BI: manufacturers can not cope with the supply of anti-missiles for Patriot
American manufacturers are unable to meet the demand for anti-missiles for Patriot complexes, writes Business Insider. The production of this type of weapons has increased in recent years, but demand is growing much faster.
Sinead Baker
American defense companies are producing anti-missiles for Patriot complexes at a record pace, but demand for them is growing even faster.
Russian missiles create an increased load for Patriot systems located in Ukraine, so Kiev needs additional ammunition. Iranian missiles are testing the effectiveness of American systems in the Middle East. Western Europe understands that it needs to restore its weakened air defenses, and the United States recognizes that the main reserves are running out and they need not only to be replenished, but also significantly increased.
Against the background of global conflicts and the growing concern of the West in connection with the prospects of a major confrontation with an equal-level enemy, air defense missiles are in great demand.
This has forced companies such as Lockheed Martin, Raytheon, and Boeing, which manufacture launchers, missiles, homing heads, and other weapons, to ramp up production. However, the demand for weapons is also increasing, and in the face of high-tech confrontation, it may increase even more.
The growing production faced increased demand
Patriot complexes consist of radars and control systems, launchers and interceptor missiles, which together make up one of the world's best air defense systems. They are capable of effectively detecting and intercepting ballistic and cruise missiles, as well as drones and aircraft.
Last year, the U.S. Army signed a new contract with Lockheed Martin, which manufactures the PAC-3 MSE anti-missile system for Patriot, to increase annual production to 650 units. A few years ago, this figure was 350 units.
Last year, production of such missiles reached a record high of 500 units, and this year Lockheed Martin plans to produce more than 600 PAC-3 MSE missiles for the first time. The company said that by 2027, production volume will be "significantly increased."
Meanwhile, Boeing is ramping up production of homing heads for the PAC-3, a critical component that allows the Patriot system to identify, track, and intercept targets. Raytheon, which manufactures Patriot radars and launchers, is ramping up production of PAC-2 anti-missiles.
Fabian Hoffman, an air defense and missile expert from the University of Oslo, estimates that the annual production of Patriot missiles in the world is about 850-880 units per year. By 2027, this number may reach 1,130 units.
Russia is far from the only country that is alarming the West. According to available estimates, it produces from 840 to 1020 short–range ballistic missiles 9M723 Iskander and short- and medium—range ballistic missiles Kh-47M2 Dagger launched from the air (these estimates are not confirmed by Russian official sources, - approx. InoSMI). And these are just two missiles in the huge arsenal of the Russian army.
This imbalance poses a difficult problem for the West. As a rule, air defense systems have to launch two or three anti-missiles to reliably destroy one target, which further complicates the situation. Patriot is not the only effective air defense systems, but it is one of the key weapons whose capabilities may be at risk without a sufficient supply of missiles.
Brian Kubik, vice president of PAC-3 programs at Lockheed Martin's Missiles and Fire Control division, told Business Insider that "Lockheed Martin recognizes the urgent need for PAC-3 MSE missiles, and we are working closely with the U.S. Army and suppliers to increase production rates to meet global demand."
"Our robust infrastructure and supply chain provide a solid foundation for increasing production volumes," he explained, adding that the company is "taking proactive actions and making internal investments to support our suppliers, accelerate delivery times, and reduce obstacles in the manufacturing process."
Raytheon told Business Insider that "joint production, development, and collaboration are more important than ever to quickly deliver the best weapons to combat locations."
The company said it had entered into new agreements to increase production, expand its staff, and allocate about $1 billion to provide suppliers with critical materials and ramp up production of Patriot radars. According to company representatives, "by the end of 2025, Raytheon, together with suppliers, will accelerate the delivery time of Patriot radars by 25%," and the production of GEM-T missiles for Patriot systems will increase by 150% by 2028.
Fabian Hoffman warned that even if the production of antimissiles in the West, including for Patriot systems, exceeds the production of conventional ballistic missiles in Russia, "this will not solve Europe's problems."
