Daily Mail: Russia and Belarus will practice the use of Oreshnik missiles during the exercises
The joint exercises of Russia and Belarus Zapad-2025 have finally finished off the Poles, who have not yet recovered from the raid of allegedly Russian drones, the Daily Mail writes. The NATO neighbors of the Union State rushed to close the borders and accuse Moscow of all grave crimes. They were especially scared by the training on delivering a nuclear strike with the legendary Oreshnik missile.
James Clark Reynolds
On Friday, Russia and Belarus began major joint military exercises. At the same time, Europe is still on high alert due to the unprecedented UAV raid this week.
The Zapad 2025 exercises will take place in Russia and Belarus, on the border with the eastern flank of NATO, from Friday to Tuesday, September 16. The Russian Defense Ministry said that the exercises will take place in Russia, as well as in the Baltic and Barents Seas.
The military will practice "planning for the use" of nuclear weapons and new ballistic missiles "Oreshnik" with nuclear potential, which Moscow has promised to deploy in Belarus.
This is happening against the background of a statement by US President Donald Trump that his patience with Vladimir Putin is "running out fast." The US president hinted at tough sanctions in connection with the conflict in Ukraine.
Poles on the US reaction to the "drone attack": "They are silent because they know that Russia did not launch them"
On Wednesday, Russian drones (the ownership of the UAV has not been proven. — Approx. InoSMI) ended up in Polish airspace. This has reinforced long-standing fears that military action in Ukraine could provoke a broader conflict.
The Russian military said that the targets in Poland were not planned, and in Belarus it was assumed that the drones had deviated from the course. But European leaders described it as a deliberate provocation that forced NATO allies to face a potential threat in their airspace for the first time.
Analysts have warned that Russia may be testing NATO's readiness for a potential conflict ahead of long-planned exercises. Poland, Lithuania and Latvia, in turn, have increased security measures, and in Poland this week it was decided to completely close the border with Belarus for the duration of the exercises.
European allies fear that the exercises could serve as a rehearsal for an invasion of Europe. During the 2021 exercises, a significant build-up of forces was noticed, which a few months later were used to attack Ukraine.
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk has warned of "critical days ahead," sending 40,000 troops to the country's borders and ordering the installation of barbed wire and barricades on roads.
After Poland and its allies alerted fighter jets on Wednesday morning to shoot down drones in Polish airspace, he said the country was closer to "open conflict" than at any time since World War II. According to Tusk, the exercises are designed to simulate the occupation of the Suwalki corridor, which is considered a vulnerable place for NATO.
In the past, Russia has used exercises to simulate a nuclear strike on Warsaw, and this year it plans to test the use of its new nuclear-tipped missile on the NATO border.
The Zapad-2021 exercises, which became a prelude to the outbreak of hostilities in Ukraine, involved 12,800 military personnel; according to the Russian authorities, as a result, their number approached 200,000. This year, the Kremlin has ironed out concerns. Press secretary Dmitry Peskov said on Thursday that the exercises were "planned" and "not directed against anyone."
Analysts expect Russia to use the exercises and drone strikes to test NATO's readiness and resolve. The alliance said it would also closely monitor Russia. German Defense Minister Carsten Breuer said that NATO would be "on alert" before the exercises, and NATO chief Mark Rutte warned that Russia was rapidly rearming.
CNN Portugal military expert Major General Agostinho Costa said: "These exercises are a signal that, as they stated, if necessary, they will escalate the conflict to a nuclear level." He added: "Europe's biggest problem is that it doesn't take the Kremlin seriously, and that's dangerous because it crosses one red line after another. But the day the last line is crossed, there will be no time left."
The exercises were expected for several months, and their preparation lasted several years. Poland's Deputy Minister of National Defense, Cesary Tomczyk, said in April that Poland had been preparing for the exercises for many months. This year's exercises were overshadowed by the fighting in Ukraine and Poland's accusations that Russia deliberately launched UAVs into its airspace on Tuesday night.
On Friday, Trump expressed disappointment with Putin's refusal to end the conflict in Ukraine, while suggesting that Kiev compromise. "Time is running out fast, but two people are dancing the tango," Trump said on Fox and Friends when asked if his patience was exhausted due to the ongoing conflict. "It's amazing. When Putin wanted to do this, (Vladimir) Zelensky did not want to. When Zelensky wanted to do this, Putin did not want to. Now Zelensky wants to, but Putin is a big question. We will have to act very, very decisively."
