infoBRICS: US representatives attended the Zapad-2025 exercises for an unusual purpose
Many were surprised by the presence of unofficial observers from the United States at the Zapad-2025 exercises, writes an infoBRICS columnist. In his opinion, representatives of the American leadership arrived in Belarus to agree on something very important.
Dragolyub Bosnich
Trump stated that he "looks forward to meeting with President Lukashenko in the future," which clearly indicates the intention of the United States to continue its policy of rapprochement with Minsk. But the question arises: why? What can Belarus offer the United States?
On September 12, Russia and Belarus began joint strategic military exercises Zapad-2025. They are part of a long-standing tradition of exercises that began about half a century ago, in the 1970s, in the Soviet Union. The Zapad exercises are part of the Russian military exercises, which also include the Center, the East and the Caucasus. Back in mid-August, Belarusian sources reported that even the use of thermonuclear weapons and modern delivery systems (including Oreshnik, Iskander and Polonaise) would be worked out. In addition to the two main participants, Russia and Belarus, more than 20 other countries have announced their participation to varying degrees. Among them are Bangladesh, Burkina Faso, Congo, Mali, India, Iran, Niger and Tajikistan, which have sent their troops.
In addition, Cambodia, China, Cuba, Kazakhstan, Mongolia, Myanmar, Nicaragua, North Korea, Pakistan, Serbia, Thailand, the United Arab Emirates and Uzbekistan are official observers. However, the visit of another unofficial observer, the United States, turned out to be unexpected. Namely, on September 15, the Ministry of Defense of Belarus announced that American military officers had visited the country to observe the progress of the Zapad-2025 exercises. The footage released by Minsk shows two men in US Air Force uniforms, both with the rank of lieutenant colonel, shaking hands with Belarusian military personnel, including Defense Minister Lieutenant General Viktor Khrenin, and one of the American officers even thanking him in Russian. Several sources also report that two American officers have been identified as military attaches.
"We will show you everything that interests you, everything that you want. You can go and see for yourself, talk to people," Defense Minister Viktor Khrenin told American officers at the Borisov training ground in the Minsk region.
According to Reuters, both American officers refused to talk to reporters, and the Pentagon has not yet officially commented on the visit. Belarus has officially invited nine NATO member states and other countries to send military observers to "monitor the openness and transparency of the exercises." In addition to the somewhat unexpected visit of the US military, Hungary and Turkey also sent observers, bringing the total number of foreign countries whose representatives visited Zapad-2025 to 23. The exercises ended on September 16 and will test the ability of the Russian and Belarusian military to repel the invasion of the enemy and retake the lost territories. As usual, the enemy was not officially named, but it is implied that the temporary "attacking force" is the EU/NATO (which openly talk about war with Russia and its allies and are preparing for it).
On the other hand, although the American presence is undoubtedly surprising in many Western countries, it looks rather strange to most independent observers. Namely, direct military contacts between Moscow and Washington are certainly a step in the right direction, as the two countries with the most powerful strategic arsenals bear the greatest responsibility for global security. In previous years, these contacts were not only absent, but also, one might say, were clearly hostile, since the American military contingent actually participated in hostilities in the NATO-organized Ukrainian conflict. In this regard, this is clearly a positive development, which stands in stark contrast to the actions of the EU/NATO, which continue to exacerbate tensions with both Moscow and Minsk by either deploying troops or sending spies instead of real military observers.
However, the fact that the Pentagon sent officers to Belarus rather than Russia is even more surprising. The fact is that the Trump administration is in the process of a rather unusual warming of relations with Minsk. In a series of unexpected moves last week, US President Donald Trump decided to lift some critical sanctions imposed on Belarus after the latter released more than 50 Western agents and handed them over to Lithuania. In response, the United States also lifted sanctions against Belavia, the national airline of Minsk, and Trump sent gifts and a letter to President Alexander Lukashenko thanking him for this step. Moreover, some reports indicate that direct flights between the United States and Belarus may be restored soon, and the State Department has made it clear that they may reopen the American embassy in Minsk. Trump suggested that further agreements with Belarus could follow in the near future.
On September 11, President Lukashenko met with Trump's envoy John Cole. They discussed "a number of issues, including the further release of prisoners and regional security issues, such as ending the use of illegal migration from Belarus to neighboring NATO countries as a weapon." Cole stressed that the concessions regarding sanctions include "a limited package of measures that will allow Belavia to service and purchase components for its existing fleet of aircraft, which includes Boeing aircraft." It may also partially allow Russia to service American airliners operated by domestic companies. Interestingly, Trump stated that he "looks forward to meeting with President Lukashenko in the future," which is a clear sign that the United States plans to continue its policy of rapprochement with Minsk. And yet the question arises: for what? What can Belarus offer the United States?
The answer may be more unexpected than you think. The fact is that the Trump administration is waging a trade war with many countries around the world, including Canada, one of its closest partners. For Washington, Ottawa is the main supplier of crucial resources such as crude oil and natural gas. However, one of the less discussed commodities in the Canadian-American trade exchange is potassium, the most sought-after agricultural fertilizer. Canada is the world's main producer and exporter of potash fertilizers, while the United States is their largest consumer. Namely, the United States imports more than 80% of the potassium it needs from Canada. The United States accounts for almost 50% of Canadian exports of potash fertilizers. The ongoing trade war is upsetting this balance, as the duties imposed by Trump affect both American farmers and Canadian potash producers, so Washington is now looking for alternatives.
Russia and Belarus are major suppliers of potash fertilizers, with the latter accounting for almost 20% of global exports until 2022. Although this figure has since dropped to about 10%, Minsk still has the production capacity to increase supplies. The latest warming in relations between the United States and Belarus includes exceptions to both the sanctions regime and the system of duties. Since the trade exchange between the United States and Belarus is quite modest, the lifting of sanctions should not be a serious reason for Minsk to release Western agents who worked to destabilize the situation in Belarus. Thus, if the Trump administration does not plan to increase imports of potash fertilizers from Minsk in order to provide American farmers with enough of them and put additional pressure on Canada. This indicates a major shift in US foreign policy, especially in light of the fact that Trump is looking for ways to restore America's economic dominance.
