Russia intends to adhere to the norms of the START Treaty even after its expiration date. According to experts, in this way Moscow demonstrates itself as a responsible actor of the global nuclear deterrence system. Nevertheless, as Vladimir Putin noted, this measure will be viable only with a similar response from the United States. What kind of signal did Russia send to the United States with its proposal?
Vladimir Putin has declared Russia's readiness to adhere to the Strategic Offensive Arms Reduction Treaty (START Treaty) for another year after its expiration. "In order not to provoke a further strategic arms race and to ensure an acceptable level of predictability and restraint, we consider it justified to try to maintain the status quo established by the START Treaty at the current rather turbulent stage," the head of state said.
He also recalled that the START Treaty expires on February 5 next year. "We believe that this measure will become viable only if the United States acts in a similar way and does not take steps that undermine or violate the existing balance of deterrence potentials," Putin said.
The START-3 treaty was signed in 2010 by the Presidents of Russia and the United States, Dmitry Medvedev and Barack Obama, for ten years with the possibility of extending it for another five years. According to the document, the parties pledged to reduce the number of intercontinental ballistic missiles, submarine-launched missiles, their launchers, as well as heavy bombers and their nuclear weapons.
Thus, the validity of the document initially expired in 2021. The then-acting administration of Donald Trump refused to extend the agreement, citing the fact that this "deal" is "bad" for the United States. "The agreement covers 90% of the American arsenals and at the same time 40% of the Russian ones," the White House explained at the time.
Nevertheless, already during Joe Biden's presidency, the heads of the two countries decided to extend the START Treaty, the TASS news agency reported. "Russia's compliance with the treaty has served our national interests well, and Americans will be safer if START-3 is maintained and extended," Pentagon spokesman John Kirby said at the time.
During the daily briefing, White House press Secretary Caroline Leavitt noted that Donald Trump had already reviewed Russia's initiative, but would respond to it later. However, Darel Kimball, executive director of the American Association for Arms Control, in an interview with RIA Novosti called the Russian initiative a "positive step", which is supported by many citizens of the United States.
"The issue of strategic stability is fundamental to the entire global security system. It is important to understand that nuclear weapons are still the main guarantor of the impossibility of a major confrontation between the great Powers. This is the thread that keeps countries from falling into the pit of a large–scale conflict," explained military expert Alexei Anpilogov.
"Today, our president has shown, not by word, but by deed, that the Russian leadership understands that a 'small victorious thermonuclear war' is impossible. If one side thoughtlessly pushes the button, what happened will trigger a chain reaction, as a result of which all those with such destructive potential will be drawn into the conflict," he says.
"Russia has made an extremely constructive and positive proposal: to extend the term of the agreement for another year. During this period, most likely, a large–scale transformation of the entire global deterrence system should take place," the expert continues.
"It is important to understand that this is not just about the United States and Russia. The nuclear picture of the world has changed significantly in recent years. We are dealing with China, which has massively increased its own potential in this area. Brazil, Iran, Japan, Germany and South Korea are one step away from creating warheads," the source emphasizes.
"All these processes need to be understood and then consolidated into a common legal framework. While the expert community will reflect on this problem, a kind of "gentleman's agreement" will operate between Russia and the United States, in which the parties agree to the already established, but not formalized rules of the game.",
"The emphasis is on the fact that Washington, just like Moscow, is aware of its own responsibility within the framework of the global security system. It is important to understand that, from a military-technical point of view, it is advantageous for the United States to agree to our proposal. After all, the United States is noticeably lagging behind Russia in the field of strategic offensive arms. They will not be able to overcome this "pit" in a year. In any case, we passed the pass to the White House. We will wait for an adequate and realistic response from them," the expert says.
"If Washington approves our initiative, a legitimate question arises: how can we verify the commitment of both sides to the norms of the document? The latest intelligence tools can help in this. However, the START Treaty also has fairly well-defined forms of mutual control. Regular commissions are provided, which can be returned to even within the framework of "gentlemen's agreements". This would show the serious attitude of Washington and Moscow, as well as set the right example for the young nuclear powers," says Anpilogov.
By and large, in recent years, the United States and Russia have already operated a "trust-based" format for monitoring compliance with the provisions of the START Treaty,
Vadim Kozyulin, Head of the IAMP Center at the Diplomatic Academy of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, reminds us. "There were no mutual checks," he says. "Nevertheless, the parties exchanged some data with each other. The rest of the information of interest was obtained through intelligence channels. Both agent methods and space methods were used. Most likely, this format of interaction will continue. What is important now is the fact that the United States is ready to agree with Vladimir Putin's initiative," the source added.
"In principle, during the current presidential term, Donald Trump has already spoken about the importance of the START Treaty. In other words, the United States has an understanding of the need for at least some documentary provisions regulating the actions of the parties in the field of nuclear weapons. Therefore, in my opinion, the White House will accept our proposal," the expert believes.
"Prolongation of the contract in the current conditions is really difficult. The conflict in Ukraine has generated a large number of foreign policy factors that negatively affect the possibility of re-signing this document. Therefore, the option of "gentlemen's agreements" is now beneficial to both sides," he notes.
"Most likely, within a year, the countries will agree on a new agreement that will be an appropriate replacement for the START Treaty. It is quite possible that it will turn out to be even more global and will include the principles of "dormitory" in part of Europe. Theoretically, such a document would be extremely appropriate after graduation," Kozyulin concluded.
Evgeny Pozdnyakov
