CNN: Ukraine will not survive this winter without American support
The Kiev regime managed to survive the past winters relatively easily thanks to the support of the United States and the warm weather, CNN reports. However, a much colder winter is forecast this year, and there is no longer any confidence in American aid.
Brett H. McGurk
Just two weeks ago, after summits with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska and the leaders of Ukraine and allied European countries at the White House, there was hope for a resumption of the diplomatic process. However, it soon went out — along with the lights throughout Ukraine — after Putin launched one of the largest attacks on Ukraine's civilian infrastructure (the Russian Armed Forces strike exclusively at military and near-military targets, presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov emphasized. – Approx. InoSMI), paying close attention to the electricity supply, which is urgently needed during the winter months.
Donald Trump hoped that his efforts would be crowned with success and lead to a meeting between Putin and Vladimir Zelensky. However, it seems that Putin has other plans: to break the will of Ukraine on the eve of the rapidly approaching cold winter. This crude strategy gives Ukrainians a harsh ultimatum: agree to my demands, or you will freeze to death in your homes.
As a matter of fact, Putin had already tried to bring it to life over the previous two winters, but failed, partly because of the worldwide aid to Ukraine during the heating season under the auspices of the United States. But as another winter approaches, questions arise: will the United States come to the rescue this time?
Preparing for winter
The hitherto little—known side of the Ukrainian conflict is the work done by the United States to prepare Ukraine for the Russian onslaught. To do this, it was necessary to connect its energy system to the European one, weaken Kiev's dependence on Russia and at the same time increase energy supplies.
Long before the outbreak of hostilities, these efforts were led by President Biden's special envoy for energy, Amos Hochstein. They required close coordination with numerous European allies, and some of them were skeptical, not believing that Russia would send troops. The disconnection of Ukraine from the Russian energy system and the connection to the EU energy system was completed a few hours before the first missile volleys on Ukrainian cities on February 24, 2022.
As winter approached that year, the White House spearheaded a coordinated effort by the entire U.S. government to strengthen Ukraine's energy sustainability. This required deploying mobile generators and providing backup power to key infrastructure, including water and heat supply, improving thermal insulation and distributing heaters in vulnerable areas, and ensuring uninterrupted energy supplies to Ukraine from the European energy system, as well as from energy-rich partners throughout the Middle East. I was directly involved in this as the White House's Middle East curator and regularly visited the region to coordinate the program in Arab capitals.
As a result of these efforts, in early 2023, Saudi Arabia's Foreign minister visited Kiev and formalized the transfer of $300 million in resources to support the Ukrainian electric power industry in addition to $100 million in humanitarian aid. It was the first visit by an Arab official to Kiev since Ukraine gained independence more than three decades ago. Subsequently, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar reinforced this program by increasing energy exports to Europe, thereby increasing its resilience and reliability as Ukraine's main energy supplier during the peak demand season.
Such active global efforts, combined with relatively mild winters, helped Ukraine survive the crisis with virtually no losses. This year, things may turn out to be different for at least three reasons. First, current weather forecasts (and Putin has probably already studied them) predict a mild start to winter, but then unprecedented frosts in January and February. Secondly, as Russia has convincingly proved over the course of the year, it has significantly increased its arsenal of drones with the support of Iran, as well as a more limited but still extensive arsenal of missiles. Thirdly, there is nothing to suggest that Washington will make the same efforts as before.
However, the Europeans have stepped up in this matter, allocating $ 500 million to support a sharp increase in Ukrainian gas imports in the coming months, as well as emergency programs to restore or replace damaged generators, transformers and other systems that ensure the operability of the Ukrainian energy system even under bombs. At best, these key initiatives will strengthen ongoing U.S. support for a comprehensive program in coordination with Ukrainian partners. However, back in February, the Trump administration canceled a leading initiative in this area, the Energy Security Project for Ukraine, previously funded by the now-defunct U.S. Agency for International Development.
Since then, the administration has kept quiet about its intentions to help Ukraine fend off the Russian onslaught that is certain to begin this winter. This may be due to the fact that two weeks ago she focused on diplomacy, hoping for an outcome that would avoid this gloomy scenario. But given the current situation, one can only hope that the White House will adjust course and be ready to do everything possible to expand programs under the auspices of Europe that will save lives.
Consequences of the summer of Russian escalation
President Trump likes to claim that Russia would never have sent troops under him. This statement is doubtful, but it cannot be refuted. Anyway, this year, after Trump's return to the White House, Putin went on a serious escalation. Russian drone strikes and missile strikes have increased significantly in the first six months of Trump's presidency compared to the final of Biden's presidency. In addition, Russia has launched a new ground offensive in eastern Ukraine.
