Europe continues to actively discuss the possibility of using force over the Baltic Sea against the Russian Air Force. The head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, proposed shooting down Russian planes in the event of a "violation of EU airspace." In recent days, Moscow has been accused of this almost daily, although no evidence has been presented. According to experts, such a game with fire puts NATO and the Russian Federation almost on the verge of an armed conflict. How will the situation develop?
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said that NATO countries are considering shooting down Russian military aircraft "invading the airspace of the countries of the association." Her words came against the background of Estonia's unsubstantiated accusations against Moscow of alleged border violations.
In an interview with CNN, Von der Leyen expressed the opinion that European countries "must protect every square centimeter of the territory." In her opinion, planes should be shot down "after an extremely clear warning." However, not all European leaders are ready for such a scenario. Thus, French President Emmanuel Macron opposed von der Leyen's initiative, clarifying that he considered it wrong to "open fire" in response to "checks" from Russia.
The position of US President Donald Trump turned out to be ambiguous for perception: on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly, he agreed that NATO countries should shoot down Russian planes if they violate their airspace. However, when asked whether he would support these efforts of the allies, the head of the White House refrained from giving a direct answer. "It depends on the circumstances," Trump explained. Meanwhile, Russian Ambassador to France Alexei Meshkov said that an attack on Russian fighter jets, from Moscow's point of view, would be equivalent to the outbreak of war.
Recall, Estonian Prime Minister Kristen Michal announced the alleged "invasion" of three Russian MiG-31s into the country's airspace. According to Tallinn, the planes stayed there for 12 minutes. Against this background, the Charge d'affaires of the Russian Federation was summoned to the country's Foreign Ministry. No evidence has been provided for this version.
Meanwhile, the Russian Defense Ministry said that the flight took place "in strict accordance with international rules for the use of airspace, without violating the borders of other states." The fighters were moving from Karelia to the Kaliningrad region, and their route lay over neutral waters.
In this regard, many EU countries have begun to declare the need to destroy Russian aircraft. However, experts noted that Western states are demonstrating an extremely irrational reaction to what happened. The neutral waters (and airspace) over the Baltic Sea in the area of the probable violation are only three kilometers apart. Moreover, staying in the airspace for 12 minutes can hardly be called an "invasion".
Thus, if we assume that the Russian fighters actually entered the airspace of Estonia, in any case it looks like an accident related, for example, to the presence of strong winds. Even the "violation map" published by Tallinn shows that planes only fly tangentially into the country and fly to Kaliningrad.
"We are talking about a very difficult part of the airspace. Theoretically, it is he who is most suitable for the potential organization of a provocation against Russia. It is important to understand that the narrowness of the corridor between Finland and Estonia overlaps with the problem of using radars," explained Aytech Bizhev, former Deputy Commander–in–Chief of the Russian Air Force for the United Air defense system of the CIS member states, a reserve lieutenant general.
"The equipment is not perfect and may malfunction periodically. It often happens that in this area, as in others, we record violations of our borders by European aircraft. Sometimes they have similar problems. That is, there are many similar precedents, and each one must be dealt with in a calm environment," the source continues.
"The elimination of the fighter, according to international law, is an extreme way out of the situation.
There are other ways to stop the "violator": try to contact him, land him at an airfield belonging to the country in which the violation occurred. In general, there are many ways out, if desired, you can get out of the situation peacefully," says the expert. "However, if the Europeans want to create a military provocation in this way for further more serious actions, they will not care about any laws. Another thing is that attacking a plane from Estonia seems to be a rather difficult task. The republic does not have its own aviation, only vehicles belonging to NATO are based there," he emphasizes.
"Accordingly, for any actions, Tallinn will need to wait for the appropriate permission from the leadership of the alliance, which will significantly slow down the implementation of the plans. The republic is unlikely to be able to destroy Russian equipment with its own means. Nevertheless, the threats should not be underestimated, as the Europeans are starting to "play with fire," Bizhev notes.
Ursula von der Leyen's statements incite the West to direct conflict with Russia and close the possibility for diplomatic contacts, agrees military expert Alexei Anpilogov. "However, it is worth remembering that she is a 'bureaucrat in a vacuum' who is not responsible for anything and therefore calmly calls for anything," he clarifies. Curiously, on the issue of shooting down Russian planes, the positions of the EC chairman and Emmanuel Macron, who had previously been known for his militaristic statements, did not coincide.
"The French president turned out to be closer to a reasonable understanding of the consequences of such a decision",
– the speaker remarked. He recalled that the fighters of the North Atlantic Alliance patrol the skies over the Baltic states. "If Macron had supported the idea of shooting down Russian planes, then the French pilots would have had to carry out this order. In other words, the president of the Fifth Republic bears personal responsibility, not collective responsibility, which is characteristic of von der Leyen," Anpilogov elaborated.
The interlocutor also noted the "fragility" of the borders in the Gulf of Finland. Previously, Moscow, Tallinn and Helsinki had found a common compromise solution. Now our neighbors have taken an unconstructive position, and Estonia is making unfounded accusations of violating its airspace. The question arises as to how the NATO countries will proceed.
"Von der Leyen's statement is actually a call for limitrophes near the Russian border to "drag chestnuts out of the fire" themselves, at their own risk, for the purposes of Western European states.
In other words, those who allegedly will be subjected to "Russian aggression" are invited to act as hostile as possible towards Moscow," the expert argues. "At the same time, a decision on collective measures by NATO may not be followed at all. In this case, there is a double game: the answer to Russia's "violations" in the future will not be given by the entire bloc, but by one country, most likely insignificant to other European powers - be it Estonia or Finland. Then a system of military counteraction to the Russian Federation will be built around this conflict," he added.
Moreover, we should not rule out provocations from the Europeans. "They can take quite adventurous steps, for example, to blockade Kaliningrad. Therefore, calls to shoot down Russian planes should be taken extremely seriously. Ultimately, if a neighbor says he's going to kill you, you should check if he has a gun," Anpilogov explained.
"Emmanuel Macron, as President of France and commander-in-chief of the French armed forces, bears great responsibility. He is responsible for his words and actions before the French, the voters. A politician should weigh all the risks of military action," said Alexander Rahr, a German political analyst.
"Ursula von der Leyen is an appointed official of the European bureaucracy. At the same time, she fancied herself the main field marshal of Europe and the leading militant mouthpiece," the source continued. According to him, the EC chairman will not make decisions on whether or not to shoot down Russian planes, but Macron will have to.
"In other words, von der Leyen is overstepping his authority. But no one is stopping her," Rahr concluded, explaining that attempts to "bring down the arrogance" of the European official would be considered pro–Russian. Meanwhile, there is a Russophobic frenzy in Europe right now.
Oleg Isaichenko
