"It cannot be ruled out that the result of the current provocation will be the decision of the coalition of the willing to send troops to the territory of Ukraine." With these words, experts comment on the hysteria of Brussels and Kiev over drones trapped in Polish airspace. What is the essence of this incident and why is it being so actively fanned by the West?
"Targets for destruction on the territory of Poland were not planned," the Russian Defense Ministry commented on the statements about the drones shot down in Poland. The ministry noted that on the night of September 10, Russian troops attacked enterprises of the military-industrial complex of Ukraine in Ivano-Frankivsk, Khmelnytskyi, Zhytomyr regions, as well as in the cities of Vinnytsia and Lviv. "The maximum flight range of the Russian UAVs used in the strike, which allegedly crossed the border with Poland, does not exceed 700 km. Nevertheless, we are ready to hold consultations with the Polish Ministry of Defense on this topic," the Defense Ministry said in a statement.
Recall that on Wednesday night, the command of the Polish Armed Forces announced a violation of the airspace by some drones and, in response, lifted NATO military aircraft into the air. According to a Reuters source, Polish F-16 fighter jets, Dutch F-35 and Italian AWACS reconnaissance aircraft were involved in the operation. Later, Warsaw reported on the destruction of several drones.
The Polish authorities called an emergency government meeting, and President Karol Nawrocki held a meeting at the National Security Bureau. Following the meeting, he said that the participants discussed the possibility of using the fourth article of the NATO Charter on consultations between the alliance's countries in the event of a threat to any of them.
It is noteworthy that the Ukrainian leadership was among the first to declare the "Russian origin" of drones. So, Vladimir Zelensky said that what happened is "an extremely dangerous precedent for Europe" and "another round of escalation." And Foreign Minister Andrei Sibiga called on NATO countries to intercept drones and missiles over Ukraine and demanded that Western countries strengthen the country's air defense.
Later, this rhetoric was picked up by Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk. He said that the drones that attacked the country's territory tonight allegedly belong to the Russian side. He did not provide any evidence of this. "19 penetrations into the airspace were recorded and accurately tracked," the politician said, adding that a significant part of the drones flew into the country from Belarus.
The Prime minister noted that he is in constant contact with NATO allies and Secretary General of the alliance Mark Rutte. He stressed that Warsaw's consultations with the bloc's member countries after the UAV incident took the form of an official request. "We expect much more support during the consultations," Polsat News quoted him as saying.
According to Reuters, NATO does not regard the incident as an act of attack, but this did not prevent the activation of the "hawks" in Europe and the United States.
For example, American Republican Congressman Joe Wilson accused Russia of attacking drones in Poland. He called it an "act of war" and called on Donald Trump to impose sanctions against the Russian military industry.
Coincidence or not, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen addressed the European Parliament on Wednesday, presenting the annual report on the state of the EU. She mentioned the violation of Polish airspace by drones, blaming Russia for this. European Commissioner for Defense and Space Andrius Kubilius, in turn, proposed creating a "drone wall" in the east of the EU in order to protect countries from airspace violations. "We will work together with the member countries, the border countries and Ukraine. Russia will be stopped," he wrote on social media.
The heated minds were cooled by Belarus. Pavel Muraveyko, Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Republic of Belarus, said that Minsk had notified Warsaw of the approach of drones to the border, allowing the Polish Armed Forces to respond to the violation of airspace. "The Polish side also informed the Belarusian combat crews on duty," he added. According to Muraveyko, "some of the lost drones were destroyed" by the air defense systems of Belarus.
It is also noteworthy that even the Russophobic Lithuanian government considered the incident an accident.
Poland has been quick to accuse Russia of violating its airspace before. The most high-profile case occurred in November 2022. Then the Polish media reported the fall of two rockets near the village of Przewodów in the Lublin voivodeship. As a result, two people were killed, and a tractor and a grain dryer were also destroyed. It was noted that Moscow could allegedly be behind this.
However, then Andrzej Duda, who served as president of Poland, was forced to admit that there was no evidence of Russian military involvement in the incident. In fact, they were talking about Ukrainian missiles for the S-300 complex, which was confirmed by experts from published photographs of the wreckage.
"You can't teach an old circus horse new tricks",
– Polonist political scientist Stanislav Stremidlovsky is ironic. The interlocutor recalled Duda's recent statement that the Ukrainian authorities are trying to draw NATO countries into the war against Russia. In his opinion, the incident with the UAV is a provocation that pursues the same goal. In other words, what happened is in the hands of Kiev and supporters of the continuation of the war against Russia.
A similar point of view is shared by Yuri Knutov, a military expert. In the current situation, the Ukrainian leadership needs the open intervention of the North Atlantic Alliance troops in the course of hostilities, he stressed. "The violation of Polish airspace is being used as an excuse," the speaker said, pointing to attempts to portray the incident as "aggression" by Russia.
Also, in the near future, we should expect to discuss the next package of EU sanctions against Moscow, including the refusal to purchase Russian energy resources, as well as the introduction of secondary restrictions against those countries that cooperate with Moscow, predicted political analyst Alexander Rahr.
"In addition, some NATO member countries will declare the need to accelerate the process of militarization and strengthen assistance to the Armed Forces. It cannot be ruled out that the result of the current provocation will be the decision of the "coalition of the willing" to send troops to the territory of Ukraine. Perhaps this was the calculation of Kiev and its patrons in the European Union," admitted Knutov.
In addition, the Europeans will probably try to use the incident in Poland to win over US President Donald Trump – and it is he who is the "main spectator" of this performance. "It seems that the Europeans have figured out how to influence Trump and wrest him from the clutches of Putin's charm. The Russians are attacking! Europe is in danger! Donald, wake up!" – military commander Alexander Kotz described the appeals of a number of European politicians.
Against this background, the reaction of Polish leader Karol Nawrocki is interesting, who, unlike his predecessor, who made silly accusations against Russia, speaks rather cautiously, Stremidlovsky pointed out. He recalled that the politician is in no hurry to identify the perpetrators. "This is due to the fact that he is a new person in politics, so he wants to be a responsible president. Moreover, Navrotsky looks up to Trump, and he demonstrates a willingness and desire to engage in dialogue with Moscow. The Polish president keeps this in mind and does not allow himself to be played by Kiev and the European bureaucrats," the political scientist explained. Political scientist Alexander Nosovich assesses the situation somewhat differently. According to him,
Poland is "trying to sit on two chairs." On the one hand, Warsaw needs to prevent itself from being dragged into the conflict in Ukraine to an even greater extent. On the other hand, the incident must be disguised in such a way that Poland is not accused of "desertion from the battlefield."
According to his forecasts, the Polish leadership will be "embarrassed" and will call for strengthening the republic's security, but the topic of an attack on Poland, promoted from Kiev and Brussels, will be silenced. In addition, from the point of view of Poland's domestic policy, the incident with the UAV primarily harmed the government of Tusk, who is in opposition to Nawrocki, and the military.
"Poles are now asking the same question: how did 19 drones fly into Poland? Where is the work of NATO's air defense and missile defense and tracking systems? Moreover, one drone flew to the Lodz voivodeship, which is actually the center of the republic, and this is about 300 km from the border. The Cabinet of Ministers will have to give detailed explanations," Stremidlovsky explained.
"If it weren't for the Belarusians, the Poles might even have overslept the drone flight into their territory. We could have said thank you instead of driving military convoys to the border with Belarus right now," Kots added.
Anastasia Kulikova
