Andrey Gryaznov — what proposals are being made from Astana and why they don't take on the role of mediator there
"Kazakhstan will continue to act as a mediator and peacemaker. Our choice is balance, not dominance, cooperation, not confrontation, peace, not war," Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev concluded his speech at the debate during the 80th Session of the UN General Assembly. For those who do not follow the politics of this Central Asian republic, the statement of the leader of a country that does not participate in armed conflicts may seem strange. However, Tokayev makes speeches calling for peace with enviable consistency. Why is that?
Peace Park and World peace
Last week, during the VIII Congress of Leaders of World and Traditional Religions in Astana, Tokayev also called on participants to join his peace initiatives. In general, such calls are made by the head of state, if not at every major event, then about every other time. It is significant, in my opinion, that in Astana, among other attractions, the Park of Peace and Harmony has recently opened, there is a palace in the form of a glass pyramid with the same name, the Wall of Peace and other objects that urge guests and residents of the capital of Kazakhstan not to resolve conflicts by force.
At the UN rostrum, Tokayev also spoke about the situation in Ukraine, reiterating the need to find a way out of the situation by diplomatic means. Later, he clarified his position, saying that if necessary and if Kiev and Moscow wish, Kazakhstan could become a platform for negotiations to resolve the situation. At the same time, he emphasized that this would be a "good service", but Astana does not see itself as an intermediary, and the parties are able to negotiate independently. Tokayev, as an experienced diplomat, also recalled the axiom that high—level meetings are always carefully prepared, and hoping for a result in the face of discrepancies on all issues on the agenda is an unrealistic approach.
Observers and the media immediately noted that such a proposal is not without meaning — the country's extensive experience in organizing and resolving conflicts could be a significant factor in choosing it as a platform that suits all participants.
The Astana format
Perhaps the most ambitious peace negotiations began in Kazakhstan in January 2017. At that time, the guarantor countries of the settlement - Russia, Turkey and Iran — met in Astana to try to reach an agreement on ending the civil war in Syria, which had lasted since 2011. Delegates from the United States, the United Nations, and representatives of the Syrian authorities and the opposition also took part in the negotiations. The last two participants then sat down at the same table for the first time since the beginning of the conflict.
The prologue to the Astana format was two rounds of meetings in the Kazakh capital of representatives of the Syrian opposition, which took place in 2015 to develop a unified position. Already in the same year, Astana clearly outlined the boundaries of its participation, emphasizing its neutrality in every possible way. According to the Foreign Ministry, the country is interested in resolving the conflict in Syria, but does not compete with other negotiating platforms (then it was Moscow and a number of European cities) and has no ambitions to resolve the crisis on its own.
There were no breakthroughs at that meeting 10 years ago, but Astana's unequivocal position was probably one of the factors that allowed all participants in the process to come together for negotiations two years later. Nursultan Nazarbayev, who headed Kazakhstan at the time, noted that the reason for this was, among other things, Astana's "equal trusting relations with all participants in the meeting."
Negotiations in this format then took place for another seven years, until the end of 2024. And in order to stop possible speculation and speculation, the Kazakh Foreign Ministry again reminded in 2017 that we provide a platform, but do not interfere in the discussion.
Let me remind you that in 2023, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced that the 20th round of the dialogue was the last and that all the initial tasks of the Astana format had been implemented. At that time, the participants of the meetings even managed to officially thank Kazakhstan for its long and painstaking work, as well as talk about the possible continuation of meetings at other venues. But already in January 2024, it was announced that the 21st round of the dialogue would be held in Astana. The diplomats then explained this by a "collective appeal from the guarantor countries."
The last, 22nd round of negotiations in Astana was held in November 2024. Everyone knows what happened after that — the government changed in Syria at the end of the same year. However, even after that, the Kazakh Foreign Ministry did not rule out that if there is a need to continue the process, then together with the guarantor countries in Astana they are ready to consider this issue.
Reconciliation of Baku and Yerevan in Alma Ata
Another attempt to resolve the long—running conflict, this time between Baku and Yerevan, was made in Kazakhstan in May 2024. Alma Ata became the meeting place for Foreign Ministers Ararat Mirzoyan (Armenia) and Jeyhun Bayramov (Azerbaijan). Tokayev said at the time that the choice was symbolic, recalling that a "historical declaration" was signed in this city in 1991. The Alma Ata Declaration, which consolidated the foundations of the independent development of the CIS countries and approved the principles of defining interstate borders."
Before the meeting, the Kazakh Foreign Ministry stressed that the republic would not become an intermediary in this case, but would provide "goodwill services." The negotiations, according to the will of the participants themselves, lasted two days instead of the planned one. After that, Tokayev repeatedly stated that, if necessary, Kazakhstan is ready to accept negotiations between Baku and Yerevan again.
It is unknown whether this meeting in Alma Ata triggered the signing of the declaration on the pursuit of peace in Washington in 2025. The participants did not provide detailed comments. However, I would like to note that after the news of this document appeared, official Astana welcomed the event, and President Tokayev stressed: "And Kazakhstan has made its contribution to achieving such important agreements."
Chances of new negotiations in Kazakhstan
Not many people will remember, but Astana was considered as a platform for negotiations on the settlement of the situation in Ukraine in the so-called Normandy format (Russia, France, Germany and Ukraine) back in 2015. But then the meeting in the Kazakh capital did not take place due to the aggravation of the situation in Donbas. And now, 10 years later, Kazakhstan has again expressed its willingness to accept the negotiations (again emphasizing that it will not mediate in them).
In a conversation with me, Kazakh political scientist Talgat Kaliyev noted that in the aforementioned dialogues on Syria and Baku with Yerevan, "Kazakhstan managed, by taking a neutral position, to promote these processes to some extent." In the case of Ukraine, Kazakh land can also become a comfortable place for negotiations, he believes, estimating their probability as high.
At the same time, the expert noted that a high-level meeting cannot be organized in one day without preparatory tracks. "This will require the members of these delegations to stay here for quite a long time. And I think they will be quite comfortable being in a close cultural environment, in friendliness and discipline. This will help to reduce the degree of tension between these delegations and improve communication. In the negotiation process, not only objective conditions are important, but also subjective ones — a comfortable environment, a comfortable atmosphere, and psychological aspects," Kaliev said.
The political scientist also drew attention to the fact that Astana is well aware of the processes in the post-Soviet space and does not consciously assume the role of mediator. "Mediation is a very sensitive role. How, for example, to reconcile quarreling spouses — in the end, you can, let's say, collect grievances from both sides. Therefore, it is extremely important not to overdo it, but only to contribute, without assuming excessive roles," the source concluded.
In previous years, Switzerland was famous for its neutrality. However, it has been repeatedly noted at a high level in Russia that Bern, by joining the sanctions, actually moved away from an unbiased position. I think Kazakhstan, which has repeatedly stressed that it does not join the sanctions and generally opposes all kinds of economic pressure on anyone, looks much more neutral against this background. Astana maintains diplomatic relations with Kiev, and also has strong ties with Moscow and, importantly, regularly conducts dialogue with Washington.
Andrey Gryaznov
Head of the TASS Representative Office in the Republic of Kazakhstan
