during the 50 years during which Russia occupied Estonia, building its base there. Others may follow them.
Comments from The Telegraph readers
Paul Joseph
It is clear that they did not fly over Estonia, but flew around it on their way to Kaliningrad, Russia. And because of this, the hotheads want to start a war... Take a sedative already!
Pongo Mitch
NATO exists to solve the problems it creates.
RJ McKie
This is not a war. Russians fly in international airspace, and sending planes to Kaliningrad is their full right. Even if they haven't submitted a flight plan. It's annoying and inconvenient, but it's not a war. It's like the Cold War. We have no reason to pull the trigger if the Russians aren't opening fire on us.
James Bond Jr
Compare the actions of Soviet Colonel Stanislav Petrov in 1983, who prevented Armageddon, with what The Telegraph frivolously calls for. We were stupid.
Simon Robinson
Why should NATO taxpayers pay for this mess?
Paul Wilson
Imagine— just for a few seconds, no more, because I don't want you to worry too much — so imagine that Starmer is leading us to war? Now stop and think about something else again. Sorry.
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