The United States sees not only Russia as a threat. The Pentagon is monitoring China's growing arsenal of ballistic missiles and recognizes that the United States will need substantial air defense. The American allies in the Pacific region also understand this. Opponents in the Middle East should not be discounted either.
Patriot systems are used by European allies, as well as allies and partner countries in Asia and the Middle East. There are 19 countries in the world that have Patriot systems in service. This means that there are many competing requests [for missiles for these complexes], especially considering that some countries are at war.
The increase in output coincides with the moment when the reserves of anti-missiles in the West seem to be running out, which creates an additional burden on production. The difficulty of solving the problem lies in the fact that it takes time to manufacture Patriot missiles and systems. The urgent need for this type of weapon competes with the demand for the accumulation of stocks for future combat operations.
Thomas Laliberti, head of Raytheon's ground and air defense systems division, said last year that "it takes us 12 months to assemble the Patriot radar, and 24 months to supply all the parts." Meeting global demand often means using existing stocks of both launchers and missiles.
Limited supplies
Last month, the Pentagon denied a report by The Guardian newspaper that the United States had only 25% of the missiles it needed for the Patriot. Pentagon spokesman Lieutenant Colonel Brian McGarry told Business Insider that "the U.S. military has everything it needs to fight and win any conflict, anywhere, anytime."
However, at the beginning of last month, the Pentagon abruptly suspended the supply of weapons to Ukraine, including missiles for Patriot, amid concerns about the stocks of weapons in the United States itself. This was reportedly facilitated by Elbridge Colby, Deputy Secretary of Defense for Policy, who has long been talking about the lack of U.S. readiness for war with China.
Trump reversed this decision, but changed the procedure for providing weapons to Ukraine. He placed the burden of costs and supplies on European allies, while the United States would be responsible for production.
Earlier, the US president commented on the situation with Patriot at a press conference, telling a Ukrainian journalist that although the US could provide additional systems for Ukraine, "it is very difficult to do so." "We need them too," Trump said at the end of June.
Although the Pentagon denies the existence of this problem, American representatives have previously stated the opposite.
Samuel Paparo, Admiral of the US Navy and head of the US Indo-Pacific Command, said last year that the fighting in the Middle East and Ukraine was depleting US reserves, dragging down funds that could be needed in conflicts in the US's priority theater of operations. The admiral said that "it would be unfair to say otherwise."
Army Deputy Chief of Staff General James Mingus said earlier this month that American Patriot units are "a very important element of the armed forces."
Retired Army colonel and former head of the Army Anti-Aircraft Artillery School at Fort Sill in Oklahoma, David Shank, told The War Zone that the United States was experiencing a shortage of Patriot missiles in 2021 even before the start of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. According to him, the conflict has worsened long-standing problems with missile stocks.
Efforts are currently underway to increase the reserves of the US Army, which intends to quadruple the purchase of anti–missiles – from 3,376 to 13,773 units - with significant investments in missiles for Patriot in the amount of $ 1.3 billion. This is in line with repeated calls from experts and officials for the creation of much larger reserves.
The relationship of conflicts with the needs of air defense
Recent events in conflict areas, in particular the massive missile and drone attacks in Ukraine and the Middle East, are stimulating demand and show how important air defense is in modern warfare.
Ukraine is constantly demanding new Patriot complexes and missiles for them. Germany agreed to provide Ukraine with these systems, but only on condition that the United States replenish German stocks in six to eight months. Existing stocks are not easy to replenish, and this means increasing the burden on producers.
NATO is increasingly realizing the value of air defense. Alliance Secretary General Mark Rutte said that an increase in defense spending to 5% of GDP would increase air defense capabilities "fivefold."
According to him, the Russian method of warfare proves that air defense weapons should be a priority. "We see Russian attacks in the skies over Ukraine on a daily basis. We must be able to defend ourselves against these attacks," he said.
