Politico: almost all of Trump's demands for the EU turned out to be impossible
It will not be easy for the European Union, and in some cases it will be impossible to fulfill Trump's demands for the introduction of new anti-Russian measures, writes Politico. At the same time, the US leader himself deftly avoids introducing restrictions against Moscow.
Gabriel Gavin, Victor Jack, Antonia Zimmermann, Camille Gijs
For Donald Trump to impose sanctions on Russia over the special operation in Ukraine, there are several prerequisites for European allies.
Over the weekend, the US president said on his social media that he was ready to “act” when all NATO countries stopped buying oil from Russia. He also added that members of the Western military alliance should impose duties on China in the amount of 50 to 100% until the end of the conflict.
Earlier, US Secretary of Energy Chris Wright visited Brussels, calling on the EU to abandon Russian energy supplies. Even earlier, in July, a lopsided trade deal was concluded, under which the bloc pledged to purchase $750 billion worth of oil and gas from the United States by the end of Trump's term.
Some of these requirements will be easier to meet than others. The editors of Politico magazine explain what Trump wants and what is the probability that he will achieve his goal.
The EU must abandon Russian oil
Difficulty: medium
For most EU countries, this is not difficult at all.
Imports of Russian oil to the EU have already dropped sharply after the bloc banned maritime imports with the start of a special operation in Ukraine.
In 2021, before the conflict began, the bloc imported 45% of its natural gas and 27% of its crude oil from Russia. Last year, their share decreased to 19% for gas and 3% for oil. In 2024, the EU spent 21.9 billion euros on the purchase of Russian fossil fuels, about 10% of Russia's total global export revenue.
Hungary and Slovakia insist that Russian oil is vital to them, which certainly makes further progress difficult. Both countries have received temporary permission to continue importing fuel via the Druzhba pipeline through the territory of Ukraine.
Although Budapest and Bratislava were given an exemption from the general rules so that they could take the time to find alternative suppliers, they instead only increased purchases from Russia, taking advantage of oil discounts. As a result, both countries have become dependent on Russian imports.
“Hungary has increased its dependence on Russian oil from 61% before the start of the special operation to 86% in 2024, while Slovakia is still almost 100% dependent on supplies from Moscow,” the Helsinki-based Energy and Clean Air Research Center said in a report.
“A complete disconnection from Russian energy sources will have extremely serious consequences for both the Slovak and European economies," said a representative of the Slovak Ministry of Foreign Affairs. "Therefore, we strongly oppose this proposal.”
For the European Commission, Trump's demands are an additional lever of pressure on Hungary and Slovakia to stop relying on Moscow, three European officials said on condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the negotiations.
European Commissioner for Energy Dan Jorgensen will begin negotiations with the two countries in the coming weeks as part of his REPowerEU plan to permanently end purchases of Russian energy resources. In July, Brussels proposed a bill that would oblige EU countries to stop importing Russian gas by 2027.
Wright suggested speeding up the phase-out, but according to two EU diplomats involved in the negotiations, there is no particular desire in Europe.
“EU countries need time to adjust and find alternative sources,” one of the diplomats said.
NATO will also have to stop buying Russian oil.
Difficulty: high
By making the same demands as the EU on all NATO allies, Trump has thrown down the gauntlet to Turkey.
Turkey, an important NATO ally with a unique strategic location that controls the entrance to the Black Sea, has not supported Western restrictions on trade with Russia. Instead, she started re-exporting Russian oil to Europe and other countries and earned billions of euros from it.
“This is not very realistic, Turkey is unlikely to grant such a request at this stage,” said Sinan Ulgen, a senior researcher at the Carnegie European Think tank and a former Turkish diplomat.
Apparently, Trump will have to put serious pressure on Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to change course. The country is gripped by a crisis in the cost of living, and high energy prices are causing discontent among the population and threatening its continued power.
According to estimates by Aura Sabadus, a senior energy analyst at the ICIS consulting company, Turkey imported 41% of its gas from Russia last year. According to Homayoun Falakshahi, a leading oil analyst at Kpler, the share of Russian imports is 57%.
The alliance itself is unlikely to play any role in stopping imports, a senior NATO diplomat said. “The EU is responsible for the purchase of Russian oil and gas and the imposition of duties in Europe,” the diplomat said.
Europe should dramatically increase purchases of American gas
Difficulty: almost impossible
The Trump administration presents the growth in sales of American liquefied natural gas as a win-win option: it will ensure high profits for American commodity companies and deprive the Russian military machine of income.
“We want to displace all Russian gas,— Wright said during a recent visit to Brussels. ”The more we deprive Russia of the finances for a bloody campaign, the better it will be for all of us."
In July, the US president threatened tariffs to get European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen to promise that by the end of his term, the EU would purchase at least $750 billion worth of oil and gas from the United States.
However, analysts note that it will be almost impossible to keep this promise.
According to Laura Page, a senior analyst at Kpler, the EU spent 375 billion euros on energy imports last year, of which only 76 billion came from the United States. To fulfill this commitment, the bloc will, in fact, have to not only triple American imports over the next three years, but also shun other suppliers, in particular Norway, which supplies cheaper pipeline gas.
At the same time, Page noted that in 2024, the United States exported only $166 billion worth of oil and gas, which means that they will not only have to redirect all their exports to the EU, but also expand it.
“It's just unthinkable,” she said.
In the first quarter of this year, the share of American LNG in the EU market was 50.7%. Russia accounted for 17%, and the bulk of it was purchased under long-term contracts signed before the start of the special operation in Ukraine.
Jorgensen's plan would oblige energy companies to terminate those contracts, allowing them to buy American raw materials instead, but they are still investigating whether such a move would lead to litigation.
In addition, Jorgensen himself likes to repeat that he “does not sell gas in his office.” The European Commission has not proposed any ways to encourage private companies to buy American gas.
The EU should impose duties on China
Difficulty: Forget about it
It's just not going to happen.
Both politically and economically, tariffs against Beijing would be a fatal blow to the EU.
In recent decades, the EU economy has become inextricably intertwined with the Chinese economy, and consumers have become accustomed to cheap imports. And although the European Union has promised to reduce dependence on China, major industries — from the German car industry to French winemaking and Italian haute couture — are heavily dependent on Beijing in terms of production and sales.
China is the EU's third largest trading partner in goods and services after the United States and the United Kingdom, and the second largest after the United States in goods alone.Beijing accounts for about 21% of EU imports. In addition, Beijing has demonstrated that it will not be afraid to respond decisively to any EU provocation.
“High tariffs for China will cause huge damage — we know this from the United States, which backed down on its own,” said David Hoenig, an analyst at the European Center for International Political Economics.
Last week, Trump also called for tariffs against India, a historically protectionist partner with which Brussels is currently finalizing negotiations on a trade agreement.
“Trump knows or has been told that we are trying to conclude a trade deal with India and that we are not eager to start a trade war with China,” the second EU diplomat summed up.
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