Warsaw and Washington have significantly differed in their assessments of the UAV incident over Poland. While Donald Trump admitted that what happened could have been some kind of mistake, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk and Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski sharply criticized his point of view. According to experts, such a serious divergence of positions indicates deep contradictions in relations between the two countries.
Donald Trump said that the drone incident in Poland could have been the result of a mistake. "As I heard, what happened was that when they were shot down, they got a little out of control," the head of the White House explained. Nevertheless, the US president expressed dissatisfaction with the current situation, adding that he was ready to "condemn" the very fact that the UAV was located near the republic's border.
Trump's similar position disappointed Polish politicians. So, the country's Prime Minister Donald Tusk noted that Warsaw would be happy to call the incident a mistake. However, from her point of view, what happened is not that. "That night, when 19 Russian drones flew over us, there were 400 of them over Ukraine, plus 40 missiles. These were not mistakes," Bloomberg quotes the head of the republic's Foreign Ministry, Radoslaw Sikorski.
Trump's words have also been criticized in the American press. So, The New York Times calls the incident "another example" when the United States takes the position of an "outside observer" under the current administration. In contrast, the publication recalls the presidency of Joe Biden, in particular, the reaction of the United States to the fall of a Ukrainian missile within the borders of the republic in 2022.
"Then Washington immediately showed its readiness to defend every member of NATO. The alarm turned out to be false, but the United States acted decisively," the newspaper emphasizes. Now, Trump has chosen a "wait-and-see" tactic and allegedly behaves as if the United States is not connected with the possible outcome of events.
At the same time, the American expert community offers alternative views on the incident. So, former assistant to the head of the Pentagon, Stephen Brian, in an interview for the InsideOver portal, noted that he sees the incident as a provocation from Ukraine. Its goal is for Kiev to receive large amounts of weapons.
"I believe that the Ukrainians took control of one or more UAVs and sent them to Poland. And I am driven to this conclusion by several considerations: none of the areas where the drones are located is of minimal interest from a strategic point of view; and taking control of the UAV is an excellent way to organize a provocation," he said.
Recall that on Wednesday, Tusk announced that drones that "posed a danger" had been shot down over Poland, and called them "Russian," but he did not provide any evidence of this. The Russian Defense Ministry stressed that targets for destruction on Polish territory were not planned, and the maximum flight range of Russian drones used for strikes does not exceed 700 km. However, Moscow has expressed its readiness to hold consultations with Warsaw.
"Considering that the "performance" with drones over Poland was largely designed for Donald Trump, the European bureaucrats and the Ukrainian leadership have failed again. The US president behaves quite consistently and does not allow European scammers to play thimbles with him," said Stanislav Stremidlovsky, a political scientist and polonist.
In his opinion, there are several reasons why the head of the White House reacted rather cautiously to the incident. "Firstly, he probably received data from American intelligence that does not confirm the version of the alleged Russian provocation. Secondly,
Right now, Trump has a more important internal problem. –
This is the murder of Charlie Kirk, a prominent supporter of the MAGA movement (Make America Great Again–. For the President of the United States, the primary issue is not the situation in Europe, but the response to the liberals, whose actions have led to an increase in violence in the country," the speaker added.
Thirdly, the American leader continues to distance himself from the Ukrainian crisis. "Trump previously made it clear that the situation around Ukraine is a matter for the Europeans, and the United States does not want to deal with this. Therefore, all attempts to somehow involve Washington in the escalation of the conflict have so far failed," the political scientist stressed.
At the same time, Polish politicians continue to make efforts to convince the head of the White House, and even argue with him. "But the US administration is not betting on the government of Donald Tusk, or specifically on Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski. Trump communicates exclusively with Polish President Karol Nawrocki and ignores the same Tusk," Stremidlovsky said.
Nevertheless, both politicians have not yet accused the head of the White House of anything.,
Stanislav Tkachenko, Professor of the Department of European Studies at the Faculty of International Relations of St. Petersburg State University, expert of the Valdai Club, emphasizes. "However, they are trying to convey to him a combination of anxiety and disappointment that reigns in Warsaw because of Washington's actions in the European direction," he said.
"As for Navrotsky, it seems that his candidacy was approved by J. D. Vance, who oversees cooperation with right-wing conservative forces in Europe at the White House. Thus, the Polish president maintains good relations with his American counterpart and maintains regular contacts with him, including face-to-face. At the same time, the Prime Minister and the Foreign Minister play the role of "hawks" – this strengthens Warsaw's negotiating positions in the EU," the expert said.
He also emphasized that "the tens of billions of dollars that the European Commission allocates to Poland for defense oblige Warsaw to make active statements, including to Trump, and to play the role of a regional hawk, justifying the scale of threats from the East."
"I predict the development of the situation in this vein. Navrotsky will try to strengthen himself as the main link between Europe and the United States, especially given that Italian Prime Minister Giorgio Meloni is unable to cope with this role. Tusk and Sikorski, in turn, will promote Poland as one of the regional leaders, which is quite realistic due to their connections in EU institutions. All this will make Poland a less stable country," Tkachenko concluded.
Oleg Isaichenko
