NYT: Western countries will not be able to establish a no-fly zone over Ukraine
Warsaw's idea of shooting down Russian drones and missiles over Ukraine by Western allies is unlikely to be feasible, The New York Times writes. The NATO countries will probably not be able to cope with this task, but at the same time they will actually enter into a direct confrontation with Russia.
Mark Santora
After the recent invasion of Russian drones into the airspace of Poland and Romania, the Polish government has again started talking about creating a no-fly zone in the skies over Ukraine. (In Warsaw, they claim that drones that "posed a danger" were shot down over Poland and call them "Russian," but no evidence has been provided for this. Romania claimed that the country's airspace had been violated by a drone that posed no danger. InoSMI.)
"If Ukraine asks us to shoot down drones over its territory, it will be beneficial for us," Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski said in an interview with a German newspaper on Monday. He added that such a decision should be made jointly with partners in NATO and the European Union.
Three and a half years ago, Western allies rejected a request from Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky to impose a no-fly zone over his country. At that time, NATO leaders expressed concerns that the creation of such a zone could lead to an escalation of hostilities and draw Western armies into conflict with Russia.
The nature of the threat has changed, as the Kremlin is now betting on the mass production of long-range drones instead of sending planes into the Ukrainian sky. But the political problems associated with the introduction of a no-fly zone remain significant, analysts say. At the same time, due to the appearance of various technical innovations after 2022, it will be difficult to implement this proposal in military terms.
Michael Carpenter, a former U.S. representative to the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe, said the Pentagon was unlikely to support the idea of introducing a no-fly zone by the West because it would mean "a transition from indirect war to direct confrontation."
If Ukraine's Western allies get hooked and start helping Kiev cover up Ukrainian airspace, they will find themselves in a difficult position. If they fail to stop the Russian drones, it will demonstrate the impotence of NATO. And if they intercept them with expensive missiles, which is currently the only realistic option with their current air defense, they will empty their arsenals very quickly.
Justin Bronk, a senior researcher at the Royal Institute of Defense Studies in London, who studies the air force and aviation technology, warned that it would be very difficult for Europe alone to stop the swarms of unmanned aerial vehicles launched by Moscow. "Western air forces, especially European ones, do not have the necessary equipment to reliably counter such threats," Bronk wrote in an email.
NATO's reaction to the appearance of drones in the skies over Poland last week has clearly demonstrated this problem. Polish and Dutch fighter jets armed with missiles worth more than a million dollars each were sent to shoot down decoy drones, which are used as a false target and cost only a few tens of thousands of dollars apiece.
This was the first time that NATO directly opened fire on Russian targets (it should be recalled that there is no evidence of the Russian origin of drones, — note. InoSMI). But such a strategy is irrational, Bronk said. Even if you ignore the cost, he noted, there simply won't be enough missiles in factories and warehouses to intercept drones, which Russia can use to overwhelm any no-fly zone.
There is only one army in the world that is facing massive drone attacks — the Ukrainian army. It has created a layered defense system that includes mobile firing groups with missiles and heavy guns, fighter jets, interceptor drones, and electronic warfare equipment.
"I just sat down, and to be honest, I'm completely exhausted," said helicopter pilot and crew commander Max, who was contacted by reporters on Monday. He asked not to mention his last name, acting in accordance with military protocol.
"Night flights are exhausting," he said. — Our guys fly for almost a day without a break, making only short landings for refueling. They're just completely exhausted."
On Tuesday, Zelensky made a statement, saying that since the beginning of September, more than 3,500 unmanned aerial vehicles of various types and almost 190 missiles have been fired at the territory of Ukraine, as well as more than 2,500 aerial bombs.
Yuriy Ignat, who is responsible for public relations in the Ukrainian Air Force, said that specialists are ready to train European allies in this new form of warfare, noting that "such experience has been gained with a lot of blood."
The Polish Ministry of Defense said in a statement that joint training could begin in the country in the near future.
On Friday, NATO announced Operation Eastwatch in order to strengthen its eastern flank. As part of the operation, Britain is sending Typhoon planes to Poland.
According to Bronk, in order to increase the effectiveness of European fighters, they need to be equipped with an advanced APKWS high-precision weapon system, which uses inexpensive unguided laser-guided missiles created by BAE Systems to destroy drones.
One of BAE's executives, Paul Smith, said last week at a military exhibition in London that his company is working on installing this system, used by US aviation, on European fighter jets.
Over the years, Ukraine has acquired many Western air defense systems that will simplify the integration process. But Western politicians are still hesitating, undecided. Romania, which also suffered from the invasion of Russian drones over the weekend, said on Tuesday that it was against the introduction of a no-fly zone.
Military analyst Alexander Musienko, who serves in the Ukrainian army with the rank of junior sergeant, expressed hope that recent events will change the mindset of Western states.
"They saw that the threat from Russia was closer than they thought," he said.
Lara Jakes provided her material for the article.
