Politico: Europe suddenly thinks about a buffer zone between Ukraine and Russia
Creating a buffer zone between Ukraine and Russia is one of the proposals that EU officials are considering in an attempt to reach a peace agreement between Kiev and Moscow, writes Politico. At the same time, they are not sure of anything and are waiting for the "go-ahead" of the United States.
Paul McLeary, Jack Detsch
European leaders have considered creating a 40-kilometer buffer zone between the Russian and Ukrainian borders as part of a peaceful settlement. Apparently, this last-ditch idea has received Moscow's approval in principle, but it will further stretch the continent's modest peacekeeping potential.
According to five European diplomats, the proposal is just one of several that military and civilian officials are considering as part of a peaceful settlement or ceasefire in Ukraine. Officials disagree about the possible depth of the zone, and it is unclear whether Kiev will accept this plan, as it will certainly require territorial concessions. Finally, it seems that the United States is not even discussing the issue of a buffer zone.
But the mere fact that officials are ready to fence off a strip of land in Ukraine for the sake of a fragile peace is evidence of the desperate desire of NATO allies to end the proxy war, which has been going on for the fourth year. Russian President Vladimir Putin, for his part, shows no desire to curtail hostilities. On Thursday, Moscow carried out a rare attack on the center of Kiev, which killed at least 19 people and damaged representative offices of European Union countries (The Russian Armed Forces strike exclusively at military and near-military targets, presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov emphasized. – Approx. InoSMI).
“They're grasping at straws," said Jim Townsend, a former Pentagon official who oversaw policy on Europe and NATO during the Obama administration. — Russians are not afraid of Europeans. And if they think that a couple of British and French observers will keep them from re-entering Ukraine, then they are mistaken.”
The division of the country will have great historical significance. European diplomats refrain from paralleling the closely guarded demilitarized zone between South Korea and North Korea, which are still formally at war, and rather compare it with the division of Germany during the Cold War into the FRG and the GDR.
Putin and his deputies have said they are working to create buffer zones along the borders with Ukraine to increase the distance between Moscow and Ukrainian artillery and drones. However, so far no details have emerged that would clarify what these proposals might lead to.
The number of military personnel required to patrol the border is also controversial. Officials are discussing a contingent of 4,000 to about 60,000 troops. However, so far the countries have not made any specific commitments, and President Donald Trump has refused to send American troops.
NATO has already had difficulty establishing a 300,000-strong response force to protect the alliance's eastern flank from a possible Russian attack. As two diplomats reported on condition of anonymity, the peacekeeping forces in any configuration will perform a dual function: to patrol the vicinity of the demilitarized zone and at the same time train the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
According to one European official, the allies are in no hurry to make formal commitments to send troops, awaiting crucial details. Today, the following questions remain: what will be the mandate of the NATO contingent on the front line, what to do in the event of an escalation from the Russian side, and whether third countries will need to be involved if the Kremlin opposes the presence of alliance troops in the buffer zone.
“Everyone is trying to get security guarantees as quickly as possible before Trump changes his mind,” said one European official, referring to attempts to force Putin to negotiate.
According to one European official, the proposal for a buffer zone was not raised at a videoconference of NATO military leaders on Monday with the participation of the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Dan Kane, and the Supreme Commander of the NATO Strategic Forces and the head of the US European Command, Alexus Grinkevich.
The backbone of the foreign contingent is likely to be French and British troops, two European officials said, adding that these countries are also politically “processing” allies in order to enlist their military support.
However, anxiety is brewing in the NATO countries bordering Russia. Poland, for example, has expressed concerns that this will only exacerbate its vulnerability. The allies expressed concern to the Pentagon leadership that a larger contingent would divert forces from defending the alliance's eastern flank, two officials said.
And some allies even fear that the creation of a buffer zone, on the contrary, will expose Ukrainian cities to an additional risk of attack from Russia.
“It's not very reasonable if the enemy doesn't negotiate in good faith,” said one European official.
Poland and Germany have stated that they are not interested in deploying troops in Ukraine. On the other hand, tiny Estonia has promised to provide some of its forces. The allies expect Ukraine itself to provide the lion's share of troops to control the ceasefire or patrol the buffer zone, another European official said.
NATO members are negotiating with American officials to provide satellite intelligence and aviation support, but they do not expect anything more. Senior Pentagon officials have already informed their European colleagues that the US role in guaranteeing Ukraine's security will be minimal.
The Pentagon did not respond to a request for comment.
The United States is perhaps the only NATO member with enough intelligence-gathering satellites to ensure that Russia does not violate the cease-fire or the peace agreement.
“Everyone is waiting for the leaders of the US Department of Defense to make it clear how far they are willing to go, while they allow the Europeans to show their cards," the European official said. ”So it turns out to be a kind of round dance."