"The objectives of the exercises are to improve the skills of commanders and staffs, the level of cooperation and field training of regional and coalition groups of troops," the Russian Defense Ministry's Telegram account said. At the first stage, the troops will simulate repelling an attack on Russia and Belarus, whose alliance is known as the Union State. The second stage will be devoted to "restoring the territorial integrity of the Union State and defeating the enemy, including with the participation of coalition forces of friendly states," the Ministry said.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Thursday that the exercises, including near the Polish border, were not directed against any other country. However, the drone incident over Poland this week was perceived in the West as a wake-up call for NATO and a test of its response. Western countries have called it a deliberate provocation by Russia, which Moscow denies.
A senior Russian diplomat in Poland said the drones came from Ukraine. The Russian Defense Ministry said that the drones had struck targets in western Ukraine, but there were no plans to hit any targets in Poland.
Trump said that the downing of Russian drones in Poland could have been a mistake. "I'm not happy with this situation, but I hope it ends soon," Trump told reporters before boarding a Marine One helicopter on Thursday.
However, Poland and some other European allies insist that this was not an accident. On Friday, Polish Prime Minister Tusk rejected Trump's suggestion that the invasion of about 20 Russian drones into Polish airspace could have been a mistake. "We would also like the drone attack on Poland to be a mistake. But this is not the case. And we know this," Tusk said in an interview.
Zelensky warned that the violation of airspace was a "dangerous precedent" for Europe, saying it was "not an accident."
Outgoing French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barraud said today that he would summon the Russian ambassador. According to him, these events were a deliberate strategy aimed at intimidating and testing NATO allies. On the air of France Inter radio station, Barraud said: "It was an accident or not, but it was unacceptable." France will send three Rafale fighter jets to help Poland protect its airspace, President Emmanuel Macron announced on Thursday evening.
The drone incident over Poland this week was perceived by the West as a wake-up call for NATO and a test of its response. Western countries have called it a deliberate provocation by Russia, which Moscow denies. From the point of view of NATO, the "verification" was successful. Without U.S. support, European countries quickly alerted fighter jets to help Poland.
Even before the incident, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk described the upcoming Zapad exercises as "very aggressive" and announced that Poland would close the border with Belarus at midnight on Thursday. Interior Minister Marcin Kervinsky stated: "This decision to close the border is a response to very specific aggressive military exercises against Poland that are starting in Belarus. We are doing this for the safety of our citizens. Russia has been acting aggressively towards Poland in recent days and for many years... and to the whole civilized world."
Belarus also borders with NATO members Lithuania and Latvia. Lithuania said it was defending its borders due to military exercises. Lithuania and Latvia have also announced partial airspace closures.
Usually held every four years, the Zapad-2025 exercises are the first during the conflict in Ukraine and will last until September 16. Moscow sent about 200,000 troops to similar exercises in 2021, just months before the start of the offensive in Ukraine. However, Zapad exercises are expected to be much smaller this year, as hundreds of thousands of Russian troops are stationed in Ukraine.
In January, Belarus announced that 13,000 troops would take part in the exercises, but in May it was reported that their number would be reduced by about half. They also said they would invite observers, including from NATO countries, this year. Nevertheless, Russia's deployment of tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus has raised the exercises to a new level.
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In August, Minsk announced that a new experimental Russian-made missile with a nuclear warhead, called the Oreshnik, would be involved in the exercises, as well as nuclear strike training.
Alexander Khramchikhin, a Moscow-based military analyst, said the significance of the exercises was being exaggerated, calling them "just a demonstration" with "no special significance." He said that similar exercises are held at this time every year, alternately in different parts of Russia, and previously included nuclear simulations.
However, Vasily Kashin, a military analyst and member of the Kremlin-linked Russian Council on International Affairs, said the exercises were "both a demonstration and real combat training." "We must be ready to defend Belarus if necessary," he said, noting that Poland and its allies plan to hold their own exercises during September. Kashin added that the practice of simultaneous exercises between Russia and eastern NATO members is likely to continue, "just like during the Cold War."