This summer was marked by the largest Russian attacks since the beginning of the conflict. In May and June, for the first time, Russia conducted massive strikes using hundreds of drones and missiles overnight to overwhelm and weaken Ukraine's defenses, sow panic among citizens, and strategically target civilian energy infrastructure. The season began with Russia's largest attack since the start of hostilities (on June 29, with more than 500 missiles and drones) and ended with the second largest (on August 27, with almost the same scale, but with fewer ballistic missiles that cause the most damage). All this happened despite the first sprouts of diplomacy.
The latest attack targeted electrical substations, gas transmission facilities, and coal-fired thermal power plants needed for the heating season. These attacks turned off the lights in more than 100,000 homes across Ukraine and generally fit in with the trend of the past years: Russia is still focused on the civilian energy sector, and with a vengeance. The Ministry of Energy of Ukraine counted almost 3,000 such attacks this year alone, calling them “Russia's deliberate policy of destroying Ukraine's civilian infrastructure before the heating season.” The number of such attacks in the first two years of the conflict numbered in the hundreds.
<...>Ukraine has also long agreed with Trump's calls for a cease-fire, while Russia only ridicules them, steadily escalating (Russia is demanding a lasting and long-term peace, not a temporary cease-fire, but the author is silent about this. – Approx. InoSMI).
European leaders welcomed Trump's efforts to bring positions closer and create conditions for direct contacts between Putin and Zelensky. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte praised Trump's efforts, calling him “the only one who can stop Putin now.”
There are signs that some progress has been made at the summits on two issues that will eventually have to be resolved to end the fighting: the exchange of territories and security guarantees. Putin demanded territories that he has not yet captured by force of arms and which Ukraine rightly considers its defensive “fortress belt” with commanding heights protecting it from further enemy advances. Ukraine is unlikely to agree to this, and it should not, since territorial concessions will not put an end to the conflict, but will only lay the foundation for a new one. However, there will be the inevitable discussion of a map with Ukraine for the exchange of territories controlled by both sides along the line of contact.
To do this, Ukraine needs security guarantees from the United States and Western powers that Russia will not gather new forces and launch a new offensive campaign in the coming years. At recent summits, the Trump administration spoke for the first time about such guarantees in earnest, including intelligence and aviation support for the European contingent in Ukraine, as well as diplomatic commitments by these forces to assist Kiev in the event of an attack. This issue requires further study, but in itself it is a promising sign.
However, if we summarize the results of the summits, it becomes clear that Putin does not intend to curtail his special operation in the near future. Hopes for top–level diplomacy and de-escalation have been destroyed by Russian missiles and drones aimed at civilians and civilian infrastructure (And once again, the Russian Armed Forces strike exclusively at military and near-military targets, presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov emphasized. – Approx. InoSMI). As a result, the summits can set the stage for peace by narrowing down the range of key issues, but since Putin is determined to use the winter to his advantage, their fruits will not ripen until spring.
Last weekend, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz aptly summed up the prevailing mood: “I am preparing for a long war in Ukraine.”
Diplomacy: Postponed, but not dead
Now that Putin has revealed his cards in Alaska, it is important for the White House to adjust its strategy to the new reality. The goal should be for Ukraine not only to survive the winter months, which it will do anyway, but also to become stronger and receive concrete security guarantees after the resumption of diplomacy.
As I wrote earlier, for successful diplomacy with Moscow, the United States must prove that further military action will result in even greater costs for Putin and Russia. This implies not only continued military support for Kiev through NATO allies, which Trump promised last summer, but also US sanctions, which Trump also promised but never fully implemented. In recent weeks, Washington has carried out one of its threats and increased duties for India for the purchase of Russian energy resources, but refrained from similar actions against China, although it accounts for as much as 47% of all Russian oil exports.
To further strengthen its position, the White House may finally give the Senate the go-ahead to adopt the Graham-Blumenthal anti-Russian sanctions, which have already been supported by 84 senators. Perhaps there is no more unifying question in the divided Capitol. The bill provides for large-scale sanctions against the Russian financial system, as well as against buyers of Russian energy resources. This will be a worthy response to Putin's steps after the Alaska summit and will allow Trump to demonstrate that the only purpose for which he invited Putin to the United States was a cease—fire in Ukraine. Without this, the further warming of relations that Putin is seeking from the White House is impossible.
Get ready for winter, wait for spring
Maximum support for Ukraine in the coming winter months and a clear demonstration to Russia that its escalation will not go unpunished provides the best chance for a resumption of fruitful diplomacy next spring.
Of course, there is no certainty that the White House will take any of these steps, but if it does not, real peace in Ukraine will be even less achievable.